1. Jay Bruce - OF - Louisville
Who is surprised by this one? I doubt anyone. Jay came into the year trailing Homer Bailey as the Reds Top Prospect, but he closed that gap very quickly and took it over as the season continued. As he would go on to win both Baseball America and The Sporting News Minor League Player of the year, he cemented his status as the best prospect in baseball, not just the Reds system. Starting his season in Sarasota, he would hit .325/.379/.586 in the pitchers heaven that is the Florida State League (his .965 OPS in the FSL was only the second .900 or higher OPS since 2000 of a player 20 or younger in the league, Matt Kemp has the other, when he posted a .918 OPS). After 27 doubles, 5 triples and 11 HR in half a season he was promoted to AA Chattanooga. He played 16 games before an injury to Dewayne Wise led to his promotion, which was originally supposed to only be for 1 week, to AAA Louisville. After hitting .333/.405/.652 with 7 doubles, a triple and 4 HR in just 66 at bats Jay would not spend any more time in AA. As a 20 year old now in AAA, the lefty from Beaumont, Texas was not phased by the promotion as he would hit .305/.358/.567 with 12 doubles, 2 triples and 11 HR in 187 at bats. His stats over the entire season were incredible as he hit .319/.375/.587 over A+, AA and AAA as a 20 year old. If there are no trades or injuries, I would expect Jay to start in Louisville again next season with Griffey, Dunn and Hamilton as the starting outfielders in Cincinnati.

Photo: Tim Evearitt
   
2. Homer Bailey - RHP - Cincinnati
Homer came into the season as a Top 10 prospect in all of baseball and the Reds Top prospect. Starting his season in Louisville, Bailey went 6-3 with a 3.07 ERA and allowed 49 hits in 67.1 innings while striking out 59 batters (who hit just .204 against him). There were rumblings that he was relying on his fastball a little too much, and while he wasn’t allowing runs, his strikeout rate was not where it had been in the past. Bailey was promoted to Cincinnati, where he had his ups and downs (mostly while he was pitching injured, which can be seen by looking at his first and last three starts with the Reds that yielded an ERA under 4.00, while the three in the middle where he was pitching with an injured groin yielded an ERA much higher than that) but he finished strong the season healthy and strong with three starts at the end of September (2-0, 3.71 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 17 innings). The season may have been a slight loss in terms of arm strengthening as he only threw 120.2 innings this year (not counting rehab in the ST complex after the Milb season was over). Homer still has top of the line stuff with a mid 90’s fastball that can hit the upper 90’s to go with his knee buckling curve that made HUGE improvements in terms of consistency this year and his change up that is still developing. I would expect him to break camp with the Reds next season with the #3 or #4 spot in the rotation depending on any trades or free agent signings.

   
3. Johnny Cueto - RHP - Louisville
Last years Reds Minor League Pitcher of the Year began his season back in Sarasota where he ended it last year. He spent half of his season in Sarasota as he went 4-5 with a 3.33 ERA, 72 hits, 21 walks, 72 strikeouts and just 3 HR allowed in 78.1 innings. He was promoted to AA Chattanooga where he would go 6-3 with 77 strikeouts and just 11 walks in 61 innings while allowing 52 hits. In the middle of that though, he had a short lived promotion to AAA to fill in for openings made by guys getting called up to Cincinnati and in 4 AAA starts he went 2-1 with 21 strikeouts, 2 walks and 22 hits allowed in 22 innings. On the entire season, the Dominican right hander went 12-9 with a 3.07 ERA, 170 strikeouts, 34 walks, 11 HR allowed and 146 hits allowed in 161.1 innings. Cueto has all the stuff that could make him a top of the rotation guy, with his fastball that sits 91-94 MPH and has hit 99 MPH before, a plus slider and an above average change up. I would expect Cueto to begin his season in AAA Louisville and be right there with Matt Maloney as a guy they would look to call up the first time they need a starter in Cincinnati.

 

Photo: Tim Evearitt
4. Joey Votto - 1B - Cincinnati
Votto was last years Hitter of the Year in the Reds system. This year he began his season in Louisville and he struggled big time in April, as he hit just .192/.347/.346. The problem was, Votto needed glasses, but he didn’t get them until May. Well, he caught fire in May as he hit .402/.496/.618 with 6 HR and he just continued to hit the rest of the way as he finished up the AAA season with a .294/.381/.478 line before getting his call up at the start of September. Playing some left field mixed in with some time at first base, Votto showed that he was ready for the big leagues as he hit .321/.360/.548 with 7 doubles and 4 HR in his Cincinnati debut. For the season combined he hit 26 HR with 75 walks, 125 strikeouts, 18 steals and a .299 batting average. Votto is a complete hitter, as he uses the entire field when he is at the plate, which can be seen by looking at the ball distribution he had on the season (74 balls to LF, 74 balls to CF and 78 balls to RF) who has both patience and the ability to hit his pitch when he gets it. Unless something unexpected happens, look for Joey Votto to be starting at first base next March as the Reds open up their season.

 

Photo: Tim Evearitt

 
5. Drew Stubbs - CF - Dayton
Stubbs was the Reds 1st round draft pick in 2006 and after a shaky performance in Billings last year he began this season with the Dayton Dragons. There were concerns about whether Stubbs could hit enough to warrant his selection at 8th overall and he didn’t show much in the first half of the season with the Dragons as he had a .718 OPS while hitting just .253. Once July rolled around though Stubbs turned things up to a different level as he would OPS .880 from that point forward while hitting .303. Prior to the season there were concerns about Stubbs turf toe and that it could require surgery to have it fixed after the season. Its not known if it has actually happened or not, but given that he was playing injured during the season and the adjustments that he made in the second half of the season at the plate to go along with his gold glove caliber defense, I am quite high on Stubbs (even though I expect others to think I am a little out there for putting him here). I would expect Stubbs to start next season in Sarasota with a chance to get to Chattanooga with a good first half.

6. Todd Frazier - SS - Dayton
Todd Frazier was drafted in the supp. first round this year out of Rutgers. He was sent to Billings where he hit .319/.409/.513 with 6 doubles, 5 triples and 5 HR to go with 18 walks and 22 strikeouts in 160 at bats. He was sent to Dayton for the last week of the season where he hit .318/.375/.727 with 3 doubles and 2 HR in just 22 at bats. For the season he hit .319/.405/.538. In a very small sample size, Frazier struggled against lefties (.623 OPS in 34 at bats), but it might be something to keep an eye on next year. As a hitter he is a little bit of a pull hitter (half of his balls in play went to the left side of the field, while 25% went to the middle and the right side each) but is a good line drive hitter which can be seen by his 23% line drive rate. There are some questions as to whether he will stick at SS, with 3B or even a corner outfield being a possibility for him, but for now expect him to stick at SS. Next season I have a feeling that he will start in Dayton, even though he should start higher than that. Its just a numbers game though with middle infielders that look to be in Sarasota next year.

7. Travis Wood - LHP - Sarasota
Travis had a rough season as he battled with some injuries and only got to throw 46.1 innings on the season. He went 3-2 with a 4.86 ERA and 27 walks to go with 54 strikeouts. He pitched a few starts while injured though, so I don’t put a whole lot into the stats he had this season. He made his last start in July, spent some time rehabbing and came back feeling better than ever and pitched well in Instructional League. At this point with a somewhat lost season, all I need to do is look at his scouting report at see a left hander with a low 90s fastball and what some scouts have called the best change up in the minor leagues for the last two seasons to go along with a developing curveball and he is still a top prospect in the system. I would expect him to return to Sarasota next season to get some more innings on his arm with a possible call up to AA mid season if he is having success.

8. Devin Mesoraco - C - GCL Reds
The Reds 1st round draft pick this year spent his entire season in the GCL. He struggled with injuries (two banged up thumbs) and his adjustment to the pitchers in the league as a hitter. How much the two things are related, I don’t really know at this point. His stat line of .219/.310/.270 doesn’t show much other than he has a solid eye at the plate, but given it was just 40 games, while injured, the amount of stock you should put into should be very little. Defensively, he has all of the tools you want to see in a catcher, and offensively the scouting reports have him as having plus power, although he is more of a pull hitter at this point. He is average speed wise, but he is a catcher so the importance of that is very little. He may need a little tweaking with his swing though as at times he would get out on his front foot. I would expect him to probably begin the season in extended spring training at start in Billings when their season opens up in June, but there is an outside shot that he begins in Dayton if he performs well in spring training.

9. Neftali Soto - SS - GCL Reds
Soto was the Reds second of two 3rd round picks, taken 109th overall. Playing his season in the GCL he started out on fire and cooled as the season went along, but also had limited playing time due to an injury (elbow inflammation). He hit .303/.355/.454 with 7 doubles, 5 triples and 2 HR in 152 at bats with 2 steals. At this point in his career, he hits both lefties and righties well, although he does hit lefties better than he hits righties for average, but hit righties for much more power. It doesn’t look like he has the range to stick at SS and given his arm only rates out as average right now, a move to 2B could be in the future for him. As a hitter, he is an above average guy with plus power projection. Depending on things outside of his control, Soto could start in Dayton or Billings with all of the other infielders that could be in Dayton or Sarasota. Given his age its a toss up as to whether he will get time over someone who he may be at the same stage as who is older than he is.

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10. Josh Roenicke - RHP - Chattanooga
Roenicke was drafted out of UCLA where he was a CF and a relief pitcher in 2006 in the 10th round. Roenicke began his season in Sarasota where he made 27 appearances and had 16 saves to go with his 3.25 ERA, 41 strikeouts, 15 walks and 23 hits allowed in 27.2 innings. He was promoted to Chattanooga where he made 19 more appearances where he recorded 8 saves, posted a 0.95 ERA and struck out 15, walked 6 and allowed just 12 hits in 19 innings. For the season he went 3-2 with a 2.31 ERA, 24 saves, 35 hits, 1 HR, 21 walks and 56 strikeouts in 46.2 innings. Roenicke has a mid 90’s fastball and a plus slider at his disposal that profile him as a legit closing prospect. On top of that, he keeps the ball in the park and has ground ball tendencies, getting 55% of his balls in play on the ground. I would take a guess that he begins the season as the closer in Louisville and could get a call up early in the season if the Reds have anything in the bullpen like they

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