11. Kyle Lotzkar - RHP - Billings
Lotzkar was the Reds 3rd pick this season of the 1st Round out of Delta, B.C. Canada. Despite being 17 years old until 2 days ago he performed very well over the two Rookie Ball levels (GCL and Pioneer League). In the GCL the 6′4 righty allowed a hit per inning and struck out 24 batters in 21 innings while posting a 3.86 ERA. He was promoted to Billings for just 2 starts, but they were 8 dominating innings as he allowed just 1 hit and 3 walks over 8 innings and he struck out 12 batters. For the season he had a combined 3.10 ERA, 22 hits allowed, 10 walks, 36 strikes and allowed opponents to hit just .210 off of him over 29 innings. Bringing a low 90’s fastball that has touched 94-95 every now and again and a slurve type pitch, Lotzkar will still need to develop a third pitch. With his age, that doesn’t worry me at all. If he were playing in the United States, he would just be entering his Senior season of high school baseball in February of 2008.

   
12. Juan Francisco - 3B - Dayton
Outside of the guys who were drafted this year, Francisco made the biggest jump from last year to this year as he went from 36 to 12. Francisco has some serious power in his bat, which can be seen by looking at his 25 HR in the Midwest League where he played half a season at the age of 19. He even has a little bit of speed in his legs and a strong arm. He does however have his short comings. His defense needs some work (but how many 20 year old third baseman don’t?), he could really go for cutting down the strikeouts and even more importantly, his walk rate is scary. Even with all of that, he is quite promising. Some think he may eventually move off of third base and into a corner outfield spot due to his current defensive shortcomings and his strong arm, but I am not sure about that just yet given his age and the struggles of most guys his age at the position. Outside of Jay Bruce and Brandon Waring, Francisco has more power than anyone in the system. The Dominican third sacker will likely start in Sarasota where he will be tested with more advanced pitchers and larger ballparks. Hopefully he can improve on that walk rate, as its really the only thing that may keep him from becoming a big time player.

   
13. Danny Dorn - LF - Chattanooga
Danny Dorn may have been the best pick of the 2006 draft. The Cal State Fullerton lefty was taken in the 32nd round, 954th overall. Yes, other guys might be better players and at higher levels, but for where he was taken, he has been an absolute steal of a draft pick. Dorn skipped over Dayton and jumped to Sarasota after running wild on the Pioneer League last season (.354/.457/.573/1.030 line). After struggling in April where he hit just .182/.263/.273, he adjusted to the league and hit like crazy posting OPS’ of .943, .911 and .876 over the next three months before earning a promotion to AA Chattanooga. While he only spent a month in Chattanooga, he just kept on hitting, to the tune of .311/.422/.667 in 90 at bats with 6 doubles, a triple, 8 HR and 15 walks to go against 23 strikeouts. His only downfall is that he does seem to struggle against left handed pitching, although for the season his BABIP against lefties was 100 points lower than it was against right handers. Dorn will probably start back in Chattanooga next season, but could reach Louisville with a good start by mid season.

14. Adam Rosales - 1B/3B - Chattanooga

Rosales is another one of those possible ’steal of the draft’ types. Taken in the 12th round of the 2005 draft Rosales has done nothing but hit while healthy in the Reds system. He lost his 2006 season while playing injured almost the entire season, but he rebounded big time this year. Starting in Sarasota, Rosales hit .294/.394/.488 with 33 XBH and 9 steals. Mid season he got a promotion to Chattanooga where he slowed down his batting average, but hit for a lot more power as he went on to hit .278/.377/.549 the rest of the season with 37 XBH (out of 71 hits). Rosales was drafted as a shortstop but spent most of his year playing first base with some starts at third mixed in as well. Its not out of the question that Rosales starts in Louisville next year, although its just as likely that he could start back in Chattanooga.

 

15. Brandon Waring - 3B - Billings
Waring was the Reds 2007 7th round draft pick out of Wofford College where he was in the running to win National Collegiate Player of the Year. He was second in the nation in HR with 27 as a junior in college and once he signed he hit 20 more HR for the Billings Mustangs, a franchise record. He hit .311/.369/.614 for the Mustangs with 17 doubles, 2 triples and 61 RBI. He got a 1 game promotion to Dayton to help them in the playoffs and he went 1-1 with 2 RBI. That's a 2.000 OPS, it looks real nice on paper. Scouts question whether he will hit enough as he moves up due to a hole in his swing, and it may have shown itself a little bit with 83 strikeouts in 267 at bats. Hopefully the coaches next year can help him with that.

 

16. Chris Valaika - 2B - Sarasota
Valaika was last years Pioneer League MVP, although he probably stole the award from teammate Danny Dorn, who had a much better season last year, thanks to a league record 32 game hitting streak. Beginning his season in Dayton, Valaika hit .307/.353/.493 before earning a midseason promotion to Sarasota. Once in Sarasota he seemed to hit a wall, although he had been slumping for about a two week stretch before being promoted. Chris went on to hit just .253/.310/.332 in Sarasota. His average dropped off 54 points, but more worrisome was that his isolated slugging went from .186 to .079, a drop of 107 points. The FSL is notorious for eating hitters alive, but the 2006 3rd round pick struggled mightily. His line drive rate dropped from 17.8% to 11.7% and the amount of ground balls he hit went from 40% in Dayton to 48% in Sarasota. It will be interesting to see what happens next season with Valaika likely to return to Sarasota as a 2B with Justin Turner also looking like he is heading to Sarasota for the same position.

   
17. Sean Watson - RHP - Sarasota
Watson began 2007 by dominating the Midwest League for 13 starts with his mid 90s fastball and his knuckle curve. He went 5-2 with a 1.88 ERA while striking out 85 batters in 71.2 innings. He was promoted to Sarasota for the second part of the season where he didn’t fare as well. Watson would post a 5.43 ERA in 54.2 innings and allowed 54 hits as well as 21 walks. The biggest surprise though was the 8 HR allowed in 54 innings after allowing just 7 in 71 in Dayton, where it is easier to hit home runs. Watson was a reliever all through out college, so you have to wonder how much gas he had left while in Sarasota. He pitched 126.1 innings this year, which is more than he has pitched in his entire life. Look for him back in Sarasota next year, and with a successful first half, he could get a quick promotion to Chattanooga.

   
18. Justin Turner - 2B - Dayton
Turner actually reached Sarasota this season, but it was just for 6 games. For the season he hit .307/.369/.436. Spending his entire season in Dayton, there were some questions about why he didn’t get a promotion before the last week of the season since he was consistent all season long, and to be honest, I didn’t get it either. Turner is the kind of hitter who will go with the pitch, and he actually hit the ball a lot more often to right field than to left field, which is strange as a right handed batter, although he had the highest line drive rate to left field of any field he hit to and the lowest was to right, where he hit it the most to. Like I said with Valaika, it will be interesting to see how things play out next year. Could the Reds send Todd Frazier to Dayton despite being one of the most advanced prospects they have drafted in quite some time to keep room for Turner and Valaika in Sarasota? With the Reds stating that Valaika is in Hawaii to learn to play second things could shake out very interestingly when April rolls around next year.

   
19. Matt Maloney - LHP - Louisville
I am sure that I will get some heat for ranking Maloney this low with the numbers that he put up over the course of the season. Acquired mid season for Kyle Lohse, Maloney went 4-3 for the Lookouts and Bats in which he threw 45 innings, allowed 27 hits, 9 walks and struck out 62 batters. He did allow 6 HR though. Prior to the trade he had thrown 125.2 innings with a 3.94 ERA and had struck out 115 batters. I want to note that his BABIP before the trade was right at .300, and once he came into the Reds system, it dropped down to .241. Maloney tops out with his 88 MPH sinker that he mixes with a change up, curveball and a slider. The problem with Maloney though is that he doesn’t really have a plus pitch to his name and most of his stuff is average. The numbers look very good, but I think that he will struggle to an extent to get advanced hitters out after they see him.

 

   
20. Pedro Viola - LHP - Chattanooga
Viola was about as unknown as you will find on this list (along with Ramon Geronimo). He didn’t even play baseball in the United States last year. Dayton was his first destination and all he did was post a 1.87 ERA in 43.1 innings, allow 29 hits and strike out 49 batters. He then got a promotion to Sarasota where he had a 0.90 ERA and struck out 28 while allowing just 14 hits in 20 innings. Again, he got a promotion, this time to Chattanooga. Once here, he posted a 0.95 ERA and allowed 12 hits in 19 innings and struck out 17 batters. For the season he struck out 94, walked 30 and allowed 55 hits in 82.1 innings. Next season he could easily start back in Chattanooga, although Louisville is not out of the question for the Dominican lefty.

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