Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections came out for the Cincinnati Reds over the weekend. While there are projections for a lot of guys in the organization available, the one that stands out the most was the projection for outfielder Jesse Winker.
Winker is coming off of a season in which he won the organizations Hitter of the Year Award. Spending his entire season in Pensacola, the 21-year-old hit .282/.390/.433. He got out to a slow start, but over the final three months of the season he would go on to hit .310/.414/.497 with 31 extra-base hits in 81 games.
The ZiPS projections don’t forecast playing time in an exact manner. It tends to give playing time based on past playing time (for example, Devin Mesoraco is projected for 241 plate appearances based on how he’s been around for years, but only put together one full season for various reasons). With that said, it projects Winker for a line of .261/.333/.422 with 23 doubles, two triples and 17 home runs in 541 plate appearances.
For the 37 players that are projected for the Reds (some of which aren’t Reds anymore – they were free agents), Jesse Winker’s projections would place him third on the team in average behind Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips, second in on-base percentage behind Votto and fifth in slugging behind Votto, Frazier, Adam Duvall and Jay Bruce. The system projects Winker to be the Reds third best hitter next season behind only Votto and Frazier.
The system doesn’t really have any other strong outlooks for prospect hitters. It projects Alex Blandino, Phillip Ervin and Yorman Rodriguez in the upper .600 OPS range.
On the pitching side of things there are two prospects that project well. Lefties John Lamb and Cody Reed both get nice projections. Lamb had a projection for a 3.92 ERA in 149.1 innings with 163 strikeouts and 57 walks. Cody Reed is projected for a 4.27 ERA in 137.0 innings with 127 strikeouts and 45 walks.
There are projections for most guys, though Zack Weiss is a notable prospect missing from the list. He is said to be added soon, but still isn’t showing up. Still, go check out all of the projections and remember, these are the average projections, not the best or worst ones for the players.