Late start today, but let’s jump on in. The hottest rumor going around is that J.A. Happ is sitting on multiple two year offers and is willing to sign with the first team that offers him a three year deal. The Reds should go ahead and make this happen, immediately.

As I wrote last week, if the Reds are indeed focusing on Dallas Keuchel, then going after J.A. Happ makes a lot more sense. Over the last three seasons the two have pitched exactly the same number of innings. Happ has allowed fewer hits, fewer runs, has a better ERA, a better ERA+ (126 to 106), has a walk rate only 0.2% worse, and has a strikeout rate nearly 4% higher. Short answer: He’s the better pitcher. He just happens to be a bit older.

Dallas Keuchel seems to be looking at 5-years for a contract, and likely for about $20M per year. On the other side, it seems that J.A. Happ is looking for a 3-year deal, and the projections had him at $13-15M per year. As things stand right now, Happ is the best pitcher on the free agent market. And the Reds could, in theory at least, go get him on a 3-year deal for less money than Keuchel.

It’s still very early out in Las Vegas, so as the day continues this will be updated. You can take a look at the rumors from yesterday, that mostly revolved around the back-and-forth confusion around will or won’t the Reds trade Scooter Gennett.

Update at 1:09pm

The Reds and Indians are reportedly still discussing trades that would involve either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer coming to Cincinnati.

Both pitchers are coming off of seasons that only Johnny Cueto can claim to match as a Cincinnati Red in the last 25 years. The price to acquire either would be very, very high. You would think that any deal, for either, would start with either Nick Senzel or Taylor Trammell, and build from there with other quality pieces.

Updated at 2:00pm

The Cincinnati Reds are reportedly looking at free agent pitcher Wade Miley according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network.

The 32-year-old made 16 starts last season for Milwaukee with a 2.57 ERA. He covered 80.2 innings, allowed just three home runs, walked 27 batters, and had just 50 strikeouts. It was easily the best year of his career went looking at ERA. It was the first year his ERA was above-average since 2013. In 2016 and 2017 he posted ERA’s of 5.37 and 5.61. He’s a ground ball pitcher, but also a low strikeout rate pitcher. His Steamer Projection for 2019 is for a 4.36 ERA and 94.0 innings pitched.

The contract projections have Wade Miley lokoing at a 2-year deal and somewhere between $12M and $14M total.

For all contract sourcing purposes, here are the references: Jon Heyman/Expert Projections, Fangraphs Projections, MLB Trade Rumor Projections.

Updated at 4:35pm

Two things have happened this afternoon that aren’t directly related to the Cincinnati Reds, but sort of are. The first is that Billy Hamilton’s deal is official with the Royals. The official numbers are they he gets $4.25M for 2019, with a mutual option for 2020 at $7.5M. There is a buyout on that option if the Royals decline it at $1M. In 2019 he will also get $100,000 per 25 plate appearances beyond 325, maxing out at 550. That could earn him an additional $900,000 if he reached 550 plate appearances on the season.

In completely unrelated to the Reds news, the Blue Jays released Troy Tulowitzki. He missed all of the 2018 season with bone spurs in both of his heels. He is still owed $38M over the next two seasons. It’s a strange move given that the only thing he’s doing right now is taking up a spot on the 40-man roster. Unless they know something, it’s weird to simply eat all of that money right now rather than wait until the spring and see how his health is progressing.

Updated at 4:45pm

Mark Sheldon is out in Las Vegas breaking news, reporting that the Cincinnati Reds have talked to the Atlanta Braves about a possible acquisition of Ender Inciarte.

Ender Inciarte is the 3-time reigning Gold Glove winner in the National League. He’s a career .289/.337/.390 hitter. In 2018 he hit .265/.325/.380 – which was his worth offensive season since he was a 23-year-old rookie back in 2014 with Arizona. He’s got a friendly contract, owed $5.7M, $7.7M, $8.7M, and a team option for 2022 for $9M (with a $1.02M buyout).

Updated at 5:55pm

It appears that the Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers have discussed moving outfielder Yasiel Puig to Cincinnati.

The tweet by Ken Rosenthal doesn’t seem to specify that the Reds are asking about Alex Wood, like it does Yasiel Puig. Not sure if that is purposeful or not.

Acquiring Puig would certainly be interesting. He would definitely upgrade the team, but it would probably still leave the team without a locked-in center fielder. The team could try Puig there. Or maybe a current internal option between Scott Schebler, Phillip Ervin, or Nick Senzel.

Updated at 6:15pm

Michael Duarte of NBC in LA says the the Reds and Dodgers have had discussions around several Dodgers players.

What’s interesting here is that every single player listed is only under team contract through the 2019 season. Not really sure where the benefit is for the Reds here unless they don’t have to do much of anything to acquire the player(s) in question other than pay some of their salary.

Updated at 7:20pm

Michael Duarte of NBC in LA followed up his previous tweet noting that, essentially, the Dodgers would be making a salary dump in such a move.

We are living in some bizarro world now where the Dodgers are trying to dump salary to the Cincinnati Reds. With that said, if you don’t have to give up much in value and just cover some salary – then this makes sense for the Reds. They can improve on the field today, without really doing any harm to the future.

Updated at 7:50pm

It appears that there could be some 3-way trade talks with the Dodgers and Indians that would include Corey Kluber – but not going to the Reds.

This would be interesting. And I’m sure many would lose their minds over being involved in a deal like this and not landing Kluber. But the only reason to actually get upset would be if the Dodgers landed Kluber for a package of prospects the Reds could have beaten and still been beneficial for them.

But wait! There’s more. Maybe. From Ken Rosenthal:

This is NOT a plan I’d be getting on board with, assuming the kind of prospect the team would have to give up falls in their top four (by my rankings). I’m just not willing to “sell them” in order to get someone else to pay some of Homer Bailey’s contract. I’d rather just hold onto them and pay Homer Bailey to not pitch. If it’s a lesser prospect than one of those top four guys, the math changes quite a bit in my mind.

Updated at 8:20pm

And now Steve Phillips chimes in with what the “prospect” could be in the move.

Gutierrez pitched much better down the stretch than his overall numbers indicate. He’s young, and there’s some stuff there. I had him ranked as the Reds 10th best prospect after the season. You can read all about his season and get a scouting report and watch video here. With that said, he’s the kind of guy that it makes a little more sense to move in a deal where the Dodgers would eat the Homer Bailey contract. The difference between the Puig deal and the Bailey deal is not exactly known because Puig is in arbitration. MLB Trade Rumors says he will get $11.3M. So the difference is roughly $17M.

In terms of the +/- value of a deal where the Reds sent Homer Bailey and Vladimir Gutierrez to the Dodgers for Yaisel Puig – and each team covered the money owed to the players they received – that would be a huge win for the Reds. According to Fangraphs value metric, Gutierrez is only worth about $4M in surplus value as a “Grade 45” pitching prospect.

But, if you bump him up to a “grade 50” prospect, that changes the math quite a bit. That grade of a player is worth $21M in surplus value. Now, to be fair, Fangraphs seems to have a pretty wide gap between 45 and 50 grade guys here. So even splitting the difference, and we call it $12M, that still makes it a fair trade for the Reds. If that’s the deal on the table, it makes plenty of sense for the Reds. Especially if they can then use the money saved to acquire more pieces in free agency.

About The Author

Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another. You can follow him on twitter @dougdirt24, or follow the site on Facebook. and Youtube.

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116 Responses

  1. redlegs4ever

    I’ll post this over here now.

    Might be worth that risky 3rd year for the Reds. Better idea would he be amenable to a very reachable vesting option for the 3rd year? Something like 300 innings over the first 2 years??

    Also I’d like to add why do I feel like the Reds or someone has already offered 3 years and he’s just using it as leverage to get the Yankees to give him a 3rd year? It seems implausible of all the teams looking at him that they all draw the line at 2 years…

  2. Scott C

    If this is the case, then I would be excited that the Reds pulled the trigger and offer him a 3 year deal. Keuchel would be fine but 5 year deals for pitchers are scary.

  3. redlegs4ever

    I’d like to add one thing about Dallas Keuchel…

    He’s pitched his entire career for the Astros, they have money to spend, want to add a SP, and have ZERO interest in resigning Keuchel. I don’t think there’s a bigger red flag than that.

    • Wes

      I think the flag is on Keuchel sign ability and not his pitching ability. Him and his agent thinks it’s 2012 still when everyone gets paid. If he was gonna take a qualifying offer or a 2 year deal to stay in Houston- he’d be an Astro right now.

  4. Norwood Nate

    I agree, if all it takes is a third year the Reds should be scrambling to get this done.

  5. Optimist

    Could not agree more – “The hottest rumor going around is that J.A. Happ is sitting on multiple two year offers and is willing to sign with the first team that offers him a three year deal. The Reds should go ahead and make this happen, immediately.”

    If it’s not done within a day or 2, three conclusions –
    1 – Sad – Happ’s agent is lying (I know – shocking)
    2 – Sad – Reds offered, but he just doesn’t want to join such a project
    3 – Infuriating – the Reds are dinking around negotiating and he goes elsewhere.

    I wonder if we’ll ever know.

  6. Bernie

    If that rumor is true; the Reds need to get that done and a trade for Sonny Gray, sooner rather than later.

      • Bernie

        1 year of control means you don’t have to give up your top prospects. Bleacher Reports yesterday indicated the price could be something like Scott Moss and Alex Powers for Gray; I think we could live with that.

      • MK

        The Yankees have to ask, if Reds are dumb enough to say yes then they win. But that doesn’t mean if Reds say no they won’t take less.

  7. Chris Miller

    Sign Happ, and deal for Kluber or Bauer. Those two would drastically change this team for 2019.

    • Muddycleats

      Agree, but then what n 2-3 yrs SP r gone as r highly rated position prospects…..see Latos deal. At least w/ Latos R starting 8 were n place @ pretty good. I don’t think that’s true now?

  8. Tom

    If they trade for a TOR, what I hope that says is that they really don’t believe in whoever they’re sending in return. Senzel and Greene both have injury stuff. Who knows. Greene for Kluber is a start I can handle. Overall I find it infuriating that the Reds find themselves dealing from their primary resource that was derived from an entire season (or 2 or 3 seasons more likely) of awful, soul sucking baseball just to obtain 2 or 3 years of 1 player who has been elite but on the wrong side of 30. It’s a rigged system if you play that way. Only way to win is to give up players you secretly know will not have a strong chance to succeed.

    • Reaganspad

      That is why you sign Happ and still have 6 years of Senzel, Trammel and Greene

      • Ben

        Spend the money and keep the prospects….you can always make more money…..can’t always make new Senzel, Trammell, and Greene.

  9. redlegs4ever

    Reds interested in Miley according to Morosi, that would be fine on a 1 year deal as the 4th or 5th most impactful move of the offseason.

    • Stock

      I would not even give Miley that much credit. I would rather start Reed and Stephenson than Miley.

      • MK

        I would rather start Garrett than waste money on Miley and put Robbie Scott or Reed in his bullpen role. The Dodger proposal is one I would do although Wood is a 3 at best.
        Doesn’t it seem odd that most Reds deals seem to flow through L.A. and N.Y.

  10. Ben

    I’d much rather sign Happ than trade for the Indian’s pitchers. Trammell is 21 and when he’s ready Kluber might already be gone. Happ makes sense to me as a stop gap to fill the current need until the young talent is ready. I’m trying not to be short sided here because they are more than a piece or two away from winning. No other trade rumors that I have seen have involved any prospects from any team as high as Trammell. Dodgers talk of trading Alex Verdugo for Kluber, Verdugo is 32nd ranked prospect and Trammell is 17th.

    • Doug Gray

      You’re always going to be more than a piece or two away from winning if you don’t try to make big improvements.

      • Ben

        Maybe I should have included that I’m not much of a gambler haha

        My fear is you trade your top prospects for a few years of a good pitcher and then they leave and you have neither that good pitcher or your top talent. I like the 6 year window more so than the 3 year window. I can be patient…

      • RedsinWashst

        You’re talking about a more then 90 loss season. No to trading any of the big 3. We can’t compete with NY or LA. If we are going to be good it will be through the minor leagues, know who we are a small market team.

      • Oldtimer

        Bob Howsam agreed in 1971. He traded his best power hitter and All-Star 2B (ex ROY) for another 2B (All-Star), veteran 3B, unproven SP, and unknown CF.

        That risky trade yielded HOF 2B, multi Gold Glove CF, and reliable SP for the Reds.

        You can’t trade ashes for coal (Howsam said).

  11. A.B.

    Miley doesn’t really move the needle much. I could see that signing causing a million “same old Reds” tweets.

  12. Alex

    Good stuff Doug, totally agree. As is being reported at mlb.com the reds are very much keuchels fall back option and more a negotiating tool he is using I suspect. Which is fine, he is expensive and not worth it. Any trade for a TOR would have to include Trammell or Senzel, for Thor, maybe both. As they are the studs and close to being MLB ready. Not sure it’s sexy for fans, but a gennett trade for a quality reliever (I really have no idea what the market is for him, two relievers? A fifth starter?), signing Happ and Miley and utlizing the new school big bullpen approach could be a savvy way to make the team better and not spend all kinds of money. FO is in a tough spot cause fans prolly want a big splash, perhaps they can sell it as analytical moves.

  13. AirborneJayJay

    Want to hoard prospects? Take a read on this.

    https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/12/10/18133919/baseball-trades-prospect-rankings-top-50-busts

    Senzel and Santillan are untouchable. Trammell is too, but could be included in a whale of a blockbuster trade if it is absolutely necessary. Everyone else is available and can be put on the table.
    Greene and India should start any trade package for a legit top of rotation starter, with at least 3 years remaining. Like Kluber or Syndergaard.

    Kansas City won a World Series with Johnny Cueto. What have the 3 LH pitchers brought to the table for the Reds? Very, very little.
    Prospects are cool. Parades are cooler.

    • Doug Gray

      Maybe I’m wrong here, but I don’t think India can lead the kind of trade you’re talking about.

      • AirborneJayJay

        Not by himself. But with Greene it is a start. The Mets really like India and they have Syndergaard.
        Both the Mets and Indians are looking for some ML ready players along with top prospects. Schebler could be a fit for both teams. It allows the Mets to trade Conforto or Nimmo in a Realmuto trade. Indians need an OF with power and it could allow the Indians to trade E. Encarnacion or Alonso maybe to TB Rays. Iglesias is a fit for both teams.

      • jon

        Hi Doug, why don’t the reds just sign a couple FA pitchers instead of trading away some of their prospects.Why trade when they don’t have to?

    • Tom

      Thanks for the link.

      Here is the take away:

      “But the results are there, and they are compelling: In no metric do the traded prospects look better than non-traded ones, and in almost all of them, they look worse.”

      It’s not to say don’t horde prospects, it says those who are traded end up less successful. This speaks to my hopes that if a trade does happen, it’s because internal scouting has indicated a soft spot in the prospect(s).

    • Big Ed

      JayJay wakes up in the morning, eats breakfast, and tries to figure out a way for the Reds to get rid of Hunter Greene.

  14. redlegs4ever

    Remember the other day when I said Cutch could be good value this offseason? I was wrong, (what else is new??)

    Phillies said they were gonna spend money a bit stupidly lol…

  15. AirborneJayJay

    The Phillies have started to spend their “stupid” amounts of money. Take OF Andrew McCutcheon off the board. A big overpay at 3 years / $50MM.

  16. A.B.

    Would trading for a bounce-back candidate like Alex Cobb (BAL) make sense? 3 years left on his contract which I believe is in the 10-11 million a year range. Probably wouldn’t cost too much on prospects…

    • MK

      Can’t imagine Orioles are prepared to trade anyone as they have taken so long to hire a GM and still have not hired a Manager.

    • Colorado Red

      10 teams on a no trade list.
      Want to bet who is one there?

  17. AirborneJayJay

    I like Doug’s idea of JA Happ. There is a good article by MLB dot com’s Mark Feinsand on the Yankees thoughts.

    “Talks continue with J.A. Happ, whom the Yankees loved during his two-plus months in pinstripes, though a source indicated there are some internal debates within New York’s front office on whether it makes sense to give the 36-year-old left-hander the third year he’s seeking.
    “Happ is aware of our comfort level,” Cashman said. “I know what he’s trying to accomplish. We’ll see if we all match up.”
    The Reds could be nice beneficiaries if the Yankees don’t blink and don’t give him a 3rd year. Dick Williams should be all over this.

  18. AirborneJayJay

    Wow. The Blue Jays just released Troy Tulowitzki and the remaining $38MM he is owed.
    Homer Bailey should be on the lookout for falling axes. But I think that Big Bob Castellini would suffer a massive heart attack if he had to write a check for $28MM to Homer as Homer is walking out the door. It does however, give the Reds brass another item to point to of other teams releasing players with that much $$$ owed to them. Food for thought for the Reds front office.

    • MK

      I sat next to Bob C when Homer was pitching a rehab game in Dayton and he really likes Homer. Had nothing but good things to say about his personality and his ability to win in the future. Haven’t seen him there for other rehab pitchers but Jocketty used to come a lot for those.

    • Doug Gray

      I have no issues at all with the Reds bringing Homer back in the spring to see if he’s got anything left. I highly doubt that he does given what we have seen, but you’re paying him either way. You might as well wait and see how he’s throwing on March 18th before deciding to just let him go.

      And that’s what’s weird about the Tulo move. What do they know?

    • Gooberz

      After all the money jocketty has wasted over the last 11 years?

  19. redlegs4ever

    On this day in 2014 Walt Jocketty made another horrible trade, Alfredo Simon for Eugenio Suarez…

      • redlegs4ever

        Yep, I’m sick of it. Latos for Disco, Straily for Castillo!! Turrrrrible…

  20. The Rage

    Hunter Greene has no value. Pitchers with ligament sprains are ticking timebombs.

  21. redlegs4ever

    Reds have talked to Braves about Inciarte according to Mark Sheldon. He adds nothing imminent..

  22. Jim Delaney

    My prediction is the REDS will spend a little money for window dressing and wind up resigning Harvey, sign Miley and a Hughes/Hernandez type reliever.
    I think HAPP will sign with a team he thinks has a better chance to contend or he and his agent are just playing CHICKEN with the Yankees. If the Yankees instead trade for Kluber or Syndergaard and give up Andujar then they may pass on HAPP but if that doesn’t happen I will be shocked to see HAPP not resign with Yankees. Yankees will likely overpay for 2 years versus what another team may offer for 3 years.
    I am fine with moving Senzel in the right deal, he seems to be an injury prone player with a vertigo condition that could manifest at anytime. I would be fine with moving him for a LEGIT stud pitcher or strong return of young players. Also, currently the REDS don’t have an open position for Senzel, I struggle to see him playing a quality CF. The Padres asked the REDS about Suarez, I would talk to them about Senzel and be willing to trade him for some of there young major league talent and/or close to ready for majors prospects. I would consider dealing Senzel for Margot and one of Luis Urias or MacKenzie Gore. Or instead of Margot both Gore and Urias or maybe one of them plus Logan Allen and another prospect.

    • Colorado Red

      If you read the article. the Pads basically wanted him for Free.
      No top prospects.
      (I did find the article online, not trying to be mean, but the writers offer was a joke)_

  23. Cornelius

    Would trading for Inciarte make you feel better about trading Trammel for an Indians pitcher? Siri/Inciarte is a little bit of a thunder and lightning tandem, and ridiculously cheap. I would feel a lot better about trading TT with Inciarte on the roster but we will see.

    • redlegs4ever

      Nothing would make me feel better about trading Taylor Trammell. Guys gonna be an absolute star…

      • Herzog

        Everyone said that about Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Yonder Alonso, Devin Mesoraco, Robert Stephenson, and many others not on the top of my head.

  24. Optimist

    The BHam deal looks like it exactly hits the arbitration projection when including the buyout and bonuses. Then his career gets very interesting – I’m guessing he becomes a repeat one-year FA for contenders, and wish him well in trying to make repeated post-seasons.

    Doug – As you note, what is up with the Tulo release? Seems like it’s the worst of Bham and Homer – i.e. Billy was a wash in that he got the deal the Reds didn’t want to offer, while the Reds should wait through Spring Training on Homer to confirm he’s a sunk cost like Tulo, but is the league basically going to retire Tulo w/o an offer anywhere? I don’t get it.

    • earmbrister

      It’s as easy as looking at his “Games Played”. Tulo’s highest number of GP in the last EIGHT years is 131. Games played from 2012 on forward:

      47
      126
      91
      128
      131
      66
      0

      Some here think that Senzel can’t stay healthy? Look at the above and exhale.

  25. Choo Choo Coleman

    Nothing in two days. You finish last 4 straight years, and do nothing? Amazing waste of time! Pull the trigger!

  26. redlegs4ever

    Boy this certainly wouldn’t be the first trade between the Reds and Dodgers but I’m pretty sure the first one in which the Reds would be taking back more money lol.

    • redlegs4ever

      Left the important parts out…

      According to Ken Rosenthal Reds and Dodgers are talking deals that involve Dodgers OF’s and/or pitchers. Dodgers want to clear money for other pursuits (Harper).

  27. Nep O'Tism

    -Inciarte would seal up CF. (Hamilton money gone, back to $30m)

    -Then Scooter could be part of the Kluber trade since the Indians had Kipnis at 2B last year, along with Green + Long/Downs + Fairchild (+$10.7m for trading Scooter -$17m for getting Kluber = $24.3m left)

    -Happ in FA (-$15m = $9.2m left)

    -Spend the rest/stretch it a few more million to grab whomever Derek Johnson is more confident in between Gio Gonzalez and James Shields. They can be relied upon for a slightly below average 200 innings (Shields) or a slightly above average 170 innings (Gio), and hopefully Johnson can improve either a bit. Eating up those innings keep Homer/Stephenson/Reed/Romano/etc far away from the starting mound.

    – – – – – – – – – – –

    Senzel
    Winker
    Votto
    Suarez
    Schebler
    Peraza
    Inciarte
    Barnhart
    Pitcher
    (Is passable. Does feel like a bit of a “Meh” 5-9, but could probably win some games.)

    Kluber
    Happ
    Castillo or Gio
    Castillo or Shields
    Mahle
    (Could be a pretty good rotation.)

    Doesn’t seem like a WS team, but certainly one that could be a wildcard team, and we’ve seen before that crazy things can happen if you just make it in.

  28. Good luck with that Lol

    Somewhere, somebody is making up all these rumors. The reds won’t pull any trades because they don’t know how to trade. These trades are laughable. No big horse pitcher is coming here. Reds are just trying to stay relevant but the whole baseball world is laughing at the team and the fans here who really believe all this garbage.

  29. Simon Cowell

    My suspicion is that Senzel, Greene, and Trammel are not being used as trade pieces. Everyone else in the organization is fair game. That means we absolutely have to pick up at least one pitcher via free agency.

  30. Andew

    Salary swap with LA? Kemp for Bailey and a Shed Long type? Who says no? I think Kemp is entering his last year of deal?

  31. NP

    I agree that senzel green and trammel might not be chips the reds are willing to deal. Maybe they are making moves to turn the roster over and win the next few years.

    Acquire Rich hill/Alex Wood and Puig for lower prospects.

    Sign Happ/ Dallas K

    Next season acquire another arm to pair with Dallas, and your a year closer with trammel and siri. Find another OF next offseason. Turn over the roster each year.

    • asinghoff

      My guess is that they are looking for guys that will help them win this year, and then going for guys that will push them over the top next year. Get them back closer to 500 in 19, and in the playoffs in 20.

      That doesn’t mean they won’t sign or trade for guys that will help down the road, it just means they are trying to maximize the current roster and be competitive this coming year.

  32. Jim H.

    Interesting rumors with LA. Sorry if someone else posted something similar, didn’t look through all 75 comments at the time.

    Would consider taking on Puig & Wood if they added Verdugo & a young controllable P. We take on their money, get serviceable ML + future help. Winker-Verdugo-Puig OF this year? Trade Schebler for P or help elsewhere?

    • Alex Reds

      Hi Jim,

      This is the trade that makes the most sense for the Reds.

      The Reds are going no where for two more years. The Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers are all in. All these trades to get better in 2019 or 2020 are a facade and a joke. The Reds can’t really think the fans are that stupid, if they did try to sell us that.

      Yes, you could trade the farm and get Thor or Kluber; but you would still go nowhere for two years; then lose the player and then you rebuild for another 5-6 years. It makes no sense.
      The Reds can’t find a free agent to productively spend $20-30 million because no one wants to sign onto a crappy team. The Reds should either save their money for another more important realistically competitive year. Or, as you mentioned – trade their money to take on bad short term contracts and get top prospects to do it.

      The Reds should absolutely not be dumping Bailey and any of their top prospects to get more money this year. But, it does depend on how good of a prospect is given up.

      Also, I don’t see Puig as a great fit for the Reds. More trouble than he’s worth. However, Joc Pederson is a great fit on the Reds, except for his two year contract.

      A sneaky smart approach for the Reds would be to agree to an extension to get more years out of a player that they are trading for, that way they fit their actual competitive window in a couple of years.

      • Jim H.

        I’d also be up for Inciarte from the Braves or Jackie Bradley, Jr., from the BoSox if he’s available like a rumor stated today. GG defense with more bat, that’s not a step back from Hamilton.

        Pitching-wise, I’d take Wood from the Dodgers. He’s been an above-average pitcher every year, big question is health. I’m a big believer in Castillo and DeSclafani, and I think Lorenzen could slot in the rotation as well. I like Mahle too. Lots of questions, lots of time for answers.

      • Eric

        I would be willing to make this move: Gennett and Bailey and Guiterrez and Long plus 28 million for Bailey in exchange for Wood Puig and Pederson. The money for Bailey makes him a wash. The money we take on with those three means we are exchanging 10.5 million for about 25 million. That saves the Dodgers 15 million and we still have about 15-18 million to spend on Happ.

  33. Ben

    So take Dodgers rental players so they can clear payroll and be right back here next year?! Seems unproductive.

  34. redlegs4ever

    Dodgers want Vlad Gutierrez for Puig according to Steve Phillips. Little steeper than I would like to go if were taking on all the salary.

  35. redlegs4ever

    Rosenthal just followed his first tweet with a variation of a potential deal in which Homer Bailey goes to the Dodgers. He also adds nothing is close.

    Sounds like they’ve been all over the place with this one…

    • redlegs4ever

      I would like to add that Homer Bailey does have full no trade protection via 10-5 rights.

      • Bill

        Good point, but does it really stop a trade. Three ways to trade Bailey:

        1. With Bailey’s approval per the CBA
        2. Place him on waivers and the Dodgers claim him
        3. Dodgers simply send the Reds money equal to Bailey’s salary

        All plausible as Bailey is unlikely to make it to an opening day roster unless he is vastly improved over last year.

      • redlegs4ever

        I don’t think Bailey would use his veto rights.

        And FWIW from what I’ve heard the Dodgers do want Homer Bailey, it’s not unreasonable he is a good pitcher when healthy, as recently as April of this year even…

  36. B-town Fan

    If the Reds could acquire Rich Hill “2018 3.66 ERA” and Alex Wood “2018 3.58 ERA – 2017 2.72 ERA” in a Dodgers salary dump for lower prospects that would be a great deal for the Reds even though they only have one year left on there contracts. It would certainly improve the rotation. It would get them one year closer to Hunter Green and Tony Santillan being up with the Reds, and Derek Johnson working with all the other young pitchers on the staff and they could always try and sign Alex Wood “age 27” to an extension for beyond 2019.

    • scottya

      I agree, although a problem is for 20-21 we will need to make several significant adds to the rotation: Fangraphs Projection & Baseball Reference Projection

      1. Wood 3.56/3.45
      2. Hill 3.63/3.63
      3. Castillo 4.01/3.97
      4. Desclafani 4.34/4.35
      5. Reed, etc. 4.37/4.35
      If all equal 3.98 era/3.95

      So I’d Prefer:
      1. Wood
      2. Kuechal or Ray or Stroman or Bauer
      3. Castillo
      4. Desclafani
      5. Reed, etc.

  37. redleggingfordayz

    Personally I think the Reds are going to try and go after Maeda as the main pitcher coming back. Not sure you really want any pitcher with only a single year of control left. I could see them doing Shed Long + Downs for Maeda and Puig

    • Bill

      Perhaps, but Maeda has been very effective from the bullpen (small sample size not withstanding) and that is where the Dodgers need help. He’s a pretty affordable and reliable swingman.

  38. Bill

    What if the Reds sent RHPs Bailey and Hernandez to LAD in exchange for OFs Kemp and Puig, and LHPs Wood and Hill. The Dodgers would shed ~$35.25M in 2019 (but owe $5M in 2020) and gain a relief pitcher (biggest team weakness) worth about 1.5 WAR. Reds would net gain about 4.5 WAR and would have tremendous flexibility in 2020. The rotation would be mediocre, but improved. Outfield improved affording additional time for Trammel, Friedl and Siri to marinate in the minors. Senzel breaks in playing a variety of positions.

    LF Winker
    CF Puig
    RF Schebler
    3B Suarez
    SS Peraza
    2B Gennett
    1B Votto
    C Barnhart

    C Casali (start 1 of every 3 games)
    IF Senzel (starts 4 times a week)
    OF Kemp (starts 3-4 times a week)
    Blandino or Ervin (both have options to shuttle as needed)

    Castillo
    Hill
    DeSclafani
    Wood
    Mahle

    Iglesias
    Hughes
    Lorenzen
    Wisler
    Stephenson
    Garrett
    Reed
    Romano

  39. Simon Cowell

    The only way Bai.ey starts in 2019 for Reds would be if he pitches other worldly from day 1 of spring training. He will have to show that he is healthy, can pitch 6 shut out innings, and that he is willing to take a reduced role. All 3 must appy or hes a dfa by April

  40. Shawn

    Hello all. From what I heard on the mlb network, Bailey only counts as 17mil toward the luxury tax/payroll in that regard. I guess because the contract is split evenly between the years of the contract. If this is the case, it helps the cause of shedding payroll. I would give up Vlad in the deal, if he is the highest rated prospect and we are going to go after it in 2019, I’m in. Here are some issues I have. The outfield is not good defensively. I guess Ervin could play center in bigger parks. Second, we still need a controllable 1-2 type pitcher. If they done all of this and swung a legit center fielder, I’m in. My post has a lot of ifs though.

    Cheers

    • DanD

      The Braves are looking for a corner OF and if the Reds would get Puig then we can offer a package to Atl for Enciarte with either Winker or Schebler. I can handle an OF of Winker, Inciarte and Puig.

  41. Wes

    Keuchel needs to swallow his pride and take whatever cincy is offering him. I’d much rather have Keuchel the next 3 years than Happ. Happ is at his highest value ever with the majority of his career being a bust. Way to much risk when u can buy super low on Keuchel. Keuchel linked to 3 teams- Braves who won’t pay a ton, Phillies who just signed cutch and are after Harper/Machado and cincy. Cincy has to be favorite as of today and his market is bottoming out.

    Got to love Puig to reds ! Especially for the price of VG. Puig is a great fit in GABP and can reach his full potential there. Get wood and Puig for a package featuring VG and you look like a hero

    Then sign Keuchel and that’s a much improved rotation with an improved line up while add guys w deep playoff experience. Next season u got the additional funds to resign either guy too.

    Winker
    Senzel
    Votto
    Scooter
    Suarez
    Puig
    Tucker
    Peraza

    Fun line up !

    Kuechel
    Wood
    Castillo
    Disco
    Mahle

    • asinghoff

      Winker
      Senzel
      Votto
      Suarez
      Scooter
      Puig
      Tucker
      Peraza

      But yes, that looks like a lineup that can put some runs on the board. Having Schebler and Ervin as your 4th and 5th OFs is a bonus.

  42. Norwood Nate

    Reds missed their opportunity to sign Happ, as he’s going to re-up with the Yankees. It’s disappointing they couldn’t act sooner to offer him a 3 year deal. Now the only top option on the FA market is Keuchel, and his price point and year’s concern me going forward. I don’t think signing him makes much sense for the Reds unless the years or money comes down from his asking price.

    Don’t know how they’re going to address the top of the rotation otherwise, and also not give up their top tier prospects. It’s a tough spot.

    Maybe they circle back around to Greinke.

    • AirborneJayJay

      FWIW, Phillies are huddling up with Keuchel. It probably gets done today.

  43. AirborneJayJay

    JA Happ is gone. Yankees give in first on that 3rd year and will sign him. While Dick Williams and company sleep, the Yankees act.
    What happened to “get the pitching”????

    • earmbrister

      Who says the Reds are sleeping? For all you know, they also offered a 3 year contract, though I personally wouldn’t. While I know that Doug is “hot for Happ”, is he really the best fit for the Reds? If the Reds next window opens in 2019, then by all means. But if it opens in 2021, why would Happ make sense for the Reds? Give me the “somewhat” lesser pitcher in Keuchel for 5 years, and he’ll be around and contributing when the Reds start making the playoffs. Dallas is a TOR pitcher for the Reds in 2019, and would project to be middle or back by the end of the contract. Good fit.

  44. Oldtimer

    Reds will add 2 SP. Trades or free agency. Reds will addition position player (OF).

    75 W in 2019 is a reasonable expectation. 90 W in 2021 is a better target.

  45. scottya

    I’m sure the Reds are concerned about JA Happ proclivity to give up the homerun ball. His rate (HR/9) has been climbing three years in a row. He gives up a lot of fly balls and that may not be a good match for GABP.

    Happ is also going into his age 36 season, I seriously doubt the third year when he is 38 is worth it and that coinciding with our rise into contention makes this a move that may not be worth it.