On Monday we took a look at how the three main players that came to Cincinnati in the Dodgers trade have performed against the rest of the National League Central Division. Today we are going to do the same thing for starting pitcher Tanner Roark. Reminder, these are his numbers against the division – but excluding his games against Cincinnati since he won’t be facing them.
While all of the production matters, the Cincinnati Reds do spend a majority of their season playing teams within the National League Central division. And those games are a little bit more important than the games outside of the division. Each win in the division means a loss for a team you need to finish with a better record than.
With that said, let’s take a look at how Tanner Roark has performed against the other teams within the division.
The reason I chose to look at the last three years, and then the career is that the last three years are more important than the time before that. The newer the data, the more meaningful that it is. Still, I also wanted to look at the career to give it a larger sample size.
Last season was pretty solid for Tanner Roark against the National League Central, except in the home run department. It was the 2017 season where the division really got to the right-handed pitcher. They beat him up to the tune of a 5.93 ERA in his 27.1 innings pitched. The biggest issue was that he walked a lot of guys – 14 of them – during the year. In 2016 he was very good against the division – posting a 1.29 ERA without allowing a single home run and giving up just one runner per inning pitched.
As noted with the breakdown of the players acquired in the Dodgers trade, we shouldn’t really expect a different guy than the one he’s been recently against everyone. There’s not much reason to think a player performs better against one team than the others, short of ballpark factors. But, as also noted, it’s nicer to see success than failure when looking at these kinds of things. And for the most part, Tanner Roark has performed solidly against the division.
The Cardinals have historically given him problems, though. He’s got an ERA of 6.58 against them in 26.0 innings with 10 walks and 15 strikeouts against them. He’s had tons of success against Milwaukee. The Brewers have been held to a 2.68 ERA in 50.1 innings over his career against them. Against Chicago he’s posted a 3.77 ERA in 45.1 innings, and against the Pirates it’s 4.70 in 30.2 innings for his career.
The Reds do not spend the “majority” of their season playing the NL central. They spend 76 games. Close. But not quite.
I still haven’t got a clue on how going 9 – 15 with a 4.50 Era:
a) gets you traded for
b) puts you in position to actually WIN your arbitration case and get a raise to somewhere north of $10M next year.
Sounds pretty worthless unless you’re a team/fanbase who’s used to paying a guy $25M to go 1-14…….
The Homer Bailey contract was signed several years ago. At the time, he was coming off two no-hitters and a promising record. After that, he got hurt and could no longer pitch well.
The problem with signing pitchers to long term contracts is evidenced by Homer Bailey. Hopefully the Reds won’t give more than 2 or 3 years to any FA they might sign.
Krall says Roark is going to
“anchor the rotation “
Tanner changed his delivery mid season last year. It was like a light went on somewhere. If you look at his 2018 pitching splits, the effects of the change was pretty obvious
If he can continue that performance and gives us the expected 150+ innings we traded for, anchoring the rotation is exactly what he will do.
And some :)
Anchor is usually near the end. Roark should be #3 starter (or #4 if they sign better FA) for Reds after Castillo and Wood. Desclafani is oft injured and can’t be counted on except at #4 or #5.
I just want to start a New Year wish in that I hope all players come to training camp in top shape with open interest in learning from the new members that has joined our team this year. (Both coaches and players)
“There’s not much reason to think a player performs better against one team than the others, short of ballpark factors.”
This suggests that perhaps the most meaningful data on these guys would be what you left out . . . how they have performed in the Great American Ballpark, where they will be playing about half their games next year. Perhaps one or both of these pitchers hasn’t pitched in Cincinnati in recent years, but if they have it might be interesting despite the small sample size.
Tanners career splits un GABP are here:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=roarkta01&year=Career&t=p
Small sampling size but good.
When I read that comment, a different thought sprang to my mind. I wasn’t so much concerned how Roark fared in GABP because it would have been against the Reds, and they weren’t great. Instead, I think it is more useful to know how he fared against the other teams in the NL Central when he was playing in their ballpark.
Basically, his NL Central home performance will change drastically with a move from Washington to Cincinnati, but his road performance won’t change (at least not because of the parks). What does that tell us?
He’s not facing the Reds. So how he pitches at GABP doesn’t really matter a lot.
Perhaps a little. Park dimensions,atmospherics etc. matter if you consider what type of pitcher (GB predominant as opposed to FB heavy). The fact that Roark adjusted his delivery last year to emphasizes his slider over his fastball would seem to indicate that he might be even more effective than he was in GABP previously. Not something you would base the trade on, but a favorable sign, perhaps. Again its probably too small a sampling size to draw a conclusion from (22 innings) but at the very least, it might lean a little on a favorable outcome.
I like the trade and if he gives 150+ innings I like it even better.
Hopefully in the next week the Reds will give us a Happy New Years’ with another significant move. Will it be with the Braves for CF Inciarte, Marlins for Realmuto, Yankees for Gray, or Indians for Bauer or Kluber or for free agent P Kuechel 3yr/58mil ?
I would like to add Grandal to your short list. Would love to see him come back.
A lot of people worry about the clubhouse atmosphere with Puig, from what I have heard from players who knew Grandal pre and post Reds drafting him I would be just as concerned with him.
It was nice to see the 3 Dodgers did fairly well against the NL Central. Tanner Roark is a little different in that it has been a mixed bag. Wood and Roark have a lot to pitch for in 2019. A good extension, a good Qualifying Offer or a good multi-year contract in free agency is in store for either if they pitch well. Keeping up their health will be one big issue. The starters on this year’s free agent market who have had injury problems and/or histories are finding it hard to get free agent offers. Harvey, Sanchez and Garrett Richards are about the only ones to have found jobs so far that had injury histories.
I hope both can get in 30-33 starts in 2019. With a good season, Roark could next year be looking at something like Lance Lynn got, 3 years and $30MM. Wood might be looking at 3 years and $45MM with a good year.
With Puig and Kemp, I just have a feeling one of them isn’t going to be around very long. A few teams are in search of a RH hitting OF/DH type.
Maybe Kemp gets traded to TB if they cannot sign Nelson Cruz for Kevin Kiermaier or to Toronto in a package for Stroman/Pillar.
Would not be my first moves for CF/SP but these players would still be able to help at the right cost.
Kemp and Puig are experienced MLB OF with power and they hit RH to boot. Schebler, Winker, and Ervin all hit LH and only Schebler has good power.
Yea, I’m on board with keeping both of the OFs we just traded for 4 sure.
If any combination of Winkie/Scheb/Ervin/Barnhart can bring us back a true CF and we can pickup C Grandal and P Keuchel in free agency then i see us as NL Central Champs…
Ervin doesn’t hit LH
Yep. I got that wrong. Ervin hits RH. But either Kemp or Puig is better MLB quality RH OF than Ervin.
Need a CF? Oakland A’s CF Ramon Laureano, please.
Oakland needs cost controlled starting pitching.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-newest-exciting-oakland-athletic/
I am not familiar with Laureano but his rookie year was really good. Is Fowler their normal CF? Would Robert Stephenson work one for one or would it take Sims? Wisler? a combination of the 3?
I feel like we’ve already made Duvall back (plus some) in the Homer Bailey salary dump…..so, if it takes Wisler/Sims/BobSteve in exchange for a legit major league CF then i say pull the frickin’ trigger!!
Stephenson, Sims and Wisler have little trade value (other than as throw-ins).
@Oldtimer, for a rookie that is blocked by Fowler who only has 156 career AB’s? Ramon Laureano was not even a top 30 prospect going into 2018. With no disrespect to you Oakland needs a controlled SP and you actually think neither of the 3 are worth Laureano?
I would agree with you if I said Ender Inciarte!! At least look who the conversation is about before making a comment….
Yes. None of those three have much trade value. Why would other teams want Reds young P who haven’t been very successful?
None is CLOSE to be a “controlled SP” whatever that is. If he were, the Reds would have used him as SP in 2018.
@oldtimer,Oakland is in a small market and with their pitching injuries and trying to keep their payroll down they can use players who they can control for minimum amount for 5-6 years. How much do you think a rookie who has 156 career ab’s that was not a top 30 prospect is worth? Stephenson, Sims and Wisler have been rated much higher than Laureano.
Oldtimer, you said none of the tree is CLOSE to being controlled at a low price? How many years do the Reds have before they become a FA? is any of them making more than a million. The answer is NO
Two of those P have no options left. Oakland can get them without trading for them. The other has one option left but has not been SP in MLB (just RP only).
Oakland would not trade a promising CF for any of those three P.
Got numbers. W-L and ERA aren’t the total picture but:
Stephenson. Career 7-11 with 5.47 ERA. Last year 0-2 and 9.26 ERA.
Sims. Career 3-6 with 6.01 ERA. Last year 0-0 and 7.47 ERA.
Wisler. Career 16-23 with 5.14 ERA. Last year 1-1 and 4.28 ERA.
Most GMs would not trade promising young CF for any or all of those three.
@DanD Oakland is not a small market. they just act like a small market. They are in the same market as the Giants. It would be like calling the Mets or White Sox a small market. Even the MLB calls the A’s a large market.
@Patrick. Thank you for the correction. The point is not actually being a small or not a small market but acting on a small payroll where it is worth taking a gamble on a SP with their large park for a player with little experience and not a top 30 in the A’s organization.
The Reds are not going to just release 2 players with no options so I don’t know how Oakland will get them for nothing. The Reds will get something if they don’t make the team even it is a player in A ball.
Reading Airbornejayjay post it is really a shame people have to make a big deal out of nothing. Like his post just trying to look outside the box for a CF at a low cost so the money can be spent on pitching. Wish I would have kept my comments to myself because Oldtimer just has to be negative with no suggestions on how to get a CF. And you Patrick being anal on Oakland not being small. Shame your 2 cents was a small percentage of the conversation.
You both have a Great New Year and go Reds!!
The Reds will have to make a decision in ST on two of the three. DFA if not kept.
Oakland can pick them up then. Their trade value is minimal.
The Reds have several CF candidates in MLB for 2019 and several more in MiLB for 2020 and beyond.
Your trade suggestion made no sense whatsoever. GMs aren’t that (ill advised).
Genuinely when someone doesn’t know afterward its up to other people that they
will help, so here it occurs.