While the speculation has long been that the 2021 Major League Baseball draft would be ordered by worst to best record based on the 2020 season, it wasn’t official until now. With a shortened season, and a season that wasn’t certain to be completed when it began, the commissioners office and the Major League Baseball Players Association agreed that the commissioners office would get final say on what the 2021 draft order would be based on. The season, however, was completed and like all of the past drafts, the order will be based on the record from the previous season (regular season – playoff finish does not apply).

The Cincinnati Reds finished at 31-29 in the regular season – their first winning record since the 2013 season. That record had them tied with the Miami Marlins, but in cases where two teams have the same record the “tiebreaker” reverts to the record from the prior season, which goes to the Marlins who went 57-105 and thus get to draft ahead of Cincinnati in 2021. That pushes the Reds to the 17th spot in the draft in both the 1st and 2nd rounds. They will have the 18th pick in each round after that, as the Astros will then join the draft after having their 1st and 2nd round picks taken away from them as punishment for their sign stealing and trash can banging.

Here’s how the draft will line up:

Pick Team W L
1 Pirates 19 41
2 Rangers 22 38
3 Tigers 23 35
4 Red Sox 24 36
5 Orioles 25 35
6 D-Backs 25 35
7 Royals 26 34
8 Rockies 26 34
9 Angels 26 34
10 Mets 26 34
11 Nationals 26 34
12 Mariners 27 33
13 Phillies 28 32
14 Giants 29 31
15 Brewers 29 31
16 Astros* 29 31
17 Marlins 31 29
18 Reds 31 29
19 Cardinals 30 28
20 Blue Jays 32 28
21 Yankees 33 27
22 Cubs 34 26
23 White Sox 35 25
24 Indians 35 25
25 Braves 35 25
26 A’s 36 24
27 Twins 36 24
28 Padres 37 23
29 Rays 40 20
30 Dodgers 43 17
Astros have no 1st/2nd round pick

There will be some picks following the first few rounds due to free agency and competitive balance picks that are yet to be determined. Cincinnati, as a small market club, will get one of those picks in the competitive balance area, unless they sign a free agent who got a qualifying offer and have to give up that selection (all 1st picks are protected).

11 Responses

    • Doug Gray

      I’m selfishly hoping they draft me. I’m willing to take the signing bonus and let the Reds punt a pick, because yeah, I’m selfish.

      Reply
      • RojoBenjy

        You could have filled in for Davidson in the playoffs for half the money!

  1. Tom

    Doug, what kind of enhancements have the Reds put into place for Latin American signings? It seems like the Reds could still be doing better, although I like the write up about Ariel Almonte (#25 international prospect at mlb.com for 2021):

    “Almonte can flat out hit and that’s what makes him so attractive to evaluators.

    The teenager is a bat-first corner outfielder who projects to be a plus hitter with plus power potential if he continues to develop at a normal pace. Almonte has a chance to be a middle-of-the-order slugger who can drive in runs in the big leagues one day.

    At the plate, he generates good backspin and drives the balls to all fields, particularly to left-center. He has a real understanding of the strike zone and an advanced ability to recognize pitches. What’s more, there’s not much swing-and-miss to his game when compared to his peers and drawing walks will be a part of his game, which is not common for prospects his age. On defense, he projects to have a plus arm and has a chance to be an everyday right fielder in the big leagues one day. Like most prospects his age, Almonte is working on improving his reads and routes from both corner outfield positions.

    He shows solid instincts on the bases and has a high baseball IQ, but overall, he projects to be a below average runner as he matures, and his body fills out. There’s room in his long and wiry frame for significant strength gains.

    He trains with a group that includes German Rosario and Elvin Fulgencio in the Dominican Republic. The Reds are the favorite to sign him.”

    Reply
    • RojoBenjy

      Nice!

      The Dodgers could develop him into something special. Man i’m sour on my team right now #youalwayshurttheonesyoulove

      Reply
    • Doug Gray

      I guess I’d need you to be more specific when you say “enhancements”.

      Reply
    • Tom

      I don’t know, whatever it is that the Pads have done to create an incredible pipeline that is fueled greatly by the Latin market. Is it executive level outreach? The right scouts being paid a little more? I guess I’m assuming enhancements would come from the Reds acquiring more talent acquisition talent.

      Reply
      • Doug Gray

        You’ve got to spend the money to get the guys, first and foremost. But it’s not always just about the money, either – you need to have the relationships with the buscones, too. Once you get guys into the organization, though, you need a lot of luck – remember, you are usually agreeing to deals with literal children who are 14 and 15-years-old at the time. You also need to have the ability to develop.

        For a long time the Reds basically didn’t play above the lower-mid tier on the international market. That has held them back, basically, forever. When they have gone into the higher end – it’s been few and far between, and mostly unsuccessful among the teenage group. Here’s the list of non-Cuban 7-figure international signings the Reds have made in the history of the franchise: Juan Duran, Yorman Rodriguez, gap of 7 years, Cristian Olivo, gap of 4 years, Braylin Minier. That’s it. That’s the list. Four players. There have been years where individual teams have signed four players to 7-figure deals on the international market. I think this is the biggest thing – they simply haven’t spent the money to get the top rated players.

      • Tom

        Certainly has been better since Dick Williams had taken the helm. I guess we will see what happens. I love the write ups on the two players they’re favorites for. I really do. I guess I’d like to see the vanity metric of acquiring top 5 or 10 talent – and every year at that. One way to get there, I wonder, might be pulling off a Derek Johnson-like hiring but in the international world. The question being, is there such a guy? Is there a kingpin of sorts? What about hiring the #2 or #3 guy from SD so he can implement the success strategy here. Etc. Etc.

      • Doug Gray

        What exactly has you on this belief that the Padres of all teams have something special happening? They don’t have a single position player among their starting 9 that they signed as an amateur free agent. Their rotation has 27-year-old Dinelson Lamet. Their farm system has a few nice international signees in it, for sure… but they haven’t exactly put those guys into the big leagues and had them produce yet, either. Am I missing someone or something here (certainly possible – it’s been a mind melting year, to say the least)?

      • Tom

        I am thinking of their farm. And Tatis Jr, who admittedly was a trade but one where he was still unproven. I don’t know enough around the league to pick the best team with international players. Pads, Yanks, Rays, Dodgers, Cubs, Astros are some that stand out to me for often being at the top of these lists.

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