The Cincinnati Reds have landed two prospects on the Top 100 Prospect list that came out this morning from Baseball America. You will need a subscription to see the entire list, but if you’ve got one, you can check it out here.
Jose Garcia is the first Reds player on the list. The shortstop comes in at #79 on the list, just behind new San Diego Padres signee Ha-seong Kim. During the 2020 season, Cincinnati got a taste of what’s to come from Garcia on the defensive side of the ball as he showed strong up the middle defense, including a plus arm. But they also got to see a young prospect who wasn’t quite ready to hit big league pitching. Garcia struggled at the plate, getting 67 at-bats but hitting just .194/.206/.194 without any extra-base hits and only one walk. There’s some power for Garcia, but he was just overmatched in his debut and didn’t get a chance to show it.
The only other Reds prospect to make the list came near the end. 2020 1st round pick Austin Hendrick rounded out the Cincinnati players on the list, coming in at the 97th spot. The 12th overall pick in the draft did see some limited action late in the year at Prasco Park at the Reds alternate training site before he wound up in Goodyear with Cincinnati for instructional league. Reports from both were promising. Hendrick, known for his big time power, will turn 20 midseason in 2021. Expect him to wind up in Daytona with the Tortugas – now the Reds Low-A affiliate.
Notably missing from the list among the Reds prospects are guys like Tyler Stephenson, Jonathan India, Hunter Greene, and Nick Lodolo. All of those guys, along with Garcia and Hendrick, are regarded as being close in where they rank. JJ Cooper noted at the time that the Baseball America Reds Top 10 list came out that you could make the case that any of those players could have ranked first in the organization.
Without there being a 2020 Minor League Baseball season it’s made prospect ranking a challenge and a half. With each organization only having about 10-15 prospects at their alternate site, and without those being viewable to the public for the most part (some teams actually had live broadcasts from their sites for fans), it gave no real data/stats to look at to see how players were developing from that standpoint. Look no further than a guy like Tejay Antone this year. While it’s unlikely that many others took the step forward like he did, it’s possible that some guys did take big steps forward along the same lines and we just never saw it happen because it took place at their local training center, or their backyard, or their local high school.
Things will be interesting to look back on in a few years with regards to how prospect rankings coming after the 2020 season turn out. The sheer amount of unknown is likely to make some things look quite strange down the line when it comes to guys that were seemingly “missed” at the time.
Garcia would be a top 50 and possibly a top 25 if the Reds don’t bring him up in 2020.
Greene is under rated and will be a quick riser in 2021. I am hoping he is a top 25 prospect in a year.
Lodolo and Stephenson are borderline top 100 picks 80 – 120.
India is not a top 125 prospect in my opinion.
Hendrick is fine where he is placed.
After years of tanking, and the eligibility of a former No. 2 overall, the No. 6 overall and the No. 7 overall picks, and the improvement of Stephenson, this is pretty telling.
I’ve got some questions about how Hunter Greene was #76 before the 2020 year began, then he came back healthy, we know for a fact he reached 102 MPH again, and he dropped 25+ spots on the list. That just seems weird to me?
No kidding.
I agree Doug. The only thing I can think of his control was lacking at Prascco. But control is always the last thing to come for those with TJ surgery. Again I think if he throws 100 innings he will be a top 25 prospect next year.
How many prospects the Reds have tested away in the last few years are ranked?
if you mean traded I would guess two. Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray. This Dodger trade will bite us in the ass for years to come.
Also trading away Tanner Rainey seems like a huge mistake now.
Crazy how the Padres have been so active in the trade market this off-season but still have 7 players in the top 100. Obviously their management is above and beyond what the Reds front office is! Even without the front office making a couple trades, the reds would only have 4 top 100 players, so obviously player development or scouting needs to make big gain for the Reds to be relevant!
Laughable that we don’t have at least 4. This nonsense of undervaluing our players has been going on for YEARS. Lazy journalism, plain and simple. I don’t even pay attention anymore.
I think Doug’s ranking are pretty good. But if they are then so to are the top 100 lists.
Here is a list of the players who made Doug’s YE top 5 (probably necessary to be a top 100 prospect) since 2010 who have been a regular SP or an every day position player for the Reds: Billy Hamilton, Jesse Winker, Devin Mesoraco, Nick Senzel and Tyler Mahle. You could include Sal Romano but he was so bad he did not belong in the top 100 prospect list. All five of these players were on top 100 lists. Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal were traded for Mat Latos and became regulars but again both were on top 100 lists.
Players who made top 100 lists and Doug’s top 5 but ended up as RP include Stephenson, Chapman and possibly Lorenzen.
Players who made top 100 lists and Doug’s top 5 but did not work out: Cody Reed and possibly Corcino, Yorman and Ervin
Players who made Doug’s top 5 but not top 100 lists that became Major League SP or everyday players: None
Players missed by Doug and top 100 lists: Didi
Players missed by Doug but on top 100 lists: Castillo, Disco
1 player in the last 10 years was missed by all the rating systems. DiDi never made Doug’s top 5. made Doug’s top 5. Castillo is borderline. I know he made Law’s top 100 but don’t think he made anyone else. Doug has three misses. Seems to me the rating agencies are pretty good.
@stock.
Doug had Castillo at #2 in his 2017 midseason update.
Though Stephenson will loose his prospect status this year, we could go from 2 to 5 in the top 100 if all these players have good milb seasons and we draft well.