Fangraphs has released their version of the Cincinnati Reds prospect list for 2022. They were the last of the major publications to do so, which now means we can look at who the outliers were on some guys and Fangraphs certainly has several of the biggest outlier rankings among them.

Unsurprisingly the top of the list is complete with names like Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Elly De La Cruz, and newcomer to the organization Brandon Williamson. But the name that follows them is one that is a bit of a surprise in Allan Cerda. The highest ranking he had elsewhere (among our rankings, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus – who only went to #11, The Athletic, ESPN, or was #15. Fangraphs really likes the power potential from Cerda and likes his potential defense in the corners. They are concerned with his pitch recognition despite his high walk rates throughout his career that could limit his hit-tool.

A few spots further down the list is another one of their outlier rankings. Catcher Daniel Vellojin came in at #8 on the list. He came in at #16 on the list over at The Athletic, but that list was also released in February before the team acquired the likes of Brandon Williamson or Chase Petty or Connor Phillips who were all ranked higher everywhere else (though not here as Petty came in further down the list). Fangraphs likes his hit tool and thinks he can remain behind the plate. Their report, though, has to be the lowest on his defense among all of the others.

The last outlier ranking shows up at #17 with Graham Ashcraft. That was his lowest ranking by a decent margin among the national publications. Fangraphs isn’t convinced that he can start and think his stuff works well as a reliever who could be impactful and project him as such.

There are certainly more than a few rankings and pieces of scouting information within the writeups that left me scratching my head a little bit. But when it comes to scouting minor league players the opinions are going to vary quite a bit at times. All of the information is valuable, but shouldn’t be taken on it’s own. Compare it with information from other sources to see if the information itself is different, or the interpretation of what’s more important to focus on is the difference.

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Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another. You can follow him on twitter @dougdirt24, or follow the site on Facebook. and Youtube.

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15 Responses

  1. Shawn

    I asked Kyle Body on Twitter if I were crazy for liking Vellojin better than Nelson and which were the better defensively. He said he hadn’t seen Nelson enough to comment about him but that Vellojin was terrible in 2020 Fall instructs but very good in 2021. He said “the kids a worker, has the motor you need to be elite” surprising to me, he spent most of the time talking about Wolforth. Said he was one of the organizations best defensive catchers, had an 80 arm and was great with the pitchers. Said he begged to have him behind the plate. Said coordinators and front office didn’t agree with him tho.

  2. kevinz

    Yea Felt they Lower on system.
    Alot to Prove this season.
    Feels like alot can change this season imo.
    Like see more on Prospects who barely have played.

  3. Matt

    Wonder what 40 man move will be made to add that #2 prospect to the Reds’ roster tomorrow. And the corresponding 28 man move.

      • Doug Gray

        I’d bet against that. ON a normal 6-week from surgery timetable to back on the field he should be playing in like 2-ish weeks. With Kyle Farmer as the only guy remotely capable of playing shortstop in the big leagues right now it’s hard to imagine them keeping Barrero off the field through the end of May because they would rather keep an absolute fringe 40-man guy at best.

    • MK

      My guesses on 40-man and active roster moves:

      Mark Kolozsvary would be the most likely one to clear waivers and the fact that he was demoted back to AA instead of back to AAA kind of said a lot.

      I imagine, even though they both had good first appearances Duarte or Diaz might be the 28-man spot.

      • Matt

        After yesterday’s game, I’m going to put my money on Duarte.

  4. RedsGettingBetter

    it really seems to be hard to agree with some scouting info wrote up in the Fangraph ranking. For instance, Jay Allen II is #12 prospect and assigned a 40+ FV with 20/40 hitting tool putting him behind Vellojin, Callihan and Petty. McLain is catalogued as a “high-probability big leaguer regardless, just probably not an impact one unless he develops a 7 or better bat.” The case of Ashcraft could be an understatement. Another surprise is they speak well on Carson Spiers and ranked him #15 as SP even better than Ashcraft. Dauri Moreta is the #45 and last one of the list.

  5. Kindell

    Wow, they really love Allan Cerda. I like Cerda, but I am really excited to see what the guys in Dayton can do in that outfield.

  6. MikeD

    I was looking at Doug’s posts from yesterday with all the videos, and couldn’t be more impressed with his work on this site. Many, many people seem to appreciate his great work as well. I truly hope people are supporting him through Patreon. I have since day one. This is a professionally produced website with second to none material. What makes it even better is all the comments from great Reds fans. Please support Doug.

    • Doug Gray

      Thanks Mike. I’m trying my best. While I do appreciate everyone who shows up here because it does indeed pay some of the bills, the support on Patreon does help so much because it’s not reliant on things that are far outside of my control like what the ad rate will be on a given day or how many people show up (which is not always something I can control – sometimes the SEO Gods work in your favor and sometimes they absolutely do not and that’s a difference in thousands of visits a day sometimes).

  7. kevinz

    Man Siri just hit a Bomb for Astros.
    Wish could of found it here.
    Always loved his tools for sure.

  8. Jonathan

    Would the Reds be in the top third of Farm Systems? Seems like it to me…