Fangraphs has released their version of the Cincinnati Reds prospect list for 2022. They were the last of the major publications to do so, which now means we can look at who the outliers were on some guys and Fangraphs certainly has several of the biggest outlier rankings among them.
Unsurprisingly the top of the list is complete with names like Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Elly De La Cruz, and newcomer to the organization Brandon Williamson. But the name that follows them is one that is a bit of a surprise in Allan Cerda. The highest ranking he had elsewhere (among our rankings, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus – who only went to #11, The Athletic, ESPN, or MLB.com) was #15. Fangraphs really likes the power potential from Cerda and likes his potential defense in the corners. They are concerned with his pitch recognition despite his high walk rates throughout his career that could limit his hit-tool.
A few spots further down the list is another one of their outlier rankings. Catcher Daniel Vellojin came in at #8 on the list. He came in at #16 on the list over at The Athletic, but that list was also released in February before the team acquired the likes of Brandon Williamson or Chase Petty or Connor Phillips who were all ranked higher everywhere else (though not here as Petty came in further down the list). Fangraphs likes his hit tool and thinks he can remain behind the plate. Their report, though, has to be the lowest on his defense among all of the others.
The last outlier ranking shows up at #17 with Graham Ashcraft. That was his lowest ranking by a decent margin among the national publications. Fangraphs isn’t convinced that he can start and think his stuff works well as a reliever who could be impactful and project him as such.
There are certainly more than a few rankings and pieces of scouting information within the writeups that left me scratching my head a little bit. But when it comes to scouting minor league players the opinions are going to vary quite a bit at times. All of the information is valuable, but shouldn’t be taken on it’s own. Compare it with information from other sources to see if the information itself is different, or the interpretation of what’s more important to focus on is the difference.