When I last updated the Cincinnati Reds prospect list, the process began in the final week of June and was published in early July. It’s been six weeks since I started that process, but a whole lot has changed in that time frame. The 2022 Major League Baseball draft took place. And the Reds made a whole bunch of trades to bring in nearly 30 new players to the organization. Toss in that there’s been more and new information on the players that were already in the system and there’s a surprising amount of movement on the rankings front.

1. Elly De La Cruz | SS

The most exciting prospect in all of minor league baseball, Elly De La Cruz is a highlight waiting to happen, and it often does. He’s a 5-tool player in every sense of the word. The switch-hitter is hitting .303/.356/.606 with 20 doubles, 7 triples, 24 home runs, and 34 stolen bases in his time between High-A Dayton and Double-A Chattanooga.

2. Cam Collier | 3B

The Reds 1st round pick less than a month ago, Cam Collier spent what should have been his junior season of high school playing baseball at Chipola Junior College where he hit .333/.419/.537 as a 17-year-old with 25 walks and 33 strikeouts. The combination of tools and production at his age at the top juco program in the country gives him the number two spot on this list.

3. Noelvi Marte | SS

Acquired at the trade deadline from Seattle, Noelvi Marte was generally viewed as the top prospect acquired in all of the deals (though a few felt Edwin Arroyo was). The 20-year-old has spent his season playing in High-A Everett and Dayton and he’s hit .272/.356/.464 with 19 doubles, 17 home runs, and he’s stolen 14 bases this season in 90 games played.

4. Edwin Arroyo | SS

Acquired in the trade with Seattle along with Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo was the Mariners 2nd round pick last summer and he’s come out and hit the cover off of the ball in 2022. Splitting his season at three stops this year, though 87 of his 92 games have come in Modesto in the California League, he’s hit a combined .307/.381/.499 with 20 doubles, 7 triples, 13 home runs, and he’s stolen 25 bases. Toss in that he’s a strong defender at shortstop and you can see why some evaluators had him as the top prospect acquired by the Reds at the trade deadline.

5. Spencer Steer | 2B/3B/SS

Another trade acquisition by the Reds at the deadline, Spencer Steer came over from the Minnesota Twins in the deal for Tyler Mahle. He’s seen time between Double-A and Triple-A, making three stops this season between the two organizations. In 86 games the infielder has hit .271/.363/.522 with 23 doubles, 2 triples, and 20 home runs.

6. Matt McLain | SS/2B

Last year’s 1st round draft pick, Matt McLain has spent his entire season in Double-A with Chattanooga. He has struggled to hit for an average this season, but he’s done everything else well. In his 70 games he’s hitting .231/.349/.465 with 13 doubles, 3 triples, 14 home runs, and 17 stolen bases in 18 attempts.

7. Connor Phillips | RHP

The 21-year-old right-handed starter came over in the spring in a trade with the Mariners. After dominating in High-A Dayton he has had some struggles in Double-A Chattanooga in six starts. Between the two stops he’s posted a 3.87 ERA in 83.2 innings with 51 walks and 115 strikeouts. His control has been an issue at the Double-A level as he’s walked 19 batters for the Lookouts in just 19.2 innings.

8. Sal Stewart | 3B

Cincinnati’s compensation pick in the 1st round (32nd overall) for losing Nick Castellanos in free agency. Stewart may have been the best hitter among all of the high schoolers in the draft. He projects to hit for both average and power in the future, with the lone question being whether or not he will eventually have to move to first base.

9. Brandon Williamson | LHP

Stop me if you have read this before, but here’s another prospect acquired from the Seattle Mariners. Williamson came over in the spring in the trade that sent Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to the Pacific Northwest. The lefty made 14 starts in Double-A Chattanooga before moving up to Triple-A Louisville. He’s taken a bit of a step backwards this season, posting a 4.13 ERA between the two stops. He’s walked 55 batters in 93.2 innings this season after walking just 33 last year in 98.1 innings. The lefty is still missing bats, but his stuff hasn’t been consistent, nor has the control.

10. Jay Allen II | OF

Last year’s 30th overall pick, Jay Allen II has battled inconsistency this season. He’s gotten on base often, and he’s been strong on the bases as he has stolen 28 bases in 68 games, but he’s struggled to hit for average or show much pop this season as he’s posted a .226/.361/.327 line. The 19-year-old has been a good defender in center, and there’s plenty of reason to think his bat will pick up, but there have been struggles in 2022 after a strong start to his career in 2021.

11. Chase Petty | RHP

Petty was acquired in a trade during the spring with Minnesota that sent Sonny Gray to join the Twins. The 26th overall pick in 2021 began the year in Daytona where he threw 65.0 innings before being promoted last week to High-A Dayton. Between the two stops he’s posted a 3.95 ERA in 73.0 innings with 27 walks and 65 strikeouts.

12. Rece Hinds | OF

To say that Rece Hinds had a disastrous start to the year would be an understatement. He hit .138 with 33 strikeouts in 66 plate appearances in April. He turned things around over the next two months, hitting .284/.351/.470 and also showing an improvement in the outfield – a move he made this spring after playing third base for the early parts of his career. Unfortunately in late June he suffered a broken hamate bone and has been on the injured list for the last seven weeks.

13. Ricardo Cabrera | SS

Cincinnati’s top international signing from January, Ricardo Cabrera was the highest rated non-Cuban international signing the organization has had in two decades. The 17-year-old struggled out of the gate, hitting just .120 in 17 games in June. He rebounded in a big way during July, hitting .319/.417/.514 in 85 games while dramatically cutting down his strikeout rate and showing improvements in the field, too.

14. Levi Stoudt | RHP

Another former Seattle Mariners prospect, Levi Stoudt came over at the trade deadline. The right-handed starter has made 19 starts between Double-A Arkansas (18) and Chattanooga (1). He’s been a bit inconsistent, posting a 4.99 ERA in 92.0 innings where he’s allowed 94 hits – 13 of which are homers – while walking 22 and striking out 88.

15. Andrew Abbott | LHP

Last season’s 2nd round pick by the Reds, Andrew Abbott began the year in High-A Dayton. After giving up two runs in five games and striking out 40 batters he was promoted to Double-A Chattanooga. He’s battled some consistency with the Lookouts, posting a 5.46 ERA there in 62.2 innings where he’s walked 29 batters and struck out 78.

16. Victor Acosta | SS

One of the top international prospects in the 2021 class, Victor Acosta signed with the Padres. He was acquired from them at the trade deadline in the deal that sent Brandon Drury out west. The 18-year-old has spent his season out in Arizona at the complex level rookie league for the Padres where he’s hit .243/.346/.360 in 32 games.

17. Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 3B/1B

The Reds acquired Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the trade at the deadline with the Twins that sent Tyler Mahle to Minnesota. He’s crushed the ball this season at his stops between High-A Cedar Rapids, Double-A Wichita, and Double-A Chattanooga. Between those three teams he’s hit .304/.379/.613 with 25 doubles, 4 triples, and 26 home runs. He’s really struggled defensively at third, posting an .880 fielding percentage there in 68 games there as a professional. At first base he’s only made 17 starts, but he’s performed better there.

18. Allan Cerda | OF

One of the better defensive outfielders in the organization, Allan Cerda is a bit of an enigma. He’s got plus power potential, can run, can field, and he’s got a big time arm. He also walks a lot, giving him a strong on-base percentage. But he struggles to make contact, and as a result he’s struggled to hit for average. In 93 games this season between Dayton and Chattanooga he’s hitting .214, but the walks and power give him a .363 on-base percentage and a .473 slugging percentage.

19. Joe Boyle | RHP

Joe Boyle’s stats this season are almost comical in some areas. He’s made 17 starts for High-A Dayton and posted a 2.17 ERA. He’s given up 25 hits in 74.2 innings. No, that’s not a typo. He’s also struck out 122 batters. Boyle has shown improvements in his control and consistency, but he’s still got a long way to go in both areas. The big right-hander has walked 59 batters this season. When he’s on, he’s unhittable and batters have no chance. But when he’s off – well, he’s still pretty unhittable, but batters will find themselves at first base via a base on balls.

20. Carlos Jorge | 2B/SS

One of the top signings on the international side for the Reds in 2021, Carlos Jorge has hit .316/.428/.559 in 80 games over the last two seasons between the Dominican Summer League Reds and the Arizona Complex League Reds. He’s also stolen 47 bases in that span. Jorge’s still early in his career, but he’s showing a good array of both tools and skills on the field.

21. Leonardo Balcazar | SS

Another signing by the Reds in the 2021 international signing class, Leonardo Balcazar has hit well in his parts of two seasons since he began his career. Last year he posted an .882 OPS in the Dominican Summer League in 29 games. This season he’s hitting .319/.418/.504 out in Arizona in the complex league while getting a bulk of the starts at shortstop for the team. He will need to become more consistent defensively as he continues his development as he’s made 10 errors in 27 games.

22. Steven Hajjar | LHP

Another prospect that came over at the trade deadline, Steven Hajjar was the Twins 2nd round pick last summer. He began the year in the Low-A Florida State League, and then he missed just over a month with an injury before returning to the mound in mid-July before being traded at the deadline. Cincinnati sent him to their High-A affiliate in Dayton after his acquisition. He’s thrown 46.2 innings where he’s walked 27 batters and struck out 74 while posting an ERA of 3.08. The stuff is there, but he’s got to find more consistency with throwing strikes as he continues to develop.

23. Christian Roa | RHP

Cincinnati’s 2nd round pick from 2020, Christian Roa has battled consistency and some health in his career. This season he missed the first five weeks but has made 13 starts since returning to the mound. He’s improved his velocity this season, which is good. But he’s also been very inconsistent with his control as he’s walked 37 batters to go along with 65 strikeouts in his 54.1 innings.

24. Alex McGarry | 1B

It’s been a breakout season for Alex McGarry. He began the season in High-A Dayton, but after hitting 11 home runs in 41 games he was promoted to Double-A Chattanooga. He didn’t slow down in the power department at all as he’s added 13 more homers in 45 games with the Lookouts. Between his two stops he’s hitting .270/.319/.557 with 24 home runs, 3 triples, and 18 doubles. He’s also stolen 13 bases

25. Michael Siani | OF

Probably the best defensive outfielder in the organization, Michael Siani can flat out go get the ball in center. He’s got a strong arm to back up the glove, too. In 2022 he’s taken a step forward at the plate as well. Siani has spent all season in Double-A Chattanooga where he’s hitting .249/.355/.383 with 55 walks,, 14 doubles, and 8 home runs – all career bests. He’s also tripled 5 times and he’s stolen 41 bases.

136 Responses

  1. Steven D

    What is going on with the recent draft picks? Are they going to assign them a team this year? Since the draft was later than expected are they taking the w test if the year off since players like Cam Collier have already played two seasons. College ball and cape cod league?

    • mac624

      Everyone that has signed has been locked down in Arizona due to Covid protocols. Once that clears up, they will participate some this year.

      • Doug Gray

        This, pretty much.

        I’d guess we won’t see a few pitchers take the mound because of how the season plays out now, but I think that once the ACL team gets back on the field we’ll start to see some of the draft picks.

  2. Redsvol

    Great list Doug. Thanks for all you do for Reds country and it’s faithful fans!

    • Joe K

      I had asked this earlier but never saw a response. Is there any chance at this point that Tyler Chadwick signs with The Reds?

      • BK

        From Doug’s draft tracker,

        “The signing deadline this year is August 1st, except for college seniors and junior college players drafted in rounds 11-20. They will remain eligible to sign until 1 week prior to the 2023 draft.”

        I think the exception to this is if the JC player transfers to a 4-year school. When I “googled” him, all I saw was a couple of hometown articles reporting that he had been drafted. My guess is he would have signed at this point if he intended to.

    • Landon

      I liked the list. Curious as to why Christian Encarnacion-Strand is as low as he is? Considering he’s got elite offensive stats, I just thought he may be higher.

      • CP

        I agree with this. I’m no expert but was also surprised he was as low as he was. I would think a player showing the hitting ability he has as AA would be what we would hope all these prospects would do. This guy along with Steer seem to be a couple of the closest to the majors top hitting prospects we have. Hoping we can see at least Steer this year at some point in the ML!

  3. AMDG

    I don’t get the low ranking of Siani?

    McGarry is a year older, is limited to 1B on defense, does a poor job of getting on base, has 2x the strikeout rate, and yet is ranked higher.

    And McLain is #6 vs Siani #25, yet they are the same age at the same level, and Siani is striking out less, hitting better, showing a lot more speed, and has much better defense.

    It seems Siani is being under valued because he doesn’t “swing for the fences”?

    • Norwood Nate

      Siani is not hitting better than McLain. Getting on base and doing damage when you hit the ball is part of hitting as well. McLain’s .812 OPS is well above league average. Siani’s .738 OPS is below league average.

      • DaveCT

        The league average comps are always helpful. Thanks, Nate. I recall the use of them in evaluating India and they’ve panned out as accurate.

    • Stock

      Interesting observation and comparison AMDG. I have Siani at 26 and McGarry at 29. Basically they are in about the same place. What will translate better to the majors. A glove first batter who may be a lot like Albert Almora/Billy Hamilton or a swing for the fences type in McGarry who may be a lot like Aquino. I guess you take Almora/Hamilton over Aquino. But not by much.

      The thing that brings Siani down to me is the fact that his BABIP the last 2 years is less than .300. Rarely do you see that in someone so fast who hits the ball on the ground. That makes me feel he does not hit the ball as hard as he should.

      I have McLain at #7. I agree that he has become too much of a swing for the fences type and needs to make some adjustments. If he doesn’t he may find playing time hard to come by in the majors. But I have him in my top 10 because I think he will make those adjustments.

    • Doug Gray

      The scouting reports are pretty different for the three guys in question. McGarry’s got real power. He strikes out a lot, but he’s also a guy who could potentially hit 25 homers in the big leagues. That he’s a 1st baseman/corner outfielder (he’s not limited to just 1st base) is why he’s rated where he is instead of being rated higher.

      McLain vs Siani is two fold. McLain’s got more power both now and in the future, and he’s also got a better hit tool even if he’s not showing it just yet. He’s also in his first full year as a professional, while Siani’s in his 5th. That matters.

      Siani’s never really shown he can hit for an average outside of rookie-ball. I like that he’s improved the strikeouts and walks this year, it’s a good step, but even with that he’s not really hitting for average right now. The defense is great, but he feels a lot more like a 4th/5th outfielder than McLain does.

    • RedBB

      Agree with Siani, his D is right up there with Jose Siri and he has a better arm. His assist rate in the minors is bonkers. 34 assists in some 300 games is insane. He is #15 on my post-trade deadline list.

      • Stock

        On the interesting side, TB traded for Siri last week and he has played every game. He has struck out 12 time in 18 AB but they keep throwing him out there. TB management must really value his defense. Normally, I would say they were crazy. But TB uses innovation to stay competitive (the shift, the opener). Have they figured out that a great defensive CF is more important than another bat?

    • MK

      I hear often ,not just here AMDG, a general disregard of first basemen, and their defensive limitations. Yet, the Reds all time highest paid player is a first baseman who can and could not play another position. Two of the Reds retired numbers 18 and 24 got there as first basemen. So, I wouldn’t disregard McGarry as just a first baseman

  4. Hunt4RedsOct

    I find it encouraging that a player like Siani comes in at #25. In the past the Reds would have a middle relief hopeful in there. There’s easily another 5-10 that arguably could be included.
    As always, thanks Doug for your all your hard work.

  5. Norwood Nate

    Good list. As I was churning things around in my head I had a hard time separating guys after the top 10 or so. I had the same top 7 just in a slightly different order (flip flop Marte and Collier). I didn’t know where to rank Stewart. I had Williamson, Allen, and Petty in that next group.

    Has TJ Friedl exhausted his prospect eligibility? I would have thought he’d have still been ranked considering the season he’s putting up in AAA and his overall skillset.

    On the back end, I personally feel better about Bonnin than Roa.

    • Stock

      Friedl has not exhausted his prospect eligibility. I think the 45 days limit excludes September call ups. If so he is a week or two away. So is Lodolo. I have Lodolo on my list but since he will not be eligible later this week I can see leaving him off the list.

      • Norwood Nate

        Well, if Friedl is still eligible I’m surprised he was left off. He’s currently sporting a 127 wRC+ in AAA (where he’s currently our best hitting prospect at the level) with a very good BB% and a K% under 20%. His ISO is also pretty solid at .207 and 8/10 on SB. He’s making improvements at the highest level and can realistically play all 3 OF spots at a good level.

      • Tom

        Can anyone think Senzel would outplay Friedl at this point? If Senzel went down and hit like Friedl is now it would be amazing. It might be a good idea as he’s looking more like a 3b (body and speed-wise) every day. Maybe he can reappear next year with a few other tools to offer the Reds. 2b/3b/OF.

      • Doug Gray

        September days now count. Friedl’s not eligible – he has exactly 45 days on the roster if I counted correctly. That said, if he were, he probably wouldn’t have made it. He turns 27 next week and he’s still being shuttled back-and-forth.

        Lodolo is also no longer eligible. He has 47 active days on the roster.

  6. Bdh

    System is loaded! Even after graduating (India, Stephenson, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Santillan, Barrero, Friedl, Sanmartin, Moreta, Diaz, and Lopez) in the last season and a half there’s a lot of good prospects not even cracking the top 25! That’s crazy to me!

    Doug I’m guessing both Bonnin and Confidan are missing due to the injuries that have kept them out most of the season? Talent wise they are both top 15 IMO but i understand injuries have taken a bit of the shine off. Also how close were Quintana, Hopkins, and Vellojin? The former 2 are performing very well in AA and Vellojin has been up near the top 10 in some rankings for the reds system.

    • Bdh

      Dang I should also add that I think the 2 teenagers from the Naquin trade are going to shoot up lists eventually! That might’ve been the most lopsided of the trade returns that Krall got at the deadline

      • Stock

        I agree BDH. I think both players have the potential to be top 10-15 prospects. I have Rodriguez and Acuna at #22 and #27 on my prospect list already. Rodriguez making it to A ball as an 18 year old is pretty impressive. Acuna may move ahead of Petty on my prospect list by year end.

        The return for Naquin is at least comparable to that of the return for Drury. Maybe better.

    • Bdh

      And just adding more to this

      In addition to the recent graduates, dougs top 25, and the 7 players I mentioned in my two posts above this one you still have the following players

      Ivan Johnson
      Jose Torres
      Tyler Callihan
      Austin Callahan
      Austin Hendrick
      Javi Rivera
      Malvin Valdez
      Ariel Almonte
      Donovan Antonia
      Johnny Ascanio
      Andrew Moore
      James Free
      Jackson Miller
      Esmith Pineda
      Carlos Sanchez

      + all but the top 2 draft picks the reds signed

    • Stock

      Bonnin surprised me too. If he can stay healthy he will be in the Reds bullpen come 2025. I am starting to think that is a big if though. Next year is important for him because he needs experience.

      Quintana is interesting. He is finally living up to his 2nd round draft status. A bit old but I have him at 40. It will be interesting to see if the Reds protect him this winter.

      Hopkins is even older than Quintana and did not make my top 50.

      With the exception of a couple of weeks in Dayton, Vellojin has not hit much this year and is 33 on my list.

    • Doug Gray

      Bonnin’s injury status has him in a “I want to see what he looks like when he comes back” mode. Confidan simply fell off because others jumped ahead of him. He and Vellojin were in the discussion for the back end of the list and just didn’t make it.

      • MBS

        I like Confidan a lot, but he needs to stay on the field. I know his defense is in question, but he’s very toolsy, so hopefully that comes around.

        If he doesn’t seem to pickup the OF, could he play 1B? He’s got the perfect frame, and being a true lefty helps. You’d also have the benefit of not having a slow, station to station 1B.

  7. RedsGettingBetter

    Interesting to see many players considered as good prospects with really upside staying out of this list such as Confidan, Bonnin, Hendrick, Vellojin, Valdez, so on… meaning the farm system has a big depth in quality right now… I also expect José Acuña and Hector Rodríguez will join this list for the next update… It is really a hard work from Mr. Doug to make a top 25 prospect ranking of the Reds at this point…Cheers…

  8. RobL

    Honest question, why is McClain rated 6th and Cerda 18th? They are the same age, at same level with almost exact numbers. Heck, their K% is exactly the same. The biggest difference is a low babip for Cerda. Yet he still has a 1 point edge in wRC+. I am down on both, so I am not pulling for either. It’s just strange that two guys who are basically performing in exactly the same way at the same age on the same team, have such a difference in rank. Especially considering that the lower ranked player has the louder tools.

    • Tom

      Don’t forget McClain’s been playing SS and generally has been regarded to have a better hit tool. I agree the gap is slightly puzzling, though. I love the top ten order myself, so I’d rather move Cerda up then pull McClain down. That .214 average for Cerda has to come up though.

    • MikeD

      Not every rating can be based solely on statistics. Obviously understanding other aspects of a prospect contributes to there ranking.

    • Doug Gray

      Scouting matters in stuff like this. McLain has a much better hit tool than Cerda does. With Cerda’s history of not hitting for average combined with the hit tool suggesting he’s not likely to ever do it, he profiles as a 4th otufielder type if things do work out for him in the hit-tool department. That’s not the case for McLain, even if right this second he’s hitting similarly. For me it comes down to the fact that McLain is far more likely to be a starter in the big leagues because more people think he will hit enough to do so.

      Same age can both matter and not matter. A 22-year-old in Double-A in his first professional year is not the same as a 22-year-old in Double-A in his 5th professional year.

      • RobL

        Thanks for the reply! I guess to put it another way, the feeling is that McClain’s K% will drop while Cerda will stay the same. That makes sense.

        While I get what you are saying about pro experience, I think there’s some wiggle room. McClain’s history of being a top recruit and the level of competition needed to get there, with 3 years at UCLA is probably closely comparable to the years spent playing in complex ball for Cerda. And the whole language thing without the benefit of millions of dollars in your bank account to make things a little easier. I would say it’s more of a wash and stick to faith in the hit tool on this one. But in general, I get your point.

  9. MBS

    Great list, I am surprised about Collier @2, but if he’s got more upside than the hyped Marte, that’s awesome. 12 of the top 25 with a realistic shot of making the Reds over the next 2 seasons.

    It’s also striking how many 17, 18, and 19 year olds we have, It makes me feel like our window will be much longer than past windows.

    • Tom

      It’s early, but I’m on the Collier hype train as well. He’s got everything to still prove, as he’s not played as a pro yet, but he’s relatively high floor and very high ceiling, so at this point the hype is deserved.

  10. LeRoy

    The Reds have the prospects. Now in the next few years we will see if they have the organization skills to develop them into major league players. Development is where the Reds should put their efforts in money and coaching skills to help these prospects in the best way possible. A good view of that happens may be to wait and see what Barrero does at the major league level. The prospects need to be ready when they are called up.

  11. Tom

    I’ve been bowled over by EDLC, totally amazed. He’s the most exciting player since Hamilton, but has Bruce like power. So fun to watch run the bases, he instantly becomes a Cincinnati favorite the first double he hits.

    I also love Sal Stewart top 10. When I heard he was the best HS bat in the class I was pleased. Just now I’m reminded that Winker was similarly highly regarded. That’s what I think we might have in Sal in 4-5 years, so while I could see him oscillating from 3-20 in the rankings, his upside at the moment warrants #8.

    I’m quite a bit higher on Encarnacion-Strand then almost anywhere I look. To me, he’s got the potential bat of a Todd Frazier in the next 1-2 years and I could see him learning from and taking over for Votto in 2024-25. So, I’d probably have him in the 9-12 range myself.

    Great to have a unanimous #1 in ELDC. He’s on such a tear right now, IDK, you might need to push him to AAA, it’s sort of unprecedented, or at least since Bruce.

    • SultanofSwaff

      I’m with you on Strand. Slide him over to 1B and let him rake.

  12. Tom

    Hendrick off the list makes sense, but he’s not far from a possible rebound back into the top 15 either. I have belief that with patience he can string together quite a turnaround. In fact he’s having a great week: .300/.462/.650/1.112 to go with 6 walks and 5 K’s.

  13. SultanofSwaff

    Great list Doug!

    Winning games at the MLB level would be better, but the talent on this list should lead to that outcome…..maybe sooner than we think. If the front office is aggressive with promotions, you could see the team gel faster than anticipated, much like the 2015 Cubs came out of nowhere.

    Hajjar/Strand/Abbott are too low imo but not by much….I’d slide Hinds and Cabrera down. I feel the guys who have put up numbers at AA or higher should get the benefit of the doubt, especially the glue guys who might not become all-stars but have a high probability of having a years-long career.

  14. Michael P

    Just tremendous depth in the farm right now. In a typical post MLB draft ranking, we would see 4/5 new additions from the draft alone. This time, just two with Collier/Stewart on this list. If these and other new draftees (Logan Tanner, Bryce Hubbard, Justin Boyd, Brutti) play up it will only add to the shuffling of the 2023 pre season rankings. As far as depth goes, is their a better 26-40 in the MLB that includes names like Jose Torres, Bonnin, Confiden, Hendrick, Ivan Johnson, Mat Nelson, Quintana, Hopkins, Vellojin, José Acuña, Lyon Richardson, and Hector Rodríguez. Those are top 25 dudes on many teams.

    Really suprised you ranked Sal Stewart so high. This ranking make me even more excited about his upside! Wow, what a time to be a Minor League prospect fan!

    • Reaganspad

      We are going to like watching Boyd development. He was much further along than McGarry coming to us and he can play CF.

      I do not recall seeing Kevin Abel in these pages for a while. He had a nice string of 3 innings stints going. If he is healthy, he will move as well.

      So fun to have talent in the system

  15. JaxDan

    Just eyeballing the list I see about 12-14 players who can be with the Reds within the next 2 years. 6 position players who can be starters (EDC, Marte, McClain, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, Siani). About 12 players who are 20 and under. And NO catchers.

  16. Jonathan Linn

    The Trick is developing all of this talent. Putting $$$ in player development is a better investment that FA’s. I think that was what DW started before he resigned…..

  17. Bdh

    Rereading dougs list and I do have 1 question. Why is there such a large gap between Cabrera and Balcazar?

    Cabrera has had a really good stretch of late but for the season he is at .239 with an OPS at .741. Balcazar, who is only slightly older than Cabrera, had an OPS of .882 in the DSL and has really took off this year hitting .319 and an OPS of .922 in Arizona.

    The knock you put on Balcazar was that he had 10 errors in 29 games but Cabrera has 18 errors in his 36 games at SS this year.

    • Doug Gray

      Cabrera’s got better tools. Using numbers from the DSL right now isn’t exactly a good barometer. Honestly, it’s never really a good barometer. You want guys to perform well there, but there’s an insanely long list of guys who went on to become big leaguers who didn’t do much of anything there, while there’s an even longer list of guys who performed very well there who never reached A-ball.

  18. Dean

    We should trade a SS or 2 for more pitching, as opposed to having players learn new positions.
    Who on this list is going to be the next Castillo or Mahle?
    Also, I wonder where Barrero would be on this list.
    Simy put, I’m not nearly as excited about the arms on the farm as I am the bats.

    • Bdh

      Phillips, Abbott, Williamson, Petty, Roa, Bonnin, Stoudt, Hajjar and Acuna all have a chance to be very good starting pitchers but you are also forgetting that the reds top 3 starters (Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft) and 2 best relievers (Diaz, Sanmartin) were all on these prospect lists as recent as 3 months ago.

      • Dean

        I haven’t forgotten anything.
        I’m merely commenting on the current arms on the farm. Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft should be solid MLB pitchers. But that remains to be seen. Still, we need 2 more starters and a bunch of decent relievers.

    • Norwood Nate

      At this point the bats are much more intriguing and productive than the pitching. About a year and a half ago we didn’t have as much in the way of bats, and pitching top heavy with guys like Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Santillan, and Gutierrez.

      Fortunately, (hopefully), those top 3 guys who are currently in our rotation continue to grow and get better and realize their potential. I think you can slot all three into the top 3 spots in a good rotation.

      While the Reds don’t have top end pitching prospects, they do have several guys that have a solid chance of slotting into the backend of a rotation or better. Williamson, Phillips, Abbott, Stoudt, Petty, Boyle, and Hajjar all have a mid-rotation to back end of rotation capability (some with even higher upside). Hopefully the Reds just need hit on a few of them to round out the rotation.

      Often with prospects you’re playing the numbers game. That’s why I never sweat how many SS’s we have, as they’ll eventually sort themselves out and most can move around the field.

      • Stock

        I agree Nate that the hitting is very impressive. In fact I think the group in AA right now is the most impressive group in full season ball I have ever seen. Not to be outdone, the group in AZL is even more impressive to me.

        I know I am alone here but I really like Boyle to be at the top of the Reds rotation. The list of pitchers you gave will also hopefully add a 5th SP and give us a fantastic bullpen.

        Add Jose Acuna to your list of pitchers.

      • Will

        This is great work on everyone’s part, and it’s great to see fans interested.

        Seeing more talent is a good thing, however, a big issue happens every fall.

        Who goes or who doesn’t go on the 40 man roster?

      • Michael E

        Lets hope that IF we get enough of the bats performing at MLB level in a few years that’s when the F.O. splurges for an all-star pitcher just entering his prime (either F.A. or a trade or one of each) and we can have a solid rotation with hopefully a carefully pieced together bullpen to go with a lineup that can actually hit the baseball, unlike our lineups of the past 30 years. Hoping we don’t have a single hitter in the NL top 20 of most Ks in 3 or 4 years.

    • Doug Gray

      The chances anyone on the list is “the next Castillo” are slim and none. The chances any of them are the next Mahle are pretty small, too.

      • Dean Rock

        That’s disheartening, as Mahle is really a mid-rotation guy at best.
        Maybe Greene, Lodolo or Ashcraft will develop into top of the rotation guys. If not, we need to trade shortstop for starting pitching.

  19. Stock

    Great list Doug. Your top 22 players made my top 25 (adjusted to exclude Lodolo and Barrero).

    The three players I have on my list that you don’t are

    Bryce Bonnin – 12 – I assume Bonnin did not make your list because he never pitches. I still have him on here because if he can stay on the field he has the stuff to pitch in the bullpen someday.

    Hector Rodriguez – 22 – Impressed me that he was playing A ball as an 18 year old. Also loved the power he was showing in the Florida complex league.

    Carlos Sanchez – 24 – Hard to ignore someone who has been on base every game in his career. Even more impressive is his 18 BB and 3 K in his last 10 games. This goes with an out of this world .636 OBP.

    • Bdh

      Where do you have Confidan? ACL mvp at 18 and was off to a good start in A ball as a 19 year old before the quad injury. Can’t wait for his return to action

      • Stock

        I have Confidan at 35. His BB% is way up this year so I may have him a bit low. His power is way down but that may be partly because he is playing in the FSL. Here are my 26 -40. Only Siani (26), McGarry (29) and Roa (34) made Doug’s top 25. Carlos Sanchez, Hector Rodriguez and Bryce Bonnin made my top 25 but not Doug’s.

        26 Mike Siani
        27 Jose Acuna
        28 Esmith Pineda
        29 Alex McGarry
        30 Ariel Almonte
        31 Donovan Antonia
        32 Ivan Johnson
        33 Daniel Vellojin
        34 Christian Roa
        35 Yerlin Confidan
        36 Logan Tanner
        37 Malvin Valdez
        38 Anthuan Valencia
        39 Braylin Minier
        40 Justin Boyd

      • Stock

        I did not know why Bonnin was done for the year. That does change things. Thanks Doug.

    • AllTheHype

      Your comment on Bonnin further above is “If he can stay healthy he will be in the Reds bullpen come 2025. I am starting to think that is a big if though.”

      So in other words, if things go right, the player can be a bullpen piece in
      25? With the depth in our system, this does not warrant a player being in the top 25, let alone 12th.

      You would have to be super bullish on his health (which really is a big IF imo), in addition to the likelihood of him sticking as a SP (another IF due to health, see Lorenzen), to have him 12th.

      • Stock

        I can see this position. But then you can say the same about Roa and he does not have the ceiling Bonnin does. I weigh ceiling more than most (hence Joe Boyle is my # 6 prospect). Bonnin has a very high ceiling. He has a chance to be the closer. IMO he has the 2nd best arm on the farm right now behind Boyle. I feel Bonnin has a much better chance of being a SP or late inning RP than Roa, Williamson or Petty just to name a few. Hence the ranking.

      • Doug Gray

        The difference is that Bonnin’s got a pretty real shoulder injury, while Roa’s on the mound throwing.

      • AllTheHype

        Relievers in general have volatile results year over year, unless they are elite…..and it is very hard to project an “elite” reliever that is a prospect.

        In general my belief is a pitcher with a relief projection, especially one with a long injury history, is not worthy of a high rating regardless of ceiling.

        “Ceiling” has to have a viable path to be relevant. Bonnin’s path to his ceiling seems very sketchy.

  20. Stock

    The five players I think have the best chance of entering Doug’s top 25 at YE.

    Carlos Sanchez – All he does is get on base.

    Hector Rodriguez – Tore up the FLA complex league. Is AZL next?

    Ariel Almonte – Has all the tools. He just needs to put them to work.

    Ivan Johnson – Has been looking much better the last two weeks. .863 OPS and a 26% K%. Needs to walk a bit more and he is a top 20 prospect.

    Jose Acuna – He has been more impressive than Petty but the high FB% is keeping him just outside my top 25. The Reds may have found two gems in the Naquin trade.

    • Bdh

      Jose Torres too. He’s on a tear right now (hitting .317 with .862 OPS) in his last 10 games. He’s supposed to be a very good defender and If he finishes the year with 15 HR and 30 SB it’ll be hard to keep him off

      • Stock

        Agreed BDH. Also as Tom pointed out Hendrick had a great week last week. A 23% K%, 23% BB% and a 1.16 OPS. He he has figured something out and maintains the K% the rest of the year he becomes a top 10 prospect and possibly a top 5 prospect again.

        I hope both Torres and Hendrick have turned the corner.

      • Doug Gray

        If Hendrick maintains a 23% strikeout rate for the rest of the year he might warrant discussion for getting back in the Top 25. The top 10 or top 5? That’s crazy talk for a guy having a solid strikeout rate in A-ball for 6 weeks.

      • Stock

        If Hendrick has figured something out and if he can maintain a K% in the 20% – 25% over the next several months then I have no doubt his OPS will be north of 1 and he will be in my top 15. His power is a given. If he can consistently put the ball into play he will be a stud. I hope he has worked extensively and is now on the right path.

        The problem is I doubt that he maintains a K% south of 25% the remainder of the year.

      • Doug Gray

        Sure. If it’s July 1st of 2023 and his strikeout rate is 22% he’ll move up quite a bit as long as he hits while doing so. That would show a change in skillset that 6 weeks wouldn’t.

  21. Hoyce

    2024 is the year. I see Boyle, Diaz and anyone being the reds “nasty boys” RP. W santillian, Hoffman and warren and sanmartin being middle RP.
    I think the reds need a catcher a stud SP and an OF to complete a playoff caliber team. Hopefully the reds will address one of those needs in this yrs draft. Maybe get lucky and draft the OF from LSU.

    • Stock

      I like your vision Hoyce. I am hoping Boyle and Phillips join the rotation. Petty (throws 100+) joins Antone and Diaz to form the new Nasty Boys and joining Sanmartin and Santillan in the bullpen are Stoudt, Williamson and Abbott.

  22. Bred

    Of all the guys obtained in the trades only one has FV over 50. Marte at Fangraphs is rated at 60. Do FV change, or do scouts pretty much understand what a player will achieve. I was pretty excited with who came back in the trades until I saw their FV rankings. By their rankings it looks like the Reds got back a lot of AAAA players and utility guys. Am I wrong on this assessment?

    • Doug Gray

      They change, and I’d say right now that Fangraphs info is currently out of date.

    • Stock

      first of all very few players have a ranking greater than 50. If you do you will be a top 50 prospect. Tyler Stephenson had a prospect ranking of 50 (available on Fangraphs). Jonathan India had a FV of 45 in his last Fangraph ranking.

      A players FV tends to move of as he moves up the system because there is more certainty. Arroyo was a 40+ player 2021 YE but should be a 50 FV player come YE. Steer should also have a 50 FV come YE. I am blown away with the Castillo and Naquin trades. I feel we clearly got a good deal with both. I love the Drury trade. We got a high ceiling player for a man the Pad’s get for 3 months. I am intrigued by the Mahle trade. Steer/Strand/Hajjar all make the top 25 but when compared to the haul for Castillo it looks slim. That said I like it more than what the A’s got for Montas.

      • Tom

        I feel like Fangraphs used to be way more generous with the FV and then have made somewhat of an over correction. I think they’ve been burned too many times by handing out 60’s to players who end up AAAA fodder. How many 60’s are there in MLB at the end of the day you know?

      • Doug Gray

        The problem with stuff like “Fangraphs (or BP) did this thing in the past” is that those two places in particular have had handfuls of prospect evaluators over the years and so you can’t really compare their lists/grading/evaluations over longer periods of time because they were being done by a different group of people every few years.

      • VegasRed

        I never thought months was/is all that. I think that Mahle will do very well pitching all his games away from gapb.

  23. edlcstan

    Impact Siani has on defense has me higher on him.
    Look at impact Aquino has on that end.
    He will be a Pitchers best friend.
    Pitching and defense culture needed.
    Help devlp pitchers we have.

  24. RedBB

    Good list thanks Doug although I would disagree with Sal Stewart at #8 and Encarnacion-Strand at #17. Those 2 should be swapped IMO as Stewart is basically Strand in that there is no question he can hit and hit for power but fielding is suspect. The difference is Strand has proven it in the minors for 2 years now and Stewart hasn’t.

    • Doug Gray

      Some scouts have concerns about whether CES will continue to hit as he moves forward. So he and Stewart aren’t quite the same.

      • RedBB

        Fair enough thanks for replying. It definitely seems that most services aren’t ranking him as high as his numbers might suggest.

  25. Stock

    Excellent list. Three major differences from my list and now that I know about the seriousness of Bonnin’s injury you can consider it two.

    I have always been much higher on Boyle than anyone else so knew my #6 ranking of him would be much higher than Doug. I have also been much lower on Roa than others so knew my #34 ranking of Roa would be much lower than others.

  26. Stock

    I am loving the younger players. I have 6 infielders (Collier, Stewart, Acosta, Rodriguez, Balcazar and Jorge) playing in the AZL right now in my top 22.
    The three OF are all in my top 35.

    Add to that the 3 players in the DSL who are in my top 26 and Anthuan Valencia at 36 and you have 13 of the top 36 prospects are 18 and younger and all offensive players.

    Add to this Brutti, Huggins, Alfredo Duno and whomever else the Reds sign in Duno’s class and you have some great prospects in the AZL and DSL.

      • Doug Gray

        You can’t know that. There’s a draft lottery moving forward.

      • Redsvol

        We keep winning series and it could easily be a pickin the teens! There are 7 teams that could easily be leapfrogged in the overall standings. Of course our starting pitching injuries will probably prevent that from happening.

    • DaveCT

      I think the grouping of Jorge/Balcazar/Rodriguez/Acosta is going to be fascinating to watch play out. Four talented middle infielders likely sharing time up the middle and pushing each other in Lo-A. I’m also thinking 2023 sees Collier/Stewart arrive at Lo-A. Given his performance, we also have Minier there, too, who I am still bullish on (that swing).

  27. Greenfield Red

    If Collier is ahead of Marte, how does he fall to 18 in the draft? Seems he should have easily been top 10, probably top 5.

    How good/highly touted is Alfredo Duno expected to be? It is very encouraging that the Reds seem to be becoming real players in the South.

    Since June 1st, the Reds have morphed into exactly what they needed to be in order to have a real shot at a World Series in the next 5 years… and that comes after perhaps the most clueless, aimlees, planless off season and Spring Training I can remember. That came out of nowhere to me.

    • Doug Gray

      A lot of people have openly wondered why he fell as far as he did. Kiley McDaniel asked that very question today when discussing the farm system.

      • Tom

        My outsider observation was it was a combo of reds willingness to meet the bonus demand commensurate with a top ten pick, while the other top ten teams went safer or cheaper to spread their money around.

      • Doug Gray

        I mean I do think a lot of it was the asking price, but some had him rated as top 5 caliber prospect in the draft and he got a bonus less than a top 5 pick, so I dunno why he wouldn’t have gone there. Guess it doesn’t really matter much at this point, but it would be interesting to be in the draft room for say the teams picking in the top 10 to hear the conversation.

    • Stock

      That depends upon how you rate Marte. Fangraphs considers him prospect #7. Collier is behind him if this is the case. BA ranks him in the 40’s. Collier is ahead of him possibly if you rank him here.

      Collier may have been drafted #18 but many felt he was a top 5 prospect but he fell due to signability issues. He was projected to go #1 if he waited for the 2023 draft. One site rated Collier at #29. I am not sure where he belongs but do feel top 50 is accurate. I could see someone feeling Collier is in the 25-40 range and Marte is in the 40-50 range. Last week I had Elly at 1A, Marte at 1B and Collier at 1C.

      After seeing the video this weekend I think Elly is 1, Marte is 2A and Collier is 2B. De La Cruz has adjusted so quickly to AA. I could see him being in Cincinnati at some point in 2023. He adjusts to a new level so quickly and smoothly.

    • Amarillo

      Collier fell due to asking price and age. Slot for his asking price was the 9th overall pick, so no team after pick 10 would be willing unless they had extra cap room like we did for the Castellanos pick. Prior to pick 10 he is risky due to age.

      • Greenfield Red

        It seems to me there are hundreds of baseball players out there who are replaceable. For instance if the Rangers and Brewers, or Mariners, or Twins traded 3rd basemen, would any of these teams be that much better or worse than they are? There are dozens of players available on waivers in the Spring you can plug in where needed and be not much better or worse that year

        Where a team separates itself is with difference makers… players who are way better than the next guys. Difference makers are few. It seems to me, if you have a chance to get one, you should grab it.

        Now, before he has played in a game, Collier is being universally hailed for differnce maker potential… and he signed for way less than Hunter Greene 5 years ago. Seems like short sightedness to me by these other teams.

        Another comparison is Luis Robert. Yes the circumstances were different, but the White Socks were so desparate for a difference maker, they paid over 50 million dollars for him. 10 x what the Reds paid for Collier.

        Yet 17 teams passed on him, and maybe 1 or 2 drafted a potential difference maker. All the others went safer or cheaper when he was available. Does no make sense to me.

      • Amarillo

        Well he was rated 7th at Baseball America, so there are 6 players generally considered better than him. Out of the top 12 draft picks, 9 of them included the other top 10 players, so there is some splitting hairs there on whether teams should have taken either him or the player they did take. The Rangers decided to strategically go after 2 first round talents which is defensible. Then there is the Cubs and Rockies who went for straight reaches. I think we should just be thankful we were in the position we were, and that 2 specific teams made dumb picks.

      • Greenfield Red

        Good insight Amarilo. So rather than 15 or 16 passes on him, it’s basically two teams who missed out. Ok with me

  28. Tom

    When sorting for players under 21 with 20+ hr and 25+ SB, Elly is with the likes of Acuna, Robert, Witt Jr, Benson, and Tatis Jr.

    Elly is headed for 30-30 and only one player has done that by 21 years old since 2006. Luis Robert in 2019.

    • Tom

      Just to add on, Elly has 80 raw power at Fangraphs. That means his potential as a 40-40 player is very real.

  29. wolfcycle

    one thing that concerns me is the fact that we have no catchers on this list which speaks to our scouting dept on catchers. It seems like we draft 3 or 4 catchers every year and never hit on one. I know that is the toughest position in all of baseball, but, dang.

  30. Joe

    I completely agree about McClain vs Siani. I would also like to add we rarely see a guy get to AA so quickly. I do think we are giving up on Hendrick too soon. I think he would be in a much better place if not for Covid. Based on his consistent improvement this year 2023 should be a break out year for him much like Stephenson improved so much in season 3 of pro ball. I personally give guys a pass in years 1 and 2 of pro ball. I’ve seen too many players make significant jumps at the 500-700 pro at bat range. He’s looking good lately and just hit 500.

  31. DKCG

    who would need to be protected for the Rule 5 draft this offseason

    • Doug Gray

      Any player who was signed to a professional contract for the 2018 season, as well as anyone who signed a 2019 contract who was 19 or older when they signed (basically this means college players who were drafted in 2019, though in some cases it could also include high school guys who were old for their senior years).

      I do not currently have a list of everyone who is eligible handy.

    • Stock

      DKCG, here is my list. There may be a few mistakes but am pretty sure it is accurate.

      Elly De La Cruz
      Noelvi Marte
      Spencer Steer
      Brandon Williamson
      Levi Stoudt
      Mike Siani
      Ivan Johnson
      Daniel Vellojin
      Nick Quintana

      Joe Boyle
      Connor Phillips
      Bryce Bonnin
      Rece Hinds
      Jose Acuna
      Alex McGarry
      Christian Roa
      Yerlin Confidan
      Braylin Minier

      Matt McClain
      Andrew Abbott
      Steven Hajjar
      Christian Encarncion-Strand

      Edwin Arroyo
      Jay Allen
      Victor Acosta
      Leonardo Balcazar
      Carlos Jorge
      Hector Rodriguez
      Ariel Almonte
      Donovan Antonia
      Malvin Valdez
      Chase Petty

      Cam Collier
      Sal Stewart
      Ricado Cabrera
      Carlos Sanchez
      Esmith Pineda
      Anthuan Valencia

  32. Optimist

    As I recall, someone made the point that Boyle’s ceiling is HOF, and floor is his current level. He seems to have made good progress, and his stat lines and highlights almost match ELDC in hilarity, BUT, how much progress has he made? I guess I’m asking if he’s really close, getting closer, or just making steady headway? Does he move to the Lookouts next season?

  33. JaxDan

    On ESPN+ Kiley McDaniel has a post trade deadline Farm System rankings for all 30 teams. I do not have a subscription does anyone know of where the Reds rank?

      • Jonathan Linn

        Wow. still that low? I would have thought it would have been a Top 5 system. Any chance you would know historically how some of MLB’s best farm systems produce MLB players?

        Example the Tampa Bay Rays had the best farm system in 2019 per Fangraphs by a wide margin. How many of those players have become MLBs? or is that not really a good measure of a system?

  34. Michael E

    The Reds brass better figure out what coach is needed to harness all the wild pitchers in the system. They can K hitters, but seems like 75% of the prospect pitchers can’t throw strikes, even in A or AA ball. This is not good.

    Something is wrong with their windup and delivery. Something is not consistent or overdone.

    If the Reds F.O. doesn’t pony up for a proven roving coach that can get these kids to listen, we’re gonna be very short on impact pitchers in a couple of years. These low control guys are going to struggle to complete 5 innings on 100 pitches. They might strike out 9, but still give up 5ER every start.

    Come on Krall, get it done, beg or lie to the owners to get the funds to find THE necessary pitching development coach. Scour other systems, find the ones with seemingly no pitchers with serious control issues and rob that system of its top or assistant pitching development coach.

    Braves? Dodgers? Rays? Brewers? I dunno, but find our next coach to straighten these prospects out. Oh, and teach these kids to throw curve balls, the curve ball is nearly extinct in the Reds system.

    • AllTheHype

      I think command and control for pitchers is similar to pitch recognition for hitters. Either you have it or you don’t. Don’t get me wrong, there are instances where command and control issues can be traced to mechanics. Usually this is detected early as a pro. But largely, it is lack of talent in that part of their game.

      Very rarely do you find someone like Boyle who “finds” it. He might improve somewhat over time, but in general most prospects with that deficiency will always struggle finding the zone consistently.

      • SteveO

        Randy Johnson was a prime example of a pitcher that didn’t have it early in his career, but improved drastically as he got older. Don’t know if he “found it” or got better through development, but he turned out to be a hall of famer. Therefore, I disagree that you either have it or you don’t.

      • Doug Gray

        Citing the one example in history doesn’t really disprove the point.

    • Dean

      Change -up is the better off-speedpitch. Mario Soto to Luis Castillo made it a lethal part of their arsenal. Easier on the arm, too

  35. SteveO

    Doug, Abbott was a 2nd round pick(53), not 3rd round.

  36. SteveO

    The Naquin trade might have brought back the best prospects although they are not as highly rated as the ones from the Mariners and Twins. So far, Acuna has thrown 9 innings with an unearned run and 10 Ks and Rodriguez is hitting .500 in Arizona

    • Hanawi

      They probably need to move Rodriguez up to Daytona. Think he’s proven all he’s needed to in rookie ball.

  37. edlcstan

    Hope See Steer with injuries that have hit.
    Love see him Learn from Salano.
    He has the approach, seems Salano really helping Barrero.

  38. Stock

    He decreased his BB% from 9/9 to 7/9. He is more unhittable when he does throw strikes. Randy Johnson was at 7 BB/9 IP at age 22 also.

  39. citizen54

    IMO, Marte should be #1 and ELDC #2. ELDC is an exciting player but his K% is 30%. That’s not going to fly in the majors. Marte should also be ahead of Collier. Collier was a great pick but not sure he should be ahead of Marte who can play a premium position and already has a proven track record in the minors.

    • AllTheHype

      Tatis Jr had a 27.7% K rate in AA, and 27.6% so far in majors. ELDC might need to improve some in his K rate, but he does not need drastic improvement. His other numbers compare very favorably to Tatis Jr in a lot of ways in MiLs…..OBP about the same but ELDC the edge in SLG by 100 points. But then that is comparing Tatis @ AA to EDLC this year, which incls A+ and AA. Plus EDLC a year older in that comparison. So not exactly apple/apples.

      I think he has to be the top prospect. As for 2, 3, and 4, I think you could put Marte, Collier, and Arroyo in a hat and pull names out and no one would have a good gripe about the order that comes out.

      • citizen54

        You can have all the tools in the world but it won’t matter if you can’t hit the ball, the most recent example being Siri who also had a 31.5% k% in AA. I think Marte should be #1 because he has a higher floor and a similar ceiling as compared to De La Cruz. He should almost certainly be higher than Collier, who isn’t even a Top 100 prospect at FG.

        BTW, it’s good to be able to be able to debate who should be #1. The farm is a lot better than it’s been in the recent past.

  40. Dean

    With the Reds destined to lose 90-plus games this season and probably the next 2, I’d like to be optimistic about the farm. However, pitching wins baseball games. I hope we can flip some of these bats for some legit top of the rotation guys.
    We will be fortunate if Greene, Lodolo or Ashcraft stay healthy and just 1 evolves into a legit top 3 rotation arm.