Michael Siani reached the 50 stolen base plateau with two steals for Louisville on Wednesday in the Bats victory while TJ Hopkins remained hot as be picked up a double and scored a run. Graham Ashcraft’s rehab went well in Chattanooga and Joe Boyle followed up with a new Double-A high seven strikeouts in his outing for the Lookouts.
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The Louisville Bats won 5-1. Box Score
- Michael Siani went 1-5 with 2 steals (51) and a run.
- Cristian Santana went 1-4 with 2 RBI.
- TJ Hopkins went 1-4 with a double and a run.
- Leonardo Rivas went 1-2 with 2 walks and a run.
- Michael De Leon went 2-4 with a double, run, and an RBI.
- Michael Papierski went 1-4 with an RBI.
- Isiah Gilliam went 1-2 with an RBI. He was also hit by a pitch.
- Levi Stoudt threw 2.2 hitless innings with a walk and 5 strikeouts.
- Carson Spiers allowed a run in 4.0 innings with 3 strikeouts.
- Daniel Duarte threw a hitless inning with a walk.
- Eddy Demurias threw a shutout inning with a walk.
The Chattanooga Lookouts lost 5-2. Box Score
- Graham Ashcraft allowed 2 runs in 3.0 innings on 4 hits and a walk while striking out 6.
- Elly De La Cruz went 1-4.
- Matt McLain went 1-3 with a walk and a double.
- Quincy McAfee went 1-2 with a double, 2 walks, and a run.
- Daniel Vellojin went 1-3 with an RBI.
- Joe Boyle allowed 2 earned in 5.0 innings with 3 walks and 7 strikeouts.
- Andy Fisher threw a perfect inning with a strikeout.
9/15 Game Preview
| Team | Record | Time (ET) | Probable | Box Score | Listen | Watch |
| Louisville | 55-82 | 8:07pm | Nicolino | Here | Here | Here |
| Chattanooga | 58-74 | 7:15pm | Salazar | Here | Here | Here |
| Dayton | 67-61 | Season | Complete | Here | Here | Here |
| Daytona | 54-75 | Season | Complete | Here | Here | N/A |
| ACL Reds | 32-19 | Season | Complete | Here | N/A | N/A |
| DSL Reds |
24-26 | Season | Complete | Here | N/A | N/A |
Thinking Boyle’s line of 5 innings, 3 runs, 3 bb’s and 7 k’s might be a pretty standard outing for him in the upper minors and, hopefully the ML’s. Somebody with his stuff who can throw that more often than not while bringing up the back end of a rotation would be helpful.
Potentially. His biggest challenge is obviously p/IP. Both Green and Lodolo averaged about 1.5 additional p/IP in MLB over their last year of MiLB.
Boyle is averaging 18.7 p/IP this year, so add 1.5 and he’s over 20, and obviously there are going to be days where his stuff doesn’t show up and he only goes 3 to 4 IP (or less) due to pitch counts or ineffectiveness. He might be able to average somewhere between 4 and 5 IP in MLB. Whether that is good enough to be a 5th starter, who knows. He will def be taxing a bullpen regularly if he does.
Boyle’s stats in AA are interesting. Tougher batting was expected, but the walk rate is sagging after a better trend in Dayton. Is the umpiring that much different as you advance? Or is it a function of better pitch recognition and patience by hitters? Finally, any insight on the deeper analytics – BABIP, hard contact rate, ground ball rate, etc.. – is he meeting a level of competition where he’ll stall, or is it still the command/control issue which may be fixable with more experience and adjustments on his part?
Still need to keep him a rotation starter through at least next year.
Keep him starting until he proves he can’t. It’s helpful for him to push as hard as he can towards starting, then being a power arm in the pen as a fall back.
Not too many guys can succeed as starters with a high walk rate and only two pitches (from what I saw in July). He seems destined to be a reliever to me. I’d get him in the lab this offseason and add-in a slider. His big loopy curve might not play at the highest level and is harder to control than a slider.
Boyle’s stats in AA are down all over from where I sit. Still the 3rd or 4th best SP prospect the Reds have at this time. I would still keep him starting because if he learns to throw strikes he will a star. As for his stats this year they are all down since his move to Chattanooga.
BB%: 20% A+, 21% AA
K%: 41% to 26%
IFFB%: 15% to 11%
Strike%: 58% to 54%
HR/9: .36 to 1.04
LD% (BIP) has gone from 22% in Dayton to 18% in Chattanooga but his LD% (TBF) has gone from 8% in Dayton to 9% in Chattanooga.
This is somewhat disappointing. On the bright side:
BB%: 23% in Daytona to 20% this year.
BB/9: 9.2/9 in Daytona to 7.5/9 this year.
HR/9: .71/9 in Daytona to .54/9 this year.
Strike/Total Pitches: 54% in Daytona to 57% this year.
Similar improvement the next two years make him a ML SP.
Similar improvement the next four years makes him a #1 SP.
Thanks Stock – very interesting. Some of those changes are a lot less than I expected. OTOH, the K% and HR/9 likely explain the hiccup he’s had so far in AA. Keep him starting and keep him there until mid-season next year and let’s see what happens. I expect that will show us the difference in your projections – if it looks like the latter, then on to L’ville, and a Sept. callup.
I’d keep Boyle as a starter next season. The Reds will be able to see if he can make the improvements needed to remain a starter. If he doesn’t he could still be an important piece of the pen in 24.
MLB: Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Dunn, Cessa
AAA: Williamson, Stoudt, Overton, Vet FA, Vet FA
AA: Phillips, Abbott, Boyle, Roa, Bonnin
A+: Aguiar, Hajjar, Petty, Rivera
A: Acuña, Abel
Hopefully a couple of the AA guys can push out the Vet FA’s in AAA by midseason giving us 10 guys we’d want to see at the MLB, and AAA level. By 24 we should know who’s the 4th and 5th in the rotation, and who is better suited for the pen.
AA looks very good, and AAA as well but for the Vet FAs – I fear they’ll be on the Reds. Also hesitant about Cessa in the rotation – he, VladGut and SanMartin would be a very good end of bullpen if Diaz, Antone and ??? else are the stoppers.
Finally, I like Dunn, but until he proves otherwise, he’s really stuck at 50 ip/year. Doubt he gets to 100 at best.
Alas, we’re looking at another cast-off/hopeful project FA signing – looking back the last 2 that over performed were Straily and Simon.
I think it’s a “not if but when” situation on Boyle and the bullpen. 60% of the rotation is set for the next half decade at minimum. Then there’s already Dunn, Overton, Williamson, Stoudt, Abbott, Phillips, and Roa at AA or above competing for those last spots with Boyle. Also with next to nothing tied up in payroll there’s probably a good chance that the reds sign a free agent arm to enter that mix as well. Boyle won’t be the only one of that group to move to the bullpen but in my opinion he’s the most obvious.
When he does get moved I think he’ll be perfect in the role that Antone played last year going multiple innings out of the pen on the majority of his appearances.
Close game where the Starter gives you 5 you bring Boyle in for the 6 + 7 innings, turn it over to one of Sims, Sanmartin, Antone, or Santillan (I think he has a great comeback) for the 8th, and let Diaz close it in the 9th. No Kuhnel’s or Strickland’s in sight
The Reds have GOT to get some of the pitchers you mentioned to the top half of the league. Hopefully they can identify why their bullpen efforts have been so putrid for 5 years. Some accountability may be nearing if they cannot.
The failure of the last rebuild had a lot to do with the failure of Stephenson, Garrett, Romano, Davis, Traveiso, etc to develop into ML starters. And this is likely their failure as well as an organizational failure. ,
Injuries acknowledged above.
I agree with BDH, I think he ends up in bullpen which has been our biggest weakness over the last few years. Bell handles it poorly as well, hopefully he is gone by the time Boyle is up.
No way Boyle gets to the pen with anything approaching his current BB%. Perhaps he’s a J Hoffman type – spot start, long inning blowout filler, but cannot come in for a late inning with 2 or 3 walks possible.
You can’t come in as a starting pitcher doing it, either. He’s gotta lower the walks if he’s ever going to get more than a cup of coffee.
Do not sleep on Fernando Cruz! Poised and throws strikes