Jacob Hurtubise hit his first home run, maybe ever, in Chattanooga’s final game of the season, and Connor Overton threw 5.0 quality innings in his rehab start for Louisville.

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The Louisville Bats lost 3-1. Box Score

Game Notes

The Bats only had two hits and one walk (Siani) on the day. Their lone run was unearned after Siani walked and stole 2nd (his 52nd steal of the year) he scored on a 2-out error.

Connor Overton’s rehab stint seems like it could be nearing an end as he threw 78 pitches and completed five innings. With the Reds needing as many innings as they can get he might be ready to re-join the team shortly.

Louisville will play on Monday, a usual day off. With every other team being completed with their season, the Bats will be the lone team playing in the minors for the Reds over the next 10 days (they are off on Sunday the 25th).

The Chattanooga Lookouts lost 11-4. Box Score

Game Notes

In four seasons at Army, and two summers playing in the Cape Cod League, Jacob Hurtubise never homered. He entered Sunday having played in 164 professional games and never homered. Then he led off the bottom of the 1st inning with a line drive that just cleared the wall in right field.

Since returning from the injured list on July 22nd, Matt McLain walked 34 times with 47 strikeouts in 44 games. He also had 34 hits in that span, posting a .224 average.

Elly De La Cruz did not play on Sunday. Unless he gets promoted to join Triple-A Louisville for their final nine games of the season, his season will end with 28 home runs and 47 steals and his chase for a 30/50 season will fall short.

Sunday was the final game of the year for Chattanooga.

9/19 Game Preview

Team Record Time (ET) Probable Box Score Listen Watch
Louisville 56-85 6:35pm Ashcraft Here Here Here
Chattanooga 61-75 Season Complete Here Here Here
Dayton 67-61 Season Complete Here Here Here
Daytona 54-75 Season Complete Here Here N/A
ACL Reds 32-19 Season Complete Here N/A N/A
DSL Reds
24-26 Season Complete Here N/A N/A

35 Responses

  1. Bdh

    Is Cerda a lock to stay on the 40 man? I’m not really thinking he’ll get taken in the rule 5 when he’s only played a half a season of AA ball and hit under .200 while striking out over 30% of the time there

    • DaveCT

      I think there’s a very good chance he’d be taken given his on base skills (walk rate –84 bb’s), power (24 hr’s), speed, defense and athleticism. It’s only his 4th year and he’s knocking on the door. Some team will let him be a defensive replacement, spot starter, pinch hitter on a high risk/high reward draft pick.

      • Bdh

        Yea you’re probably right

        Here’s who I’d probably go with at this point then

        Catcher – 3

        Stephenson
        Vellojin – added
        3rd catcher – 1 of (Robinson, Garcia, Romine, Kolozsvary, Yang, Free) or sign one.

        Infield – 9

        Votto
        India
        Barrero
        Steer
        Farmer
        Lopez
        Del La Cruz – added
        Marte – added
        Johnson – added

        Outfield – 8

        Fraley
        Friedl
        Senzel
        Aquino/Fairchild – 1 not both
        Cerda
        Free Agent signing
        Siani – added
        Hopkins – added

        Starting pitchers – 9

        Lodolo
        Greene
        Ashcraft
        Dunn
        Cessa
        Overton
        Free agent signing
        Williamson – added
        Stoudt – added

        Relief pitching – 11

        Antone
        Cruz
        Diaz
        Farmer
        Gibaut
        Gutierrez
        Hoffman
        Moreta
        Sanmartin
        Santillan
        Sims

        I do think the reds can pass Quintana, Free, Rivas, and Northcut through without worry but I’m sure I missed someone that will screw this all up.

      • Chi Reds Fan

        Pretty solid list. Two things: 1) Moustakas- certainly he does not seem to fit any 2023 strategy but I just dont see the Reds eating $22MM, I imagine at a minimum he goes on the 40 man and they try to work out something either over winter or at some point next year to get some $$; 2) I think Hinds needs to go on the 40 man. Not sure they need 3 catchers on the roster since no one other than Stephanson seems much better than what is usually available on the waiver wire. Also would think Ivan Johnson might slip through without being on the 40 man.

      • Bdh

        Crap I did forget Moose. It would be between Johnson and Overton (for the reasons Doug laid out on yesterdays review) to make room for him. I think both of those players carry more future value than moose right now so that sucks

        I do believe Hinds has 1 more year before needing to be added though.

      • EyeballsInNooga

        He’s not knocking on the door. He’s nowhere close to MLB-ready. He’s not good enough in CF to play there in the majors yet – he might get there, but there were at least two plays today he didn’t make that a major league CF should.

        And he’s nowhere close at the plate. Someone might take him, yes, but they’d be returning him in May. He has a gigantic hole in his swing, struggles with all off-speed stuff from pitchers from both sides, and has a bad combination of taking too many pitches and coming up empty too often when he swings. He’s not even ready for AAA, let alone the majors.

        I like the dude and his potential, but if it comes down to (for example) him or Siani on the 40, you add Siani every time. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cerda never played single inning in the majors, and that’s not really the type of guy you want burning options in the minors.

      • DaveCT

        Nooga, Cerda has reached AA in his fourth season, and in his third full season — this is what I call knocking on the door. One step away, in other words.

        Of course he has work to. That’s obvious. So does every other prospect in baseball. That’s a non-starter in a discussion like this.

        Where Cerda would have value as a Rule Five draft selection is his ability to draw a walk and hit the ball 400 feet, then play a very good RF and, in other eye test reports from Dayton, a decent CF. The kid is 6’3″, 170 lbs and d has high athleticism. You don’t think a team wouldn’t take a flyer on his upside?

      • Optimist

        As to BDH’s list – I don’t see any reason they keep more than 1 (Stephenson) C? Also doubtful that anyone would claim Cerda, Johnson or Hopkins, for various reasons. Cerda may have the highest ceiling of them, but none seem to be worth a 40-man spot. OTOH, Marte, Hinds, EDLC, and even Siani have higher ceilings, and performance and skills trending in the right direction.

        Unless injury list spots open up in the spring, they really have to just accept reality and DFA Moose – consider it may come down to a spot between him, Moreta and Siani. Unless Krall works wonders with some sort of bad K/lesser prospect swap, what does Moose add to the 2023 roster?

      • MBS

        I think Vellojin and Cerda are safe, I’d prefer to add Free and Quintana. I hope the Reds don’t keep MM on the 40 man. Duarte seems like a guy that needs to be on the 40 man. Overall a nice list.

      • EyeballsInNooga

        @Dave, what I mean by “not close” is that Cerda’s not even ready for AAA, and not particularly close to it. He walks a lot against mediocre AA pitchers who can’t find the zone and hits fastballs. He might be able to play major-league caliber CF in time; right now, he can’t – the jump just isn’t there on balls in front of him, and he has some trouble going back to his arm side. He has good tools and a projectable frame with enough time to make something out of it.

        That’s nice enough, but it doesn’t translate to the majors. Yes, I think he can learn, and you’re right that a 22-year-old in AA is worth something. But he should be a 23-year-old in AA next year, with a shot at a midseason bump to Louisville. He might not hit .150 in AAA if you sent him there now, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he couldn’t hit .100 in the majors right now or next year.

        There are just too many holes offensively. His entire approach right now is to wait for a fastball he can hit. Everything else he takes. Fine in AA where pitchers can’t spot off-speed stuff. In the majors, that’s a recipe for a >50% K rate. And right now, he cannot hit off-speed stuff. At all. Granted, I go to maybe 20% of Chattanooga’s home games and a smattering on the road, but I’m struggling to recall him hitting anything besides a fastball out of the infield, let alone for a hit.

        Don’t get me wrong, I like him as a prospect. He specifically got really hurt by the loss of 2020. I think someone might look purely at his numbers and take him, and maybe that’s worth protecting. But I really can’t see any chance he’d stick on a major league roster even in a backup role next year. If the roster math works as above, I’d keep him, but probably as the last man.

      • MK

        Vellojin played at three levels this season but wasn’t particularly good offensively or defensively at any of them.

      • DaveCT

        EyeballsInNooga, I don’t disagree at all. All of your points are correct. I do believe there is a risk of him being drafted in Rule Cinco. Is it a big risk? No. Will it really hurt us? Nope, not with the talent pushing up behind Cerda.

    • DaveCT

      I’m not as well researched as you re Rule V needs at the moment.

      I’m leaning hard toward keeping Romine, though, one way or the other (ie minor league deal with invitation to camp)).

      Just watching him work with the young starters has been almost a revelation, especially setting hitters up and somehow helping the kids execute the pitches. I believe he could be a very good mentor for Tyler. As for other catchers, among the well regarded minor leaguers, I’m sure one or more among the candidates will emerge just fine. Vellojin, Kolosvary, as prospects, would be my choices as AA and AAA players.

    • Norwood Nate

      Personally, I agree with Dave, and like Cerda and would like to see him kept around, see if he can improve on things at AA next season. Let’s not forget guys like Cerda missed an entire year of early development in 2020 and has likely been pushed faster than he would have been under normal circumstances.
      He’s got a lot of tools, gets on base, hits the ball hard when he makes contact, plays a good OF with speed.
      Personally I see some similarities to Jose Siri who I believe the Reds gave up on too early. (And who’s currently putting up a 1.3 bWAR season).

    • BK

      Another aspect for Cerda is that he’s already on the 40-man roster. If the Reds remove him, he must go through the DFA process and another team can claim him. It’s far easier to pick him up via waiver and option him to the minors than to carry him on the 26-man roster for a full season following the Rule 5 draft.

  2. Randy in Chatt

    Confirmed from his house mom, that was Jacob Hurtubise’s first home run ever, high school on up. Congrats JH!

    • EyeballsInNooga

      Funny to be there on Friday with the one he just missed and be there today as well when he finally got it. Dugout absolutely erupted. Otherwise a rough day for the Lookouts, but that was a great moment.

    • MK

      According to an interview Jacob did in Dayton last year he had never hit one at any level including youth leagues.

  3. Optimist

    I suspect Doug is working sources to confirm EDLC is moving to Louisville for the week – any reason to not do this? Just a week of meeting new teammates/coaches seems worthwhile, in addition to some brief exposure to different opponents. Any word on where he’s going for the winter? No reason to not have his next 6 month plans already on a to-do list – and there will be no excuses if we hear about “visa issues” or delays getting to spring training. Steer is already up, but they need similar winter plans for Hinds, Siani, CES, McLain and a few of the pitchers. All these guys need to be ready the 1st day of spring training.

    • EyeballsInNooga

      FWIW, De La Cruz was still at the park in Chattanooga today and even came out for warmups and was in the dugout, but just didn’t play.

      • Optimist

        Good, to be expected, finish out the season and end with the team, but the Bats have 6 at home starting tomorrow and close their season with 3 in Atlanta the following Mon.-Weds.. So tomorrow drive him up to Louisville and he’ll get 8-9 more games.

      • EyeballsInNooga

        @Optimist: Maybe, but it’d surprise me. I think if they were planning to do that, they would have promoted him with Siani. They have the same situation vis a vis Rule 5 eligibility, so I’m not sure why they’d hold De La Cruz down an extra week only to promote him.

    • MK

      One reason would be someone else would need to be removed from the roster.As far as meeting folks go they all pretty much intermingle in Spring Training and Instructional League.

      • Optimist

        All true, yet also true that there are always new faces coming in. Always treat the highest ceiling guys differently, and in this case an extra week may help. Also plenty of guys available to clear a roster spot. It’s a tough business that way, but they need to churn and keep the urgency up through all levels.

    • Doug Gray

      Writing about it now, but it seems his season is complete. No Triple-A.

  4. MK

    Maybe Nick Northcut gets a week long look in Louisville. He would really be meeting some new folks and they get a look at him.

    • Optimist

      True, but he’s not near the highest ceiling category. Also, still needs to perform in A+/AA levels – seems more like he’s an instructional league project.

  5. Brad

    As far was 40-man protections go for Rule 5 Draft, no need to save spaces for free agent signings. They would come after. I would think picking 5th or 6th the Reds could find a bullpen arm or bench piece. So maybe leave 1 spot open.

  6. Matt

    The comment above got me thinking about next year and what the roster will (could) look like after all the free agents leave / rule 5 protects / non tenders. And, unless the Reds make some moves on some guys, the offense doesn’t really move forward next year. Stephenson back will help, but beyond him, you have to hope for a step forward from Barrero, continued progress from Aquino, or a free agent signing (Aaron Judge would be nice in Cincinnati).

    I’ve got 39 people on my list who that are already in the organization who I think will be on the 40 man come November. That leaves room for 1. Gutierrez to the 60 next Spring will open a spot for a NRI to be selected. Beyond that, it’s a lot of the same folks.