The Cincinnati Reds have a slightly better idea of one of their draft spots in the first round for 2023. As a small market team they are awarded a competitive balance round draft pick each year, but there are two rounds for that and this year the Reds are in Round A, which directly follows the first round. Eight teams are in Round A, and Cincinnati landed in the 7th spot among that group.

Last season the Reds had a Competitive Balance Round B pick, which wound up being the 73rd overall pick, and the team used it to select outfielder Justin Boyd out of Oregon State. The team also had a second 1st round pick last year thanks to a qualifying offer that they extended to Nick Castellanos that he declined. They used that pick, the 32nd overall in the draft, to select high school third baseman Sal Stewart.

This year they’ll have two 1st round picks again, but they still don’t know exactly where those picks will be. With the new collective bargaining agreement that was reached in the spring there is now a draft lottery for the first six picks in the draft that the 18 non-playoff teams are all eligible for. After those six spots are won via the lottery, the remaining 12 teams are given spots 7-18 based on their records in 2022. Cincinnati had the 4th worst record in baseball and thus has the 4th best odds for the #1 pick, but they could wind up anywhere from 1st to 10th in the draft depending on how the lottery plays out (they could wind up 10th if the Nationals, Athletics, Pirates, and Reds all fail to “win” one of the top 6 draft picks in the lottery).

The Reds competitive balance Round A pick is subject to teams luxury tax numbers. If a team goes over the number by $40M then they fall in the draft by 10 spots. That could push the Reds pick that followed the first round depending on if and what team would get there. It’s likely that they will select 37th with that pick, but it could change. Teams no longer lose or gain 1st round picks with regards to the qualifying offer. The 3rd and 5th rounds, though, could see some slight movement as compensation picks are awards after the competitive round B and the 4th round depending on which player is signed among the players who declined qualifying offers this year.

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Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another. You can follow him on twitter @dougdirt24, or follow the site on Facebook. and Youtube.

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19 Responses

  1. Redsvol

    I was following you until that last paragraph Doug. That one made my head spin. But good news on being in round A of the competitive balance pick round. Need all the high picks we can get the next couple years.

    • Doug Gray

      Basically, if the Astros for example, spend $40M beyond the luxury tax threshold, their #30 overall pick would turn into the #40 overall pick and everyone from 31-40 would move up one spot in the draft.

      • Reaganspad

        The Reds? Luxury tax?

        I get the Astros example, but really, the Reds?

      • Reaganspad

        Never mind and please excuse me Doug. I just re-read your post.

        Beg your pardon

      • JaxDan

        I am glad I was not the only one whose head was hurting on that last paragraph.

  2. Bourgeois Zee

    It doesn’t really matter, sadly. Red ownership will find some reason to cry poor, screw over their fans, put an inferior product on the field, and still wallow in tens of millions of baseball welfare.

    The fact that they’re choosing not to spend any money on the team this off-season while raking in $200 – $300M in revenue sharing and other monies is nearly criminal.

    • Greenfield Red

      There is no reason to spend money on 2023. 2024 and beyond, yes, but not 2023.

      It’s nearly crimminal that fans can’t or won’t understand that.

      • Doug Gray

        It should be criminal that teams don’t try to win every year.

      • BK

        I agree, Doug. That’s why I support MLB moving to a model more similar to what the other pro sports leagues use. Unfortunately, MLBPA wants nothing to do with a structure that actually promotes competitive balance, shares revenues, and incentivizes Owners and Players to work together to grow the game. Small market teams compete very well in the other leagues.

      • Luke J

        I’d rather try to win every once in a while than have literally zero chance to win ever. Those are the only 2 options under the current system.

        Trying to win every year is an idealistic pipe dream. Down here on planet earth, I’ll take solid strategy to build a competitive team when it’s possible, while standing against the MLBPA who refuses to allow a system that would actually allow all teams to try and compete every year. But you do you.

      • Tom

        I would’ve been glad to forgo 2022 baseball entirely just to get to a fair sharing system. It’s a tortured approach to winning for 24 teams. Trying to explain it to others who aren’t familiar with baseball you can hear how tortured the process is for Cincinnati. “Ok, so every 4 years, you take your best players and you try to trick another team into sending you their unproven young players, who are cheap and underpaid, to your team. Meanwhile you get rid of old players and add in unproven old players in hopes that a few of them figure it out and remain cheap until their gone in free agency. Yes, everyone knows the season is over before it starts but you actually get a lotto ticket for a number 1 pick the following July and who you pick might help you in 5-6 years”…and on and on. Most people have a lot better things to do with their time.

    • BK

      Per Forbes, Red’s total revenue for the 2021 season (latest available) was $266M, down from their peak in 2019 of $276M. Your numbers are way off.

  3. RedBB

    Doug, how the heck do they determine the order of the picks? Does winning actually get you a higher pick? ie Mariners, Rays and Brewers were all winning teams and got the top 3 picks

    • Tom

      I think it’s an even pick of the draw among the group their in. Could be wrong though.

  4. Old Big Ed

    Well, they got Johnny Bench with the 36th pick one year, so it’s better to have the extra pick than not having it.

  5. RedsGettingBetter

    I see one thing , The Reds will have 3 picks from the top 50 prospects in 2023 draft , isn’t it?