Chase Petty threw all of 5.0 innings after being drafted in the 1st round by the Minnesota Twins in 2021. Those would be the only innings he would throw as a Twin as he was traded to the Cincinnati Reds on March 13th in a deal that sent Sonny Gray to the American League Central.

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Cincinnati sent Chase Petty to Single-A Daytona to begin the 2022 season and he was among the youngest players in the league. He made four appearances in April, throwing between 2.2 and 4.0 innings in each outing as the Reds limited his pitch count. Over that time he allowed just two earned runs (1.32 ERA), walked two batters, and had 12 strikeouts in 13.2 innings. But things went south in the five games Petty pitched in during May as he allowed 12 runs in 16.2 innings (6.48 ERA) while walking six and striking out 19.

Once the calendar flipped to June, Petty got things turned around. He would make nine more appearances with Daytona spanning the next eight weeks and post a 2.17 ERA in 37.1 innings while giving up just two home runs, walking 16 batters, and striking out 32.

The right-hander was promoted to High-A Dayton at the very end of July and struggled in his first two starts, giving up nine runs in 8.0 innings while walking four batters with just five strikeouts. He was able to lock in the rest of the way, giving up just six runs in 22.2 innings (2.38 ERA) while walking just three batters and picking up 28 strikeouts to complete his season.

For all 2022 Season Reviews and Scouting Reports – click here (these will come out during the week throughout the offseason).

Chase Petty Scouting Report

Position: Right-handed pitcher | B/T: R/R

Height: 6′ 1″ | Weight: 190 lbs | Acquired: 1st Round 2021 Draft (Twins), Trade (March 2022)

Born: April 4, 2003

Fastball | He throws a sinker in the 91-95 MPH range, touching 97.

Slider | An above-average pitch that flashes plus that works in the low-to-mid 80’s.

Change Up | Working in the mid-80’s it’s a pitch that got better throughout the season and is an above-average offering.

After hitting 102 MPH with his fastball in high school, Chase Petty didn’t get near triple digits in 2022 as he topped out at 97 MPH and averaged 93.8 MPH during his time with Daytona (where we have access to the Hawkeye data). The pitch was still quite effective as it helped him generate a high rate of ground balls. His 60% ground ball rate was 2nd best in the league among pitchers that threw at least 60.0 innings in the Florida State League (the big league average ground ball rate is just 43%).

When the year began the reports on his change up were that it was raw but showed some potential when he would use it in high school. He didn’t use it much in high school, though, and would need to start using it more as a professional. That is exactly what happened. While he only threw it 13% of the time, it got big results – with a 31% whiff rate. The sample size is small, but the results were very good.

Cincinnati limited Petty’s pitch count all season long. What that did was get him through the entire season without a shut down at all. It also meant that he topped 75 pitches in a game just twice in his 25 appearances and threw just 98.1 innings. Petty won’t turn 20 until the beginning of the 2023 season, so it makes sense that the team was so cautious with his pitch count/innings. But that caution does mean that he’s going to have to go out there and show that his stuff not only can hold up over 90-100 pitches, but that he can also have it hold up for 125+ innings, too.

Video

Interesting Stat on Chase Petty

He held left-handed hitters to a .198/.282/.333 line on the season. Right-handed hitters posted a .250/.323/.398 against him.

20 Responses

  1. DaveCT

    Is it fair to speculate Petty’s in game velocity is a shade lower than advertised because he’s throwing a sinker and/or dialing it back in exchange for something such as more movement, better control, etc.? It seems reasonable to think that as he achieved such an impressive GB rate as well as improved his walk rate.

    Second, even though Petty is a first rounder with good reports, I’m leaning towards viewing him as having a ceiling of a solid number 3 starter rather than number 1/2 ace. The risks of high school right handers are well known, and given our recent history with Robert Stephenson, keeping expectations reasonable may prevent some blown head gaskets among RML followers.

    • Doc

      He was acquired in a trade so anything less than the second coming of Greene/Lodolo will likely blow RML head gaskets aimed at the FO.

    • Jonathan Linn

      @DaveCT – what do you think happened with Robert Stephenson? He went from an on fire SP prospect to now a lower leverage RP player? Homer Baily never became a #1…but he was a very good #2-3 Starter in his prime.

      • DaveCT

        I think what Stephenson himself said about his experience in the Reds’ minor league system, that he was left to figure things out on his own, is a statement that will haunt the hallways of RML for awhile, one.

        Two, he was drafted something like 27th overall in a draft considered fairly deep in pitching, but as a high school right hander he was also full of risk. That second part, IMO, fell by the wayside with very high expectations.

      • Doug Gray

        Stephenson went from a guy who could throw his fastball for strikes to a guy who couldn’t, and that happened after he injured his hamstring.

        I have no way of knowing if it altered his mechanics or what, but he went from a guy who could spot his fastball at times to a guy who could barely even throw it for strikes half of the time and he never got that skill back.

      • Jonathan Linn

        yes. I remember those comments. Still shocked to hear them. That is poor leadership on the Reds part. Hopefully they have revamped their team culture.

  2. Doc

    Why the big discrepancy between high school and professional top velocity? Technology difference, or dialing it back a bit (for better movement, better control?).

    • Doc

      Sorry, wrote this before DaveCT comment appeared. Posed same questions. DaveCT is obviously a great thinker!

    • Doug Gray

      I don’t think it’s technology. These are professional scouts out there with radar guns, not some local yokel with a pocket radar.

      There’s probably some dialing it back.

  3. Matt

    Playing off of comments on the Connor Phillips post, he is set to join a Dayton rotation that should throw a starter out there nightly that will be interesting to follow. Petty, Aguiar, Acuna, Rivera being the young guys, then Tanner Cooper and Steven Hajjar rounding out the 6 man rotation.

  4. Stock

    I think Petty will be special and in the top 100 prospects 12 months from now. It is possible he will be in the top 50. His performance in Dayton looks fairly average other than the fact that he was pitching in A+ ball at the age of 19. An ERA of 4.40 does not scream future star. But if you look at two games you can see something more. His first game for Dayton he must have been nervous or tired or something because he walked 3 batters in 3 innings and struck out only 1 (a K/BB ratio of 0.333). In all other games in Dayton he struck out 32 and walked 4 (a K/BB ratio of 8.000). Throw out this game and he has an ERA of 2.93, a WHIP of 0.89, with a K% of 29.1% and a BB% of 3.6%. This gives him an outstanding 25.5% (K% – BB%). His K%-BB% of 20% if you include his first start was also fantastic.

    These stats include this second start that I refered to above. His second start of note was on August 30 and the day following that start MK commented on here that Petty looked extremely tired. Add to that the fact that his BABIP was .500 in this game, players batted .500 (3-6) on ground balls. Furthermore, his GB% in the game was 50% and he had 6 K’s with 0 BB in the game.

    In short I think his performance in Daytona was really good and anticipate him dominating the league this year until some of the SP in Chattanooga get promoted to Louisville.

  5. Stock

    A year ago the Reds SP prospects looked very good. Doug had Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft in his top 5 with Williamson at #6, Roa at #10, and Bonnin, Petty and Abbott in his top 20. Although Doug did not rank Boyle I had him at #11 and I had Phillips at #16. I did not have Roa in my top 25. I can’t remember but I think Phillips was announced as the PTBNL after Doug had his top 25 in cement. At any rate that leaves us with 10 pitchers in one of our top 20 including 4 of Doug’s top 6. This could be the start of something special.

    Fast forward 12 months. The top 3 graduate. Williamson disappoints and is injured for much of the season and drops in Doug’s Rankings. Roa just stinks and is out of Doug’s top 25. Bonnin suffers a severe injury and drops out of Doug’s top 25. Based upon Doug’s top 6 pitchers you would think the state of the farm on pitching would be bleak since only one of Doug’s top 6 pitching prospects remained in his top 25. But I think it is very strong and quite possibly one year from being as strong as it was 12 months ago.

    Louisville – Williamson and Levi Stoudt.

    I think Stoudt will be in the Reds bullpen before the year is over. I am hoping Williamson reverts to his 2021 form and puts himself in position to win a rotation spot at some point in 2023 or 2024.

    Chattanooga – Connor Phillips, Andrew Abbott, Joe Boyle, Christian Roa, Sam Benschoter, Bryce Bonnin and Thomas Farr

    Phillips, Abbott and Boyle have the potential to land in the top 100 prospects a year from now and join Williamson in a fight for a rotation spot in 2024.

    Dayton – Chase Petty, Jose Acuna, Julian Aguiar, Steven Hajjar, Javi Rivera and Tanner Cooper

    Chase Petty is special and will be a top 100 prospect 12 months from now. He could very well be a top 50 prospect. I am also very intrigued with Steven Hajjar and Jose Acuna. As Matt stated above, we will have an intriguing SP every day in Dayton (health permitting).

    Daytona – Bryce Hubbart, Ben Brutti, Kenya Huggins, Adam Serwinowski, Gabriel Aguilera and Hunter Parks

    None of these pitchers made Doug’s top 25 but that does not mean I am not excited about the group, especially the first three.

    It would not surprise me if the Reds have one of the best set of pitching prospects 12 months from now. They already have one of the best group of hitting prospects.

    • Tom

      Personally I think of this as very different than last year’s class which had 2 elite talents and a surpriser in there. This year it feels more like 2014-2015 or something, or worse. There is nothing that stands out as sure indication of success.

      I’d say every year it’s nice to stack up the rotations and dream on results that “should” come, but they never actually do come in such a robust way as they might cast forward during the offseason.

      That’s the pragmatic view from where I sit. However I will be rooting for as much success as can be had by all the players who are giving it their best effort.

      If any of the top pitchers in this year’s view end up actually holding down a 4th or 5th role on a contender then I think, collectively, it will be a nice little surprise, and with some sense of relief mixed in if it happened to come from Petty, Williamson or Phillips.

      • MBS

        I’d say Williamson and Stoudt feels like when Santillan and Gutierrez came up. Not sure how it’s going to go, but either could become a starter, with the downside of both becoming relievers at some point in 23.

      • Stock

        I would say that is a fair comp MBS. I know the outlook does not look good today. This is the first time since 2010 that either Greene or Stephenson has not been in the top 5. That said several players are nearing where they were (at least I hope).

  6. MK

    I should have known from reading his bio but was a little surprised when I saw him pitch the first time as I expected to see a pitcher with a bigger frame. In fact, I thought he looked little. There is always a concern that the smaller builds break down faster. Though he is a couple inches bigger than Mike, he reminded me a lot of Mike Leake.

    • DaveCT

      That’s pretty interesting given Petty is listed as 3 inches taller and 20 lbs heavier. I wonder if his build is such that he doesn’t really fill out his frame (and uniform)? Doug, do scouts say anything about how much physical projection he has? Hopefully he isn’t from the Matt MCLain school of height and weight.

      • Old Big Ed

        Does size really matter? In pitchers, anyway?

        Pedro Martinez was 5’11”, 170. Greg Maddux was 6′, 170. Billy Wagner was 5’10”. They all held up. Petty is big enough. (Granted, they list Tucker Barnhart as 5’11”, which he might be in Canadian money.)

        As an aside, I get a kick out of listed weights for guys who play multiple years. Joey Votto has been pretty much the same his whole career, but weights listed for most guys seem to be pulled from their 24-year-old Topps card. What about Sammy Sosa, or Tony Gwynn, or Pablo Sandaval? Or Babe Ruth, for that matter? Henry Aaron was a fast, slender kid early in Milwaukee, but had thickened quite a bit by the time he broke the Ruth’s career record.