Christian Encarnacion-Strand had two doubles and a walk for Louisville, Jacob Hurtubise homered again and Connor Phillips struck out 13 in Chattanooga’s win, Edwin Arroyo had two hits and Jose Acuna struck out seven for Dayton, and Yassel Pino homered in Daytona’s victory.

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The Louisville Bats lost 5-3. Box Score

The Chattanooga Lookouts won 12-2. Box Score

The Dayton Dragons lost 5-1. Box Score

The Daytona Tortugas won 9-4. Box Score

5/21 Game Preview

Team Record Time (ET) Probable Box Score Listen Watch
Louisville 21-22 1:05pm Kennedy Here Here Here
Chattanooga 19-18 2:15pm Benschoter Here Here Here
Dayton 17-21 1:05pm Farr Here Here Here
Daytona 16-22 12:00pm Cooper Here Here N/A

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22 Responses

  1. Stock

    A fantastic week for the pre-2023 top 25 pitchers:

    #5 Phillips 5 IP 2 ER 13/1 K/BB Ratio
    #6 Petty 4 IP, 0 ER 6/1 K/BB Ratio
    #8 Abbott 5 IP, 0 ER 8/4 K/BB Ratio
    #10 Boyle 5 IP, 0 ER 3/9 K/BB Ratio
    #19 Acuna 5 IP, 1 ER 7/1 K/BB Ratio
    #24 Aguiar 6 IP, 0 ER 6/1 K/BB Ratio

    Overall a 0.90 ERA

    Add to that two prospects that I did not have in my top 25 in March but are now:

    Lyon Richardson 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 6/1 K/BB Ratio
    Eduardo Salazar 4 IP, 0 ER, 3/1 K/BB Ratio

    37.2 innings overall. 0.956 ERA. 47/19 K/BB Ratio.

    • DaveCT

      Both Acuna and Phillips were quite sharp. I didn’t see Salazar.

      Acuna was at 91-93 through five. That was new for me, seeing him hitting 93 consistently (I hadn’t know him to have more than 90 in the tank). Breaking ball and change seemed fine.

      Phillips’ fastball was popping. He looked like he had very good command of it, and his off speed stuff looked very good. He reminded me of Lyon Richardson in Daytona. Here it is, hit it. Which, haha, one did. Pummeled a HR.

      • DaveCT

        In addition, Phillips K’s the BA #1 prospect in baseball, Jackson Chourio, twice. Walked him once. Chourio went 0-3.

      • Redsvol

        Phillips is really young for his level. Incredible night for him. Others here had him moving to bullpen. I don’t see how/why. He has plenty of time to improve his control to become out next starter and it appears he is doing it.

        Interesting tidbit on chourios @Davect

    • MBS

      I was coming on here to say something about Salazar, but this weeks pitching breakdown by @Stock was distracting.

      Abbott, Williamson, and Salazar seem to be ready to help the Reds over the course of the 23 season.

  2. Redsvol

    Another good night on the farm. CES showing some patience and taking a walk!

    All 4 teams have been playing better. Louisville barely has pitching and they’re still winning.

    I still find it frustrating that starters aren’t pulled after 5 innings – they need to learn how to pitch tired and get thru a lineup a 3rd or 4th time. Pitchers aren’t being prepared to get thru 7 innings.

    Marte and arroyo starting to hit. Teams have scouted Dunn and now he needs to make an adjustment. Nice to see some relief pitchers finally being developed. Doug had a good story on Salazar recently.

  3. Tony Cloninger

    [QUOTE=Tony Cloninger;4547924]The Reds are really bad at identifying their own reliever’s capability. I understand they needed Newman because who knows with Jose. But neither of them are even reliable on defense. Plus I don’t think they expected the prospects to be ready this fast. However Dauri Moreta had to have shown some sort of potential somewhere that someone would have figured out, maybe we should look at trading someone else for a barely average MI.

    Then you look at Moreta numbers last year. 32 hits in 39 innings. 13 BB and 39 K. But 10 homers.

    He’s only given up 2 homers this year. 20.2 innings. Only 8 hits given up.

    Do something about the ballpark to help your pitching.

    Do better at identifying pitchers you trade. You’re not a pipeline of pitching development.

    • Stock

      I agree with you on the Newman/Moreta trade. It was a bad combination of trades. At about the same time the Reds traded Farmer for Legumina. I felt Newman was a downgrade from Farmer and Legumina was a downgrade from Moreta.

      I did not mind the Farmer/Legumina trade. They went with youth. But then when you combine it with the Newman/Farmer trade it made no sense.

      Given how quickly McLain became ML ready it makes the combination of the two trades even worse.

      But I do think the Reds may be on the verge of becoming a pitching factory. Time will tell.

      • MBS

        “But I do think the Reds may be on the verge of becoming a pitching factory. Time will tell.”

        Wouldn’t that be great. I think it was you who said something about the Reds need to go the “Rays way” the other day. I disagree, it’s not a terrible plan, but I think they need to find their own path to success. A “pitching factory” could be a major piece of it. I like a lot of what the Rays do, but I can’t stand 1 thing they don’t do, and that’s spend money.

        So what could our Identity be. If DJ has creating that pitching factory, and we can continue to flip our pitchers like we did with Castillo, Mahle, and Gray, then reload. That will keep our farm teeming with options.

        We have an advantage in Cincinnati that not too many other clubs have, and that GABP. It’s a ballpark that turns doubles hitters into HR hitters. Now I didn’t like the Castellanos contract, but the principal of signing under 30’s doubles hitters to short deals is a sound one. Maybe a 2 year with a mutual option on a 3rd year seems like a solid plan.

        We’ve stumbled upon some of these type of players by chance with Drury, and further back Gennett. If we are looking at a slightly higher caliber FA like we did with Castellanos, we’ll probably replicate that success more often. This means you’re not going to sign the top 10% of FA’s, but the next 20%. The guys who need a boost in their numbers.

        A boost in numbers won’t be enough to get a lot of them, so we’re going to have to break from the Rays and spend real money to entice the best options our way. We’ll have to offer more per year than they’d get on the market, but if they are young enough, they’ll be able to sign another large contract when they leave.

        We could run with the big boys with a middle of the road payroll, $130M – $150M if that Factory is working, and we don’t bog ourselves down with long term deals, just short fat ones.

  4. Tony C.

    At this point in the season 2 yrs ago Graham Ashcraft was barely a 25 prospect and then he took off. I believe Connor Phillips has the type of potential to end up Reds #1 pitching prospect by seasons end. The stuff and the delivery are there, if he can improve his change up he will be lethal.

    • Stock

      I agree with this comment but am confused. Doug had Phillips as the Reds #1 pitching prospect in his pre-2023 rankings. So this is not new. I do think Phillips will be a top 100 prospect in baseball by YE. If he can continue to throw 64% of his pitches for strikes he will be for sure. Last night he was impressive.

      • Tony C.

        Doug is high on him but other outlets aren’t as high. I suppose what I’m saying is I believe he’s a better starting pitching prospect than Abbott but I don’t think a lot of people share that sentiment at the moment.

      • Stock

        I would have included Williamson but he was not in my top 25 at YE. But you are right. Williamson would make 9.

      • Stock

        This post is in the wrong spot. Apologies to BDH.

      • Stock

        Thanks for clarifying Tony C.

        I think it is very close between Phillips, Abbott, Petty and Richardson.

        Fangraphs has Abbott as a 50, Petty and Richardson as 45+ and Phillips at 45. That would make him our 4th best pitching prospect.

        I like Phillips but feel he needs to improve his control and get rid of some of his homeritus.

        My prediction at YE would be:

        1. Petty (age 20)
        2. Abbott (age 24)
        3. Phillips (age 22)
        4. Richardson (age 23)

        Richardson is the wildcard here. If he works his way up to 6 innings an outing he could jump to one or two. All four could be 50 prospects by year end and hence be top 100 prospects. Petty and Phillips could be a 55 or even a 60. I think Abbott has reached his ceiling with a 50 ranking. Again, Richardson is a wildcard.

      • MBS

        @Tony, Preseason I was 1 Petty, 2 Phillips, 3 Abbott. I don’t create top prospect lists, but that how I saw those 3. I like to see other people’s lists, but the only 2 things that is really important to me is 1, can they help the Reds? 2 when can they help the Reds? So I tend to value guys at AA, and AAA way more than the fools gold at A, A+. Don’t get me wrong, the young guys are fun, but I want to see a prospect get it done at AA before I get really excited.

      • MBS

        I should add a clarification to my comments, I know Petty is in Dayton. Preseason I thought he was going to be up to AA pretty quick. Obviously with the late start to the season that hasn’t happened. He’s still the pitcher that I’m most confident will hold down a spot in the Reds rotation for the long term.

  5. Matt

    Continue to like Hurtubise more and more. I’d like to see him bump to Louisville. Especially since they have an opening with Benson called up.

  6. Optimist

    MiLB teams a combined -10 to .500, but finally looking to have at least respectable records. Each within one hot streak of winning. Individual player development most important but winning remains a goal.

  7. Stock

    Tony C got me thinking about how good our top 6 prospects are compared to historical Reds pitching prospects. I currently have Petty and Richardson at #3 and #4 in our pitching prospects. I have Aguiar at #5 and Acuna at #6.

    Using Doug’s historical ranking’s I felt the three best pitching classes were Doug’s Post 2014 rankings, Doug’s Post 2015 rankings and Doug’s Post 2021 rankings.

    Current Class: Abbott, Phillips, Petty, Richardson, Aguiar and Acuna.

    I think Petty’s stock will soar this year and he will be as good of a prospect as any of the #1’s to follow. If Phillips continues to throw strikes like he did last night he will be a top 100 pitcher and possibly a top 50 pitcher. Richardson is a wild card. If the Reds start extending him out to 5 or 6 innings he will be a top 150 prospect but I could see him as a top 100 prospect also. Aguiar and Acuna will be interesting. I am hoping they will make top 200 lists. But if they get promoted to AA and pitch well they could very well work their way into top 150 prospect lists.

    Post 2014 (Stephenson, Lorenzen, Travieso, Romano, Amir Garrett and DeSclafani)

    Stephenson was ranked #23 and Lorenzen #63. 5 of the 6 made the show. Lorenzen and Stephenson looked to be solid rotation pieces at this point in their careers.

    Post 2015. (Stephenson, Travieso, Garrett, Cody Reed, Sal Romano, Keury Mello)

    Stephenson was ranked 32 by BA and Garrett was ranked 73. Travieso wasn’t ranked but obviously Doug felt he was close to top 100. Cody Reed was a year from becoming a top 100 prospect. I never got to excited about Romano and Mella was always borderline.

    Post 2021 – Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Williamson, Roa and Bonnin

    Greene (#35), Lodolo (#36) and Williamson (#83) were all ranked by BA. Doug had Ashcraft ahead of Williamson so he was obviously very good. Never a fan of Roa (did not make my top 25) but huge fan of Bonnin, Petty and at the time Boyle. By far the deepest class from a pitching standpoint, as Abbott also was on the list. Doug and I both had 9 pitchers in our top 25. Doug had Moreta not listed above and I had Connor Phillips who was acquired to late to make Doug’s top 25. This was a sensational class of pitchers and possibly spoiled us into thinking this years class was lacking.

    I think the Post 2021 class is the best of this group. However, I think this class has the potential to at least come close and is a long shot to be even better.

    • DaveCT

      You don’t get the likes of Greene, Ashcroft and Lodolo very often. But I’ve been high on this group as well, even before the 2022 additions via trade. And, while the ceilings may not equal the big three, the quality is there. Aguiar is looking like a tremendous find in the 12th round ($125,000). Rivera has hit a few bumps but he had a very solid 2022 and started well in Dayton. Again, great value as a 20th round pick ($125,000). And do not sleep on Thomas Farr for a second. 5th round; ($297,500). Or Hunter Parks (8th round, $142,500), who has only been pitching a few years. Roa continues to be a guy I have a few more doubts about, but he’s sparkled recently and if he found something in the tail end of the 2022 season, one never knows. Watching him, I still see reliever but that’s a rather large need and makes him a good asset. Even then, that would help salvage something out of the 2020 group.