Now that the draft and trade deadline are behind us, it’s time to update the 2023 Cincinnati Reds Top 25 Prospect List. If you were supporting the site through Patreon then you would have gotten this list a week ago (so you should probably go sign up – link here). There’s been a lot of change since the preseason list, and not just because the Reds have seen a handful of prospects graduate their prospect eligibility.
1. Noelvi Marte | 3B | Previously Ranked: 3
After a strong first half in Chattanooga he was promoted to Triple-A Louisville for the second half of the season. He’s out to a good start there, too. The 21-year-old is hitting .293/.368/.484 with 16 steals in his 74 games played this season. He’s getting closer and there’s a lot of upside in his power/speed combo.
2. Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 1B/3B | Previously Ranked: 7
After killing the ball in spring training, the Reds still sent him back to minor league camp in mid-March. Shortly after he had an injury that kept him off of the field for the next month before he made it to Louisville. For the next three months he crushed it, hitting .331/.405/.637 for the Bats before being called up to the big leagues just over a week ago.
3. Rhett Lowder | RHP | Draft Pick
Cincinnati’s 1st round pick, the club took Lowder 7th overall out of Wake Forest. In his junior season he went 15-0 with a 1.87 ERA in 120.1 innings to go with 24 walks and 143 strikeouts.
4. Connor Phillips | RHP | Previously Ranked: 8
With the Double-A Southern League experimenting with a pre-tacked baseball, most pitchers in the league put up better numbers than they had done previously in their career. That gives pause to how much emphasis to put on stats from the league. Phillips performed well for the most part with Chattanooga, and after a rocky first start with Louisville after his promotion, he’s pitched well in his last five starts for the Bats, too. He’s got two elite pitches, but still needs to find a bit more consistency with his control.
5. Edwin Arroyo | SS | Previously Ranked: 4
The 2023 season has been basically two halves so far for Arroyo. In the first two months of the season he hit .197/.247/.329 with nine walks and 38 strikeouts in 162 plate appearances. Since June began he’s hitting .292/.379/.476 with 24 walks and 44 strikeouts in 214 plate appearances. He’s doing everything better at the plate over the last two months.
6. Cam Collier | 3B | Previously Ranked: 2
It’s been a bit of a tough season for last year’s 1st round pick. He’s among the youngest players in the Florida State League (he’s five days younger than this year’s 2nd round pick Sammy Stafura). He’s hitting .225/.322/.337 with four home runs, 36 walks, and 78 strikeouts in 320 plate appearances. His ground ball rate of 54.7% ranks 66th highest out of 1436 minor leaguers with at least 150 plate appearances this season. He’s hitting .214 and slugging .243 on grounders. When he puts the ball in the air he’s hitting .423 and slugging .756. He has to start hitting the ball in the air more frequently if he’s going to get the most from his hitting and power tools.
7. Ricardo Cabrera | SS | Previously Ranked: 12
A slow start to his professional career where he hit .120/.274/.200 in his first month. He hit .314/.403/.461 in the two months that followed as he finished out the year. This season he’s not only picked up where he left off, but he’s gotten even better. The top international signing from 2022, he’s hit .382/.526/.584 with nearly as many walks as strikeouts this year.
8. Chase Petty | RHP | Previously Ranked: 9
An elbow injury kept Petty out for the first month of the season. Since his return he’s been limited to four innings or less in all of his starts and hasn’t thrown more than 65 pitches in any start, and only topped 57 pitches in two of his 12 starts. He’s dominated when he’s been on the mound, posting a 1.83 ERA with 10 walks and 44 strikeouts in 44.1 innings while also being an elite ground ball rate guy. He could vault up the rankings if and when he starts showing the ability to go deeper in games and compile innings.
9. Carlos Jorge | 2B/CF | Previously Ranked: 18
In each of his first two seasons, Jorge has been among the best hitters in each league he played in. This season he’s hitting .290/.392/.474 for Daytona and he’s also stolen 29 bases in 82 games. He’s second in the league in OPS and fifth in the league in steals. That will work. Over the last week and a half he’s begun to see time in centerfield for the first time in his career, so that could be an interesting development if the club sticks with it.
10. Alfredo Duno | C | International Signing
The last time the rankings were updated, Alfredo Duno had not officially signed with the Reds. That happened back in January and arguably the highest rated international signing the team has ever had, Duno has lived up to the billing at the plate so far. In the first 29 games of his career he’s hitting .337/.481/.574 with as many walks as strikeouts. He has not caught this year, and isn’t expected to until instructional league.
11. Sal Stewart | 3B | Previously Ranked: 10
It feels strange to have Stewart rated lower than he was entering the season despite three players ahead of him graduating. His season has been good overall, but there have simply been some guys jump ahead of him – his value is also up. He was hitting a ton of ground balls – more than Collier was – in the first two months of the season and the results weren’t good as he hit .216/.358/.266. But in June he began to elevate the ball and he’s hit .323/.420/.573 in the 45 games since.
12. Hector Rodriguez | OF | Previously Ranked: 24
The script has been flipped with Rodriguez. When he was acquired last year at the trade deadline the reports were that he was a hit-over-power guy, who made tons of contact but had very little power and wasn’t likely to develop much of it. Well, 83 games into the season he’s slugging .519 in the most pitcher friendly league in the minors. He’s also make far less contact than last year – though his strikeout rate is slightly better than the league average. After a bad leg injury last year he isn’t quite showing the same speed as he did prior to the injury, though he’s still got above-average speed.
13. Leo Balcazar | SS | Previously Ranked: 22
Another guy who got out to a strong start in Daytona after hitting well in the past while in rookie ball. Balcazar was hitting .324/.427/.471 while showing strong defense at shortstop when his season unfortunately came to an end when he tore his ACL on April 30th.
14. Ty Floyd | RHP | Draft Pick
Cincinnati’s competitive balance 1st round pick (38th overall), Floyd went 7-0 for LSU but posted a solid but unspectacular 4.35 ERA in 17 starts and two relief appearances. He struck out 120 batters and had 37 walks in his 91.0 innings pitched. When he’s at his best, he’s dominant – as evidenced by his 17-strikeout performance in the College World Series championship against Florida. But he’s also been inconsistent at times in his college career.
15. Sammy Stafura | SS | Draft Pick
Another early draft pick, Cincinnati selected Stafura in the 2nd round (43rd overall). The high school infielder is one of the better athletes from the draft and has 5-tool potential. His lack of play against higher level competition has him ranked here for now, but he could move up quickly if he shows well as a professional.
16. Julian Aguiar | RHP | Previously Ranked: 20
This is another guy who feels like he should have moved up more because his stock is definitely up from before the season, but some other guys have just jumped up as well. After dominating with Dayton – posting a 1.92 ERA with 77 strikeouts in 70.1 innings – Aguiar is now in Double-A where he’s made three starts and struck out 14 batters in 12.2 innings. His fastball velocity is up a tick and his results are even better than they were in 2022.
17. Lyon Richardson | RHP | Unranked
After having Tommy John surgery, Richardson missed all of 2022. Back on the mound this season, Richardson – like Chase Petty – has been limited in his usage. He’s made 19 starts and has topped the 65 pitch mark twice, and he’s only completed four innings in four games. Richardson posted a 2.15 ERA in 46.0 innings in Double-A with 22 walks and 58 strikeouts and he’s now made one appearance in Triple-A where he threw 3.0 shutout innings with five strikeouts. His stuff is undeniable, with a mid-to-upper 90’s fastball and three quality secondary offerings. His control can be inconsistent, and the big uptick in velocity since his return is not something we’ve seen him carry past the 4th inning yet.
18. Blake Dunn | OF | Unranked
There probably hasn’t been a bigger breakout for the Reds than the one from Dunn. He had played in less than 50 games since being drafted in 2021, but has now found success at two levels and is currently crushing the ball in Double-A. Between stops in Dayton and Chattanooga he’s hitting .325/.429/.508 with 42 stolen bases.
19. Michael Siani | OF | Previously Ranked: 19
Two months ago it looked like Siani was on his way out of the rankings. At the end of May he was hitting .193 with 26 walks and 63 strikeouts in 50 games played. In 43 games since the start of June he’s hitting .294 with 37 walks and just 31 strikeouts, while posting an OPS of .862. He’s turned his season around in a big way in the process, and couple that offensive turnaround with his defense in center and he’s right where he began the year – ranked 19th.
20. TJ Hopkins | OF | Unranked
In a season where many hitters broke out in Triple-A, TJ Hopkins joined the group and did so well he earned a call up to the big leagues earlier in the season. While in Louisville he’s hit .313/.415/.542 in 82 games and he’s showing better pitch selection than ever before. His age works against him (he’s 26), but he’s big league ready right now and has some useful skills.
21. Rece Hinds | OF | Previously Ranked: 15
The 2023 season has been one of extremes for Rece Hinds. On May 24th he was hitting .194 and had seven walks with 66 strikeouts in 154 plate appearances. A mechanical change made around that time started to pay off, though. In the 40 games since that point he’s hit .338/.412/.724 with 16 walks and 51 strikeouts in 170 plate appearances. He’s got enormous power, plus speed, and a plus arm – he’s just got to find a way to be more consistent at the plate.
22. Jay Allen II | OF | Previously Ranked: 13
An injured in the first week of the season led to surgery on his thumb and missing much of the year to this point. Allen II has only played in 22 games with Dayton and he had a 6-game rehab stint in Arizona. He’s struggled at the plate, hitting just .159 for the Dragons with 35 strikeouts in 92 plate appearances.
23. Victor Acosta | SS | Previously Ranked: 16
One of the top international signings two years ago by the Padres, Acosta came over at last year’s trade deadline. He’s struggled to hit this season in Daytona – at least compared to some of his teammates. With a .252/.371/.347 line, he’s been roughly league average. But he’s also hit just one home run this season and hasn’t done much to really stand out. He has good tools, but he’s still figuring out how to turn those into skills on the field with consistency.
24. Esmith Pineda | OF | Unranked
Last season saw Pineda get out to a great start, hitting .367/.456/.592 for the DSL Reds in the first three weeks, but then he suffered an injury and didn’t play again until this year. Moving up to the ACL Reds out in Goodyear he’s continued to hit well. Through 361 games he’s hitting .284/.370/.433 and has plenty of room to add more power down the line.
25. Sheng-En Lin | INF/OF | International Signing
Usually we know which international players will be signing well in advance of them actually signing. That was not the case for Sheng-En Lin. After graduating high school in Taiwan, he had offers coming in from multiple leagues but decided he wanted to play in MLB and wound up signing with Cincinnati for $1.2M. Some teams preferred him as a pitcher, where he throws 99 MPH, but the Reds are going to use him as a position player – with that position yet being known as they plan to play him all over the place. He made his professional debut last night in Arizona.
Editors Note: Joe Boyle was on the list at #22 prior to being traded at the deadline to the Oakland Athletics.
Can you ever remember the Reds system being this talented??
I was more talented in June before the graduations of EDLC, McLain and Abbott. :)
But seriously you are right. This is quite a deep system.
Thank you for this Doug. Surprised to not see Carlos Sanchez make the list. Jose Acuna has to be pretty close too. I would imagine filling out those 20-25 slots is pretty dang difficult. Great stuff Doug!
So over on Patreon I listed the guys who were also in the conversation and both Sanchez and Acuna were among the group of 4-5 guys.
Sanchez originally was my #25 guy (which would now be 24 since Boyle was moved). Then I changed my mind after I started writing his little profile thing. He’s got a 76% ground ball right now. That’s easily the highest ground ball rate I’ve ever seen. There’s no way that’s going to work.
Wow! That is an extremely high ground ball rate! Yeah, that certainly won’t work. Great point! You really dig deep on this stuff and do a great job! ?
Thanks for the update, Doug. Good list.
Any chance you could add Age to each player’s header?
Here’s a hive mind question, and I’ll confess general ignorance as a setup.
I understand the basic analytics (and physics – i.e. speed) of the advantage of hitting the ball in the air vs. grounders. Looking at Doug’s write up of Collier, the numbers on ground balls vs. non-grounders seem dramatic – are those % typical, or unusual?
More importantly, is this something that is both common, and common to fix with coaching/minor adjustments (stance, swing plane, etc.) It seems so, and thus the stats seem fairly encouraging.
Been following Daytona in the online boxes, and haven’t seen any video at all, and considering how pitcher friendly the league is, some of these guys are putting up good offensive numbers – it seems their pitching lacks in comparison.
Stewart is on a bit of a tear, and I wonder if Collier is just a very slight adjustment away from joining him.
So here’s what MLB hitters are hitting on grounders and fly balls this year:
Grounders: .245 w/.269 SLG
Non-grounders (fly balls and line drives): .398 w/ .767 SLG
So yeah – Collier’s numbers on those types are well within the range of what big leaguers hit on those same types of batted balls.
Sal Stewart had a similar thing happening in the first two months of the season. He made an adjustment and ever since he’s absolutely killed the baseball.
Thanks Doug – sounds like very good news, the 1st big adjustment Collier has to make as a professional, and he’s still 18. Unless he really flops out the remainder of this season, sounds like he and Stewart are certain Dragons next season.
Crazy how the reds have transformed their big league and minor league teams over last 4-5 yrs after floundering for so long.
Collier makes me pretty nervous w his performance this yr. I expected so much more outta him. And I think arroyo is vastly overrated. But the reds have big leaguers until about # 18 or so. And some real quality. Impressive.
A guy hitting .300 in double-A with a .900 OPS can’t crack the list? Wow
Yes – he seems to fit right between Siani and Hopkins with age, skills, and performance.
I’ll assume you’re talking about Hurtubise since the only other guy that fits the description is on the list.
And to that I’d say when you will be 26 in December and have 7 career home runs it’s a real tough sell for me to put you on the prospect list.
Fair enough, but like Dunn, he’s got understandable reasons for being an older prospect. Same with Chuckie to some extent – catchers taking longer, but there must be an article or analysis about Reds MiLB hitting instruction in this somewhere – so many guys having breakout, or even simply noticeably improved offensive seasons.
So we’ll overlook the 6 triples and 22 SB’s this season? That’s an all-around game
Not overlooking them. They simply aren’t enough to overcome the lack of usable big league power.
Pretty exciting how deep our system STILL IS. The top 20 are ALL viable ML’ers, if things go right for them.
Doug- I take it chuckie Robinson is still considered a prospect? Or no
He has prospect eligibility left, yes.
Great list Doug. Some observations:
First I want to refer back to the 2022 YE rankings. Doug ranked Brandon Williamson at #11 and Rece Hinds at #15. Williamson started off in AAA and was average at best. More of the same his first month in Cincinnati. But something happened. Maybe DJ had him make an adjustment, maybe working with ML catchers helps. I don’t think Williamson is as good as he has been the last month. However, I don’t think he is as bad as he was last year either. I don’t even think he will stick as a SP with Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Abbott ahead of him and Phillips in AAA. But kudos to Doug for ranking him at YE. Similar to Rece Hinds with the thought that I am not convinced he will ever have a K% in the majors of less than 30%.
All year I have had four members of Daytona pretty much side by side. My final mid-season rankings have Jorge, Hector Rodriguez, Sal Stewart and Leonardo Balcazar 10-14 with only Rhett Lowder between them. You have them 9-13 with only Duno between them.
My top 4 SP are different than Dougs. I have Phillips (4), Petty (5), Richardson (7) and Lowder (12). I am a big fan of Petty and would have him ahead of Phillips prior to Phillips’ promotion and following results in AAA. I think Richardson and Antone should be opener’s next year. They have the stuff to pitch 2 or 3 innings. But by being an opener it reduces strain on the arm of two pitchers who could use a set schedule and limited innings.
My biggest discrepancies are the new signees. I have Lowder (12), Duno (15), Stafura (17), Floyd (21) and Schoenwetter (23). Needless to say I hope Doug’s ranking of Lowder, Duno and Floyd are deemed to be great.
Four in my rankings but not in Doug’s: Acuna (19), Parks (22), Schoenwetter (23), Cade Hunter (25).
Four in Doug’s ranking but not in mine: Siani (26) in mine), Hopkins (32), Jay Allen (33) and Victor Acosta (29).
Both lists are reasonable. I’d have Lowder where Doug has him though. I think his floor is higher than the others. There are bigger question marks about the floors of Phillips, Petty, and Richardson in my view. Phillips, for intance, could be a viable ML starter, or could be another Santillan who was on a similar trajectory with similar arsenal.
I agree with you that Lowder has the higher floor and that if you look at that it is understandable you have Lowder higher.
As many know on here I was big on Boyle. Based on that alone you may have already determined I am big on the ceiling.
Lowder is a bulldog, I have watched him pitch no less than a dozen times this year… nothing rattles him. Very mature, hyper focused.
If there are disappointments in performance in this list, I’d say Jay Allen, Acosta, and to some extent Siani – although I never really considered Siani a ML’er so I am not really that disappointed personally.
That’s not a big list, which is a great thing.
Not adding Collier to that list cuz he’s just simply so age disadvantaged in Daytona. Next year we will expect more from him.
It’s simply amazing how many prospects have overperformed this year, when also considering the ones promoted and no longer on this list.
Agree with you hype. Acosta wasn’t on my YE list so his disappointing summer does not disappoint me much. Allen was though. Neither make my mid-season list.
Agreed, except:
Acosta is only five months older than Collier, so I would give him the same age disadvantaged exemption. A .371 OBP is pretty impressive, too. The power will come as he develops more physically…he is listed at 5’11” 170lbs. I actually like where he is at.
Yes about Acosta – and a few things to watch. Is he a premium SS defender? IIRC he’s just behind Arroyo in that category – if can stick at SS the numbers look good – not so much if he has to move defensively.
Still, small sample sizes for these teenagers, but the BB/K ratio is very good.
As with Collier – if he keeps this up and improves in Dayton, very good news.
He’s nowhere near the defender Arroyo is. May still be a shortstop, but he’s definitely not a plus defender there.
Anybody….what’s up with Yerlin Confidan? Showed promise a couple of years ago but has fallen of the face of the Earth. Has he just not developed, still only 20, battling injuries or what? TIA.
He did miss most of last year with injuries. But I think it’s probably a matter of “more advanced pitchers can exploit his poor pitch recognition and or strikezone judgment” and he hasn’t been able to hit.
Thanks Doug. Noticed he’s playing very little and is producing virtually nothing when he does play. Maybe the light comes on but at some point, would have to think he’s on thin ice.
He’s the kind of player who gets hurt by the lack of rookie levels beyond the complex league. Between the lack of playing time because he’s in a deep farm system – particularly at the level he’s at – and the need to probably see slightly worse pitching in order to improve his weakness…. it’s just an unfortunate mix for him.
This, no more rookie leagues and the follow on effects, is an excellent point. I suppose the counter argument is that’s what the complex, ASL and DSL are for, but when you remove an entire level(s) of talent and competition this is the unavoidable result. Not just those directly removed from affiliated pro ball, but the complete organization loss – coaching, development, simple additional experience.
Bad law (the exemption), bad business decision by MLB, MLPBA needs to protect the lower levels, and years of Doug summarizing the basic needs of MiLB players (hint – MiLPBA). A total package of ineptitude and greed.
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Noticed SD DFAed Brent Honeywell…might take a minor league flyer on him.
Which prospect not on this list is the most likely to help the 24/25 Reds the most?
Now that Hopkins, and Dunn have joined this list it makes it a more difficult question. I’m going with Free, 1B/C, and I’m guessing could probably learn 3B to become a more useful utility player.
BTW that’s an exciting list @Doug, CES is already on the Reds, but you still have 8 other AA or higher guys on it who are on the precipice of being able to help the Reds, and a slew of A+ prospects. The seem to be in a very good position to go on a long run.
Unranked guy most likely to help? Tough question. Free could be a guy. McGarry could be. Perhaps you’re looking at a reliever like Zach Maxwell who has big stuff but needs to improve the control.
Thanks for your work here, it is always quite thought provoking. One thing to remember is that a prospect list is not necessarily a baseball player list. Having great physical skills make you a great prospect and has an advantage in becoming a quality baseball player. But there are guys who have become outstanding baseball players who never appeared on anybody’s prospect list.
Doug – you need a podcast to talk about this stuff. Or maybe get on one like the Locked on guys or Jim Day’s podcast. I think you would get good reviews and following. There is also “the Riverfront” which it seems like you have been on before. We need to get you more expose for all the good work you do covering all things Reds.
The problem with doing a podcast is that I don’t have time and or the timing is not right. Most nights I have to cover the Reds game for Redleg Nation, and every night I have to cover all of the minor league games. That makes it nearly impossible for me to record a podcast at night, which is when just about everyone records their podcasts, which makes it tough for me to be a guest. And as for doing one on my own – I just don’t know that I’ve got the time, or will, to start another one.
Very good job by Doug. This list is loaded on really talented players. It’s impressive how good the Reds farm system is despite graduated EDLC, McLain, Abbott, Williamson and soon CES, even though there are many intriguing guys out of this list. I wonder how could be evaluated Cole Shoenwetter as he was drafted and signed quite over pick value so I guess the Reds think his upside is very high. I think it should be very hard to keep José Acuña out of this group…
You can include Steer on the list of graduations this year.
You’re right…How could i missed him?
IMO, Richardson undervalued here. Richardson has the tools/repertoire to warrant ranking close to the top of this pitching class. Way more potential than Phillips, who need’s at least one more offering to justify a starter’s role going forward.
They have almost identical IP in MiLB, but Phillips is 1 1/2 years younger and a level ahead. Yes, no time missed to TJ and recovery, yet a much clearer progression and improvement. This time next season both are likely to have made their MLB debut, but Richardson may need more starts at AAA unless he converts to the bullpen.
He absolutely does not have way more potential than Phillips.
Richardson’s upside is high. But his unknown is also high. He’s barely throwing 4 innings per start right now and he’s never shown anything like the stuff he’s showing right now in the past, so we have no idea how he can handle throwing this kind of stuff in the 5th or 6th innings. Or if it’s still there after he throws 100 innings in a season.
We know that Connor Phillips stuff holds up for 90-100 pitches. We know that it holds up past 100 innings.
Phillips needs to work on his change up. Richardson needs to show his stuff holds up as more than 3-4 inning pitcher.
Who did you think has a good chance cracking the 25 from the ACL
Are they gonna let Lin try being a 2 way player?
I’ve heard conflicting reports. With that said, from what has been said directly to me, no – it does not seem that they are going to go down the pitcher route right now.
That said, I did see something from a reliable source that said they might. I’ll lean on what I’ve been told at this point.
While it is absolutely no surprise, one very conspicuous absence is Austin Hendricks.
He hasn’t been on any of my lists for like 3 years.
Case in point, right? It’s still stunning to me. Probably shouldn’t be but it is.
Doug – Have you heard when Lowder will be assigned to a team?
I’d been running who would be on and who would be where on the updated top prospect list in my mind on my walks with my dog recently. I had a top 10 in order and then general ranges set for top 15, top 20 etc. I did not have CES on my list since he’s with the Reds now and likely to exhaust eligibility before the season ends. I also had not solidified my 20-25 guys completely.
With that said, minus CES, I had the same guys in the top 10 (11) just in different order. And mostly the same in the top 20 (21) with the exception of two guys. I had Acosta and Acuna in my top 20 (both in the 15-20 range), with Hopkins in the 20-25 range and Siani being considered in the 20-25 range.
So overall, glad to see my thinking was pretty close as far as ranges go. Nice to see the system is still doing well considering the promotions.
Doug, it will be interesting at this point who moves along faster, Stewert or Collier. What are your thoughts on this? Who is the better defender, I know Cam has the better arm. but who is better overall on the dirt?
I’d have Stewart about 4-5 spots higher than you have him. Arroyo probably down a few spots. Probably Lowder at #2 for me. Duno up a few spots, probably ahead of Cabrera. Other than that, looks pretty good