The Cincinnati Reds made several promotions on Tuesday afternoon, but the biggest and most notable one was that Chase Petty was getting moved up to Double-A Chattanooga. Arguably the top pitching prospect in the organization (he’s currently third on my midseason update), Petty will be joining the Lookouts rotation this week.
The final start for Chase Petty in Dayton came over the weekend. On Saturday night he was charged with an unearned run in 4.0 innings on four hits while walking no one and striking out seven batters. That was his 16th start with the Dragons after missing the first month of the season. The outing lowered his ERA to 1.95.
There were plenty of good things to go along with that 1.95 ERA for Petty. The 20-year-old did not allow a single home run. A big part of that is that he’s been the best ground ball pitcher in the Midwest League this season. Setting the limit at 60 innings pitched in the league this year, Petty’s 58.5% ground ball rate is at the top of the list.
Things don’t stop there. Petty also walked just 14 of the 243 batters that he faced while on the mound for Dayton.That was the 9th best walk rate in the league. His 61 strikeouts gave him a strikeout rate of 25.1%, which ranked 16th best in the league. The 19.3% difference between his strikeout rate and walk rate was 2nd best in the league.
There’s really only one thing working against Chase Petty this year and it’s outside of his control. He’s been limited in his usage each time out. After suffering an elbow injury in the spring, Cincinnati has limited him to no more than four innings in any given start this season. 12 of the 16 starts he’s made this year went exactly four innings. He’s yet to top 67 pitches in a start and he’s only topped 57 pitches in four starts. When he’s been on the mound he’s been dominant, but he’s been limited in his exposure to other teams, too.
While Dayton is in a playoff chase with 11 games remaining in the year, Chattanooga is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs as the first half division winner. Their season is also a week longer. That could potentially give Petty a few additional starts this season in the scenario where the Dragons can’t qualify for the playoffs in the next two weeks.
Doug, My thoughts exactly on why they promoted him. If the Lookouts season is a week longer, that might give him three more starts – plus a playoff appearance. That might get him to a total of 75 innings – unless the Lookouts make a deep playoff run – which might give him over 80 innings. That would set up up to go around 100 innings next year, and about 125-130 in 2025 – which could put him on the Reds
I’m excited for Petty to see some tougher competition. I wish it happened a couple of months ago, but he is only 20. He’s got the kind of stuff where I could see him pull an Abbott, and rocket through AA, AAA, and up to the Reds next year. Hopefully there won’t be the pressing need like there was this year.
Petty>Phillips
Petty is in the conversation with Greene and Abbott as the best pitcher in the organization.
Lodolo and Ashcraft are not far behind.
The third tier of Williamson, Phillips, Richardson and Lowder is pretty good too. Aguiar may be in this group too.
10 SP who could be ready in 2024 and will for sure by 2025. Very deep.
Yep, 25 will be an interesting year in regards to the rotation. Some nice arms are probably going to be moved to the pen.
Greene was OVERRATED and is proving his talent. He needs a retired Hard thrower to counsel him, so he will be a true STAR.
To think, a year ago, we had ‘no pitching’ after the trio of G, L, and A.
I have been on my soapbox about the depth that came up from Daytona after 2022 that, while not as heralded as The Three,’ were pretty nice depth pieces, not to mention bullpen candidates once they fall out of the high end starting competition. Some could become trade chips as well.
Acuna has certainly risen in my estimation as he has more velocity than anticipated, and he really is not far behind Aguiar. In fact, they’re very similar IMO. Spiers seems like he’s moving from sleeper to prospect right before our eyes.
Benschuter rose quickly, has struggled, but has had some flashes lately. I still believe in Stoudt, given everything I’ve read about how much development scouts felt he’d require.
I’m very curious about Floyd, too. He was a 1-S draftee in a very, very deep draft. Abbott was a 2nd round pick for comparison.
Moral of the story, there may very well be a Tyler Mahle or three in this group. And, yes, Mahle was throwing perfect games in the minors. And, yes, Mahle was also doing it with a fastball only. Point is, guys selected on projection that come along as best envisioned are fun to follow and great when it breaks right.
Decaff tomorrow.
I am intrigued by Cardona. He misses bats at an elite rate. Can he draw down his BB rate to an acceptable level going forward?
He’s had a nice run. He’s a curve ball guy, so I’d guess that’s where his swing and miss is. Compared to Benschoter (another curve guy) I don’t think he’s got the latter’s velocity. Two Lo-A seasons with his walk rate and high WHIP, I’d guess he’s headed for the bullpen. He’s 23, so that might accelerate things.
Yeah in BP his stuff may play up even more, esp his velo. Phillips is headed to the BP too, I’m afraid.
I think both Phillips and Stoudt will be given every chance to remain starters. If that’s not in the cards, two guys who can bring it at 98 will be welcome in the pen.
Best “potential” in the organization maybe, but no way Greene is currently one of the best pitchers in the organization. Even after last night’s good performance his ERA is bumping 5. And that’s not a whole lot better than last year. He doesn’t go deeper into games than last year to any significant degree. Ashcraft, Abbott and Williamson are clearly better at this point in time, and if one subtracts the Lively “take one for the team” outing, he has been better than Greene. Remember Lively’s ERA had dipped below 4 before his one disaster.
Mancini released, that didn’t take long.
Did someone say he had an out clause? Otherwise, I’d say the Angels might have changed the equation
Hey Doug and the rest of the wise readers, what does Petty do that creates his successful stats but most of the Reds major and minor leaguers don’t do and leads to many balls and walks? Maybe the Dragons pitching coach can advise the rest of the farm teams pitching coaches. Is it Petty’s mental self -confidence or strength that when he needs to get ahead of hitters he throws more fpk’s first pitch strikes? Then he attacks the batters zone having the confidence to throw more strikes since he has such a short leash of 65 pitches per outing. Maybe the major and minor league pitchers that throw the least amount to strikes per pitches thrown need to be also on such a short leash. Maybe just one pitcher per team. Or else that teams bullpen would get too many IP’s and get tired.
There is NO defense against a walk!
Better than just throwing that struggling pitcher back out there to keep doing
nibble-itis (nibbling the corners and getting more balls called). THAT is just negative learning and destroys a pitchers confidence which they might never get back. As bad as throwing your arm out!
Not Doug, but Petty went from a 98 mph fastball guy coming into the draft to a sinker guy with lower velocity. So 4 seam tomatoes 2 seam.
Well Doug maybe all pitchers should at least throw cutters up and in and sinker 2 seamers down in the zone. On this az sf road trip, the opposing pitchers have been very successful at keeping the Reds speed off the bases and striking out a ton of them.
There is no defense against a home run. A double play is pretty good defense against a walk.
The best defense is a good offense?