One of the nice things that comes along with spring training is the potential to not only see prospects play against big leaguers, but to get some Statcast data on them, too. While we can and do get some of that data from the Florida State League and in Triple-A, there’s that 2-level gap of High-A and Double-A where we don’t get it. Unfortunately for Cincinnati Reds fans who are into that kind of stuff, they only have two games this spring in ballparks with Statcast data that goes public – the fewest of any team in all of baseball. But Saturday was one of those games where we did get that data.

Let’s start out with the pitching. Braxton Roxby and Julian Aguiar both pitched in the game, but Roxby faced just one batter and threw three cutters. There’s not a lot to glean from that, but it’s all we’ve got so let’s talk about it.

He averaged 3.23 inches of horizontal movement and 2.82 inches of vertical movement on the pitch. The 3.23 inches of horizontal movement would have ranked 4th best in MLB last season among pitchers with at least 30 innings. The spin rate he averaged was 2685. That would have ranked 6th in baseball last season. He doesn’t throw his cutter as hard as some other pitchers do, averaging 87.6 MPH with it. Roxby had never pitched anywhere with public data before Saturday, so there’s nothing else to compare it to in order to see if things have changed at all over the years.

That can’t be said for Julian Aguiar. In 2022 he pitched in the Florida State League and we had plenty of data for him from his time with Daytona. For Aguiar there were more than a few differences. The biggest thing is that he’s throwing significantly harder today. We knew that he picked up velocity last season, but on Saturday he averaged 96.7 MPH with his 2-seamer. Two years ago in Daytona he averaged 94.1 on the same pitch. His slider was up 2 MPH. In 2022 he didn’t throw a single curveball. On Saturday he threw two of them.

In 2022 he averaged 2282 RPM with his fastball. He was throwing both a 2 and 4-seam fastball that season. On Saturday he only threw the 2-seamer (or at least that’s what the data suggests). His average spin rate against the Rockies was 2125 and only one fastball was over the 2200 mark. The more spin the more “rise” and the less spin the more “sink” there is on a fastball.

As for the hitters, well we get far less data in a single game because they get a few at-bats, maybe. Here’s what the prospect hitters did in the game:

Batter Exit Velo
LA (°) Result Distance
Noelvi Marte 108.7 7 Lineout 126
Noelvi Marte 102.2 1 Single 228
Francisco Urbaez 101.1 5 Single 222
Hector Rodriguez 77.0 -24 Forceout 82
Daniel Vellojin 62.3 54 Pop Out 170
Francisco Urbaez 44.9 -79 Groundout 31

Noelvi Marte hit the ball hard in both of his at-bats in his spring training debut. Francisco Urbaez also topped the 100 MPH exit velo mark on his single.

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Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another. You can follow him on twitter @dougdirt24, or follow the site on Facebook. and Youtube.

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6 Responses

  1. DaveCT

    BA did an article which showed Marte’s improvement in exit velo was among the best in MiLB last year. I want to say top 20.

    In Aguiar’s pre-draft scouting report, BA cited some sources at thinking his velocity could reach 100. Inching towards 97 in March isn’t too bad.

    • Stock

      Interesting in that we have been talking about Petty and Lowder all winter and it turns out Aguiar may be better. At the very least maybe he belongs in the conversation.

      • MBS

        Aguiar has been impressive the last 2 seasons. All 3 Petty, Lowder, and Aguiar should face the crucible of AA. Hopefully all will join Phillips and Richardson by the end of the year in AAA.

      • DaveCT

        I’d wager Aguiar’s stuff is between Petty and Acuna, who I’d say is in the conversation to some degree. Petty seems poised to take off given the increased velocity and the shackles removed. AA should be a good test for all three. Lowder is more unknown, as for pro ball at least. Giving us 25 starts and 125 innings would be good start.

      • MK

        I would not forget Acuna either.early in the season he and Agular were pretty interchangeable.

  2. Stock

    Does anyone have the Minor league schedule for the next 2 weeks? I can get the ML schedule online. Doug has told us about two games (14th in Surprise and 16th in Goodyear) but I have no cle about the rest.