Rece Hinds and Peyton Burdick both extended their hit streaks behind a strong start from Carson Spiers in Louisville’s win, Allan Cerda hit a long home run and Tyler Callihan had three hits in Chattanooga’s 10-inning walk-off win, Jay Allen II hit yet another home run for Dayton, and Alfredo Duno picked himself up his third homer of the year in Daytona.

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The Louisville Bats won 6-2. Box Score

The Chattanooga Lookouts won 3-2. Box Score

The Dayton Dragons lost 9-5. Box Score

The Daytona Tortugas lost 3-1. Box Score

The ACL Reds had the day off

5/8 Game Preview

Team Record Time (ET) Probable Box Score Listen Watch
Louisville 17-17 11:05am Phillips Here Here Here
Chattanooga 8-19 11:15am TBA/TBA Here Here Here
Dayton 12-16 11:00am Hubbart Here Here Here
Daytona 17-11 6:35pm Serwinowski Here Here N/A
ACL Reds
1-1 9:00pm TBA Here N/A N/A

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20 Responses

  1. DaveCT

    Seems like with innings and pitch limits as well as pitch limits within innings being what they are, a guy like Carson Spiers will have a path forward at the old fashioned long man/spot starter. Typically these have been guys with more pitch ability than pure stuff and he sure fits that profile. He’s just a fun guy to watch throw.

    Aguiar may have a bit more upside than Spiers, but both were efficient tonight. Spiers, 6 innings with 86/58 pitches/strikes; and Aguiar, 6 innings with 85/52 pitches/strikes. That’ll get it done!

    The Daytona starters and piggyback starters continue to remind me of the 2022 group there, somewhat unheralded but putting up some nice effforts,Benschoter, Aguiar, Acuna, Rivera, Farr and Franco (before injury) all did some nice work.

  2. Michael Wilson

    Good pitching last night from 3 of the 4 teams. Fun to see. Spiers very solid, good to see a reasonable pitch count. Hope Maxwell gets promoted soon, he’s ready. Montero with good numbers so far and he cut down on his walks last night.

  3. Old Big Ed

    Rece Hinds in 23 PAs in May has slashed .400/.478/.750, with 3 walks and only 4 strikeouts. He did the same last year at AA, when on June 9 he got out of bed and slashed his strikeout rate for the rest of the season.

    I am not sure why Hinds isn’t a better option than Will Benson, who is striking out more than 42% of the time. Equally fast; hits right-handed; better arm and better defender in general.

    Maxwell is MLB ready. He doesn’t need any AAA time.

    Jay Allen needs to be sent to Chattanooga soon.

  4. SultanofSwaff

    I like Jay Allen, but I wonder if his approach is sustainable. Nice BB/K rate, but 56% of his batted balls are pulled and the .429 BABIP indicates regression could be coming. I’d see if things normalize before moving him up.

    Maxwell needs to be pushed. This is one of those lightning in a bottle situations where you need to let water find its level.

    • Stock

      I think you are placing too much of Allen’s performance on luck and not enough on hitting the ball hard and often. When you hit the ball hard you will without a doubt have a higher BABIP. By minimizing your K’s you will have a higher BA, OBP, Slg% and OPS. You are a regular on here so I know you already know all of this and agree with all of this. Since we don’t have any knowledge of his exit velocities, I can not be certain he is hitting the ball harder than most in the Midwest league. But my guess is very few players can match his average exit velocity in the league. Speed also has an impact on BABIP. The faster you are the more IF hits you will get. Between the exit velocity and speed, I would expect Allen’s BABIP to be in the .350 – .375 than the normal .300 – .325 range of the Midwest league. But enough of what you already know.

      But let’s ignore exit velocity and focus on the high BABIP. If you took away 5 hits from Allen his BABIP drops from .429 to a league typical .310. But taking away these 5 hits also drops his BA from .387 to .306. His OBP drops from .500 to .434. His SLG% drops from .694 to .693 and his OPS drops from 1.194 to 1.047. This would drop Allen from a league leading OPS to 2nd in the league, but first if you performed the same regression analysis on Alex Freeland to lower his BABIP below .400

      In short, BABIP luck has turned a great start by Allen into a very great start.

      • MK

        Allen just looks more confidant this season. Previous years he seemed to be trying to make contact. This year he is trying to make hard contact.

      • Mauired

        Well let’s just split the difference and say he’s good and lucky. But even if he “regresses”, he will simply not be hitting close to .400 and maybe closer to .300 instead. So far I’m getting very excited about Jay Allen. I had simply given up on him after his first two full seasons were busts due to injury and ineffectiveness. However if he keeps this up he will be a top 100 MLB prospect by mid season. It’s the biggest turnaround in the organization.

      • DaveCT

        Maui, thing I like about Allen is he knows how to use his speed. There’s a lot of fast guys out there, but not all of them know how to use their speed. And it’s not just a turnaround we’re seeing, IMO, it’s that he came back armed for bear. And that is fire and competitiveness. Cabrera has it too, I think, based on the times I watched him on MiLB TV.

    • The Duke

      It’t not like he’s hitting .295 with a .429 BABIP, he’s hitting .387. I’m pretty sure we don’t expect him to be Ted Williams and hit near .400.

      I would leave Allen in Dayton through at least the end of the first half so he can continue to have the first sustained success of his career a bit longer.

  5. MBS

    Aguiar 6 IP his last 2 outings, as @Dave pointed out above, he was pitch efficient. It looks like last year they let him go 90 or more pitches in a game 3 times. There’s little chance they use him on the Reds in 24, so no rush, but it would be nice to see him go a bit deeper and see how he responds.

    Also there’s no rush on Maxwell, but you can’t deny 0’s forever. I’m guessing he’ll be in AAA by June.

  6. MBS

    I’ve never cared to look up anyone’s LD%/GB%/FB% before, but now I can’t stop watching Collier’s.

    2024 to date
    LD% 19.5%
    GB% 41.5%
    FB% 39%

    LD% 23.2%
    GB% 53%
    FB% 23.9%

    With Collier’s and Allen’s 2024 turnarounds (especially Allen’s) it feels like we got 2 new prospects this year.

  7. Stock

    Sultan got me thinking about luck so I decided to look at the top 25 players in the Midwest league (as ranked by OPS). I adjusted their hit total up or down to place their BABIP as close to .320 as possible without going over .320. I assumed all hits added/taken away were singles.

    Here is the revised top 25:

    Rank/Age/Player/Adj. OPS
    1/21/Jay Allen/1.047
    2/22/Alex Freeland/0.982
    4/22/CJ Kayfus/0.916
    5/24/Josh Zamora/0.913
    6/23/Rubel Cespedes/0.91
    7/19/Cam Collier/0.896
    8/25/Austin Murr/0.889
    9/21/Alex Mooney/0.864
    10/20/Hector Rodriguez/0.861
    11/22/Ricardo Olivar/0.845
    12/23/Brett Roberts/0.841
    13/23/Luke Gold/0.834
    14/22/Will Simpson/0.828
    15/23/Chase Luttrell/0.826
    16/21/Luke Keaschall/0.819
    17/20/Carter Jensen/0.818
    18/20/Sal Stewart/0.798
    19/25/Devin Ortiz/0.797
    20/24/Brett Squires/0.783
    21/23/Kai Murphy/0.77
    22/20/Gregory Barrios/0.77
    23/22/Zach Levenson/0.759
    24/22/Brett Bateman/0.753
    25/20/Pedro Ramirez/0.715

    Then I decided to focus on the true prospects. I am happy Pedro Ramirez is doing well but at age 25 he should not be in the Midwest league if he is truly a prospect. I removed all players 23 and older. This left me with 16 prospects. More important to Reds fans is that 4 of these 16 are Reds prospects and three of them sit in the top 7.

    Rank/Age/Player/Adj. OPS
    1/21/Jay Allen/1.047
    2/22/Alex Freeland/0.982
    4/22/CJ Kayfus/0.916
    5/19/Cam Collier/0.896
    6/21/Alex Mooney/0.864
    7/20/Hector Rodriguez/0.861
    8/22/Ricardo Olivar/0.845
    9/22/Will Simpson/0.828
    10/21/Luke Keaschall/0.819
    11/20/Carter Jensen/0.818
    12/20/Sal Stewart/0.798
    13/20/Gregory Barrios/0.77
    14/22/Zach Levenson/0.759
    15/22/Brett Bateman/0.753
    16/20/Pedro Ramirez/0.715

    Finally you can argue that a hitter age 22 and in the Midwest league is either not a prospect or the plan is to move him to AA this year. I can see a 22 year old player who was drafted in 2023 to start in A+ to make sure their stop is successful before moving on. Here are the 9 prospects under the age of 22:

    Rank/Age/Player/Adj. OPS
    1/21/Jay Allen/1.047
    2/19/Cam Collier/0.896
    3/21/Alex Mooney/0.864
    4/20/Hector Rodriguez/0.861
    5/21/Luke Keaschall/0.819
    6/20/Carter Jensen/0.818
    7/20/Sal Stewart/0.798
    8/20/Gregory Barrios/0.77
    9/20/Pedro Ramirez/0.715

    • DaveCT

      What’s interesting is that this is really close to what most who are watching the team without analytics would see. So the data corroborates the eye test and vice versa.

      • MK

        Dave do you mean Stock wasted his time with his research. He could have just watched? :)

      • DaveCT

        Didn’t Marge Scott call that just sitting around watching games?

  8. Little Earl

    Two struggling Reds pitchers pitched today.

    Chase Petty: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
    Connor Phillips: 4.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 5 BB, 3 K

    • Andrew

      Phillips just doesn’t seem to be a starter long term. Seems destined for the bullpen

      • Mauired

        No he doesn’t. I watched one of his starts a couple weeks ago. Reminded me of Nuke Laloosh. Has no control. Lots of balls, walks, hit batters. And it’s consistent. If this was 2005 Reds it would be one thing, but Reds have a lot of good starting pitching depth now and there’s no need for a guy that could easily average a walk per inning.

        Sadly at this point he’s either in Reds bullpen later or part of a trade. A year ago in AA, he seemed like the Reds top starting pitching prospect.

    • MK

      They both pitched pretty well the last time they pitched and were OK today. Maybe they have made some adjustments.