The draft has come and gone and the signing deadline is past us. The traded deadline has also come and gone. That means that it’s time to update the Cincinnati Reds Top 25 Prospect List.
This list was first released over on Patreon as supporters of the work done here on the site get some articles and information early for their support. If that sounds like something you’d be interested in, go give it a look.
It has not been a good year for the Reds farm system. They’ve dealt with plenty of injuries – some major ones, at that – and plenty of poor performances. But there have been a few guys that have stepped forward, too.
All ages listed are as of August 1st, 2024
1. Chase Burns | RHP | Age: 21
Current Team: Unassigned | Acquired: 1st Round (2024)
Stock: Stable
The Cincinnati Reds used the #2 overall pick in the draft to select Chase Burns out of Wake Forest less than a month ago. He hasn’t pitched since June and hasn’t been assigned to a team by the Reds yet. And there’s a chance that he won’t pitch again this year given the long layoff between when he last pitched.
2. Alfredo Duno | C | Age: 18
Current Team: Daytona (IL) | Acquired: 2023 International Signee
Stock: Up
After performing very well in 2023 in the Dominican Summer League, but not catching as he dealt with an elbow issue, the Reds skipped him right past the Arizona Complex League and sent him to Single-A Daytona. His OPS is 110 points higher than the league average despite his being one of the youngest players in the league and doing it as a catcher. He’s shown skill behind the plate, too. Unfortunately a fractured rib has kept him off of the field for the last nine weeks.
3. Chase Petty | RHP | Age: 21
Current Team: Chattanooga | Acquired: Trade (Twins, 2023)
Stock: Stable
This season has been a bit of a mixed bag for Chase Petty. His stuff is unquestionably better. His velocity is up and his cutter is flashing itself as a plus offering. With that, though, his control has taken a step backwards a bit, his strikeouts haven’t really gone up, and his groundball rate is down (but still above-average). He’s pitched much better after a really tough start in April, but he’s still battled some inconsistency during the year.
4. Rhett Lowder | RHP | Age: 22
Current Team: Chattanooga | Acquired: 1st Round (2023)
Stock: Down
After a good start to the year while with Dayton, Rhett Lowder has been inconsistent in his time in Double-A. He’s currently riding a good streak of four starts where he’s performed well. Still, he was expected to be one of the most polished and quick moving pitchers from the 2023 draft and while he’s held his own in Double-A, he’s still having to learn quite a bit there, too. While his stock is down a bit because of some of the inconsistency, he’s still a quality prospect who’s a Top 100 caliber pitcher.
5. Edwin Arroyo | SS | Age: 20
Current Team: Unassigned | Acquired: Trade (Mariners, 2022)
Stock: Down
In late March Edwin Arroyo underwent shoulder surgery and he hasn’t, and won’t play this season. After a strong performance in 2023 at the plate, Arroyo is going to have to show that the shoulder injury is behind him and he can resemble the hitter he was the last time he was on the field. Shoulder injuries aren’t always something that everyone bounces back from, which is why his stock is down just a little bit for me.
6. Cam Collier | 3B | Age: 19
Current Team: Dayton | Acquired: 1st Round (2022)
Stock: Stable
It’s been an inconsistent season for Cam Collier. He obliterated the ball in April, but then had a 3-53 slump that lasted for a little more than two weeks in May. While he climbed out of that slump he’s still battled to find hits with consistency. The power has taken a step forward and he’s currently got 16 doubles and 15 home runs in 91 games, and his athleticism has looked a little stronger this year, too. That said – he’s hitting .246 for the second season in a row, strikeouts are up a little bit. There’s a mixed bag of improvements he’s made, but some things that still need to move in the right direction.
7. Sal Stewart | 3B/2B | Age: 20
Current Team: Dayton | Acquired: 1st Round (2022)
Stock: Stable
Sal Stewart had been one of the more consistent hitters in the organization this year. He’s hitting for a good average, walking nearly as often as he’s struck out, and showing solid power. But he’s on the injured list with a hand/wrist laceration and hasn’t played in the last three weeks.
8. Ricardo Cabrera | 3B | Age: 19
Current Team: Daytona | Acquired: International Free Agent (2022)
Stock: Stable
After crushing the ball last season in Arizona, Ricardo Cabrera moved up to Single-A Daytona this year. While his offensive numbers don’t match those that he put up in the complex league, the two hitting environments couldn’t be any more different. Daytona plays in the most pitcher friendly league in the minors, and the ball flies out in Arizona. Cabrera’s hit well for the league, showing power and some ability to hit for average, and he’s also added in 15 steals. He’s currently on the injured list, but isn’t expected to miss much time (he hasn’t missed a week at this point).
9. Sammy Stafura | SS | Age: 19
Current Team: Daytona | Acquired: 2nd Round (2023)
Stock: Up
Arguably one of the biggest risers this season has been Sammy Stafura. As a 2nd round pick a year ago, it’s not as though he wasn’t seen as talented and a guy with a big upside. But he also hit .071 in 12 games last year and looked overmatched much of the time at the plate. This year he came out and put up a 1.031 OPS in three weeks in the complex league and got promoted to Daytona after that. While he hasn’t matched that same production, he’s been a better than league average hitter in Florida, shown a good approach, all of the tools you want to see, and the performance is up.
10. Julian Aguiar | RHP | Age: 23
Current Team: Louisville | Acquired: 12th Round (2021)
Stock: Up
The reigning Reds minor league pitcher of the year, Julian Aguiar is having another good season on the mound. He was back in Chattanooga to begin this season after finishing the year there last year and he took steps forward in the first half. That got him promoted up to Triple-A, where in seven outings he’s been a little inconsistent. Still, he’s pitched well this year and has arguably been the organization’s best starting pitcher in the minors once again this season.
11. Hector Rodriguez | OF | Age: 20
Current Team: Dayton | Acquired: Trade (Mets, 2022)
Stock: Stable
One of the better hitters for average in the farm system, Rodriguez makes plenty of contact, has a little bit of pop, and can hit the ball to all fields. He doesn’t walk all that often, which holds down his on-base percentage quite a bit, and while he isn’t exactly a new outfielder, he didn’t spend much time playing there before joining the Reds two years ago and he’s still looking like a guy who lacks some experience out there.
12. Blake Dunn | OF | Age: 25
Current Team: Louisville | Acquired: 15th Round (2021)
Stock: Down
Cincinnati’s reigning minor league player of the year, Blake Dunn just hasn’t seemed to ever really get it going this season for more than brief stretches. He’s striking out more, hitting for less power, hitting for much lower average. The tools are still there, but the production simply isn’t.
13. Carlos Jorge | OF | Age: 20
Current Team: Dayton | Acquired: International Free Agent (2021)
Stock: Down
Similar to Blake Dunn, Carlos Jorge just hasn’t seemingly gotten things going this season outside of short stretches. Jorge, though, is also five years younger and two/three levels lower than where Dunn has been this season. His strikeout rate is way up, which has resulted in him struggling to hit for average and his walk rate being about half of what it was in Daytona has really kept his on-base percentage down, too. Defensively he’s gone from inexperienced in center to a guy who looks like a plus defender in a very short amount of time and he’s still got all of the tools you want to see.
14. Tyson Lewis | SS | Age: 18
Current Team: Unassigned | Acquired: 2nd Round (2024)
Stock: Stable
The Cincinnati Reds used their 2nd round pick last month to select Tyson Lewis with the 51st overall pick. The shortstop out of high school signed for $3,047,500 – well above the $1.8M slot for the 51st pick. A strong athlete, Lewis has the potential to be an above-average hitter while also being able to handle shortstop from a defensive perspective.
15. Luke Holman | RHP | Age: 21
Current Team: Unassigned | Acquired: 2nd Round (2024)
Stock: Stable
After posting a 2.75 ERA at LSU in 2024, the Reds picked Luke Holman with their 2nd round competitive balance pick (#71 overall). Much like Chase Burns, Holman hasn’t pitched since June, hasn’t been assigned to a team yet, and he might not pitch the rest of the year given the long layoff between the end of the college baseball season and the draft.
16. Rece Hinds | OF | Age: 23
Current Team: Louisville | Acquired: 2nd Round (2019)
Stock: Down
While Rece Hinds made his big league debut earlier this season and took home National League Player of the Week honors for his first week with the Reds, he found himself back in Triple-A shortly after. Tons of strikeouts continue to be a problem for Hinds, who has 134 of them in 351 plate appearances in Triple-A this season (that’s 38.2%). That inability to make more contact has limited what he can do at the plate as he’s hitting just .216/.293/.400 with Louisville this year. The upside remains there as he shows otherworldly power at times, can run quite well, and is a strong defender in right field with a laser arm.
17. Adam Serwinowski | LHP | Age: 20
Current Team: Dayonta | Acquired: 15th Round (2022)
Stock: Up
After having some success in limited action in 2023 for the Reds out in Goodyear at the complex level, Adam Serwinowski has made 19 starts for Daytona this season and has been even better. His walk rate has improved, though it’s still a bit high, and while his strikeout rate has come down, it’s still at a high rate. He’s still being limited by pitch counts, so he’ll have to continue to prove he can keep his performance at these levels as he pitches deeper into games and adds more innings as he moves forward.
18. Connor Phillips | RHP | Age: 23
Current Team: Unassigned | Acquired: Trade (Mariners, 2022)
Stock: Down
It would be tough to say that anyone who has remained healthy this year has had a worse outcome on the field than Connor Phillips. He entered the season as arguably the Reds top pitching prospect, who pitched in the big leagues at the end of 2023, but he struggled so much in Triple-A that the organization sent him all the way back to the complex in Goodyear to try and get him right. He hasn’t pitched in a game seven weeks. His pure stuff still seems to be there, but the consistency with which he was able to execute with it was non-existent for much of the season.
19. Zach Maxwell | RHP | Age: 23
Current Team: Louisville | Acquired: 6th Round, 2022
Stock: Stable
If there’s a single reliever in the farm system that has closer stuff, it’s Zach Maxwell. With two plus pitches to his name he’s got the pure stuff to pitch at the back of a big league bullpen. But he’s still battling consistency with the strikezone. He’s walked 29 batters in 37.0 innings this season to go with his 3.16 ERA. But he’s also struck out 63 batters. When he’s on, he’s about as filthy as they come.
20. Sheng-En Lin | INF/RHP | Age: 18
Current Team: ACL Reds | Acquired: International Free Agent (2023)
Stock: Up
After struggling a bit in a handful of games last summer after signing, Sheng-En Lin came out and hit well in 2024 with the ACL Reds. He started out hot and slowed down some as the season went along, but finished with a .308/.418/.419 line. The 18-year-old struck out more than you’d like to see, and his power wasn’t showing up in games all that much, but he showed a solid approach at the plate and the tools and athleticism you wanted to see. Once the season was over he moved to the mound where he’ll continue to pitch through instructional league.
21. Adolfo Sanchez | OF | Age: 17
Current Team: DSL Reds | Acquired: International Free Agent (2024)
Stock: Down
Take the stock being down grade with a grain of salt. Adolfo Sanchez is a 17-year-old who if he were in high school in the US would be a junior. Still, he was the clubs top signee in January and got a large bonus and he’s struggled at the plate – striking out 50 times in 145 trips to the dish while hitting just .219.
22. Jay Allen II | OF | Age: 22
Current Team: Dayton | Acquired: 1st Round (2021)
Stock: Up and Down?
No one started out the season better than Jay Allen II did. On June 7th he was hitting .308/.442/.546 with 13 steals in 38 games played. Since then he’s hit .132 with four extra-base hits in 44 games played. It’s been a season of absolute extremes for Allen II. You saw the upside and the tools in the first two months of the season, but the last two months have been about as bad as they get, too.
23. Yerlin Confidan | OF | Age: 21
Current Team: Daytona | Acquired: International Free Agent (2019)
Stock: Up
After a big season in his professional debut and winning MVP of the Arizona Complex League in 2021, Yerlin Confidan dealt with injuries in both 2022 and 2023 with Daytona and couldn’t replicate his success. This season has gone better, particularly in the second half so far. Perhaps it’s merely a prolonged hot streak, but his walk rate is up, his strikeout rate is down, and his power is also up during the last seven weeks since returning from the injured list. Confidan has high-end exit velocities and big time power potential – he’s just got to be more consistent and of late, he’s been able to do that.
24. Mike Sirota | OF | Age: 21
Current Team: Unassigned | Acquired: 3rd Round (2024)
Stock: Stable
When the 2024 college baseball season began, Mike Sirota was projected as a 1st round pick, perhaps as a guy who could sneak into the top 10. But his junior season was a down one thanks to a very tough start. In the final month of the year he crushed the ball, posting an OPS of 1.253 in his last 21 games played. He’s got plus tools to work with and could vault up the list once he gets on the professional fields if he can pick up where he left off in that final stretch of his college career.
25. Leo Balcazar | SS | Age: 20
Current Team: Dayton | Acquired: International Free Agent (2021)
Stock: Down
The 2023 season got out to a strong start for Leo Balcazar, but at the end of April he tore his ACL immediately after scoring the winning run in a walk-off victory for Daytona. After only playing a few weeks in Single-A and recovering from a torn ACL, the Reds were aggressive with a promotion to High-A Dayton in 2024. It’s been a struggle for the now 20-year-old at the plate as he’s been unable to find much consistent success and is hitting just .239 with just 10 walks and just nine extra-base hits in 74 games played. The numbers are pretty much down across the board and his explosiveness and athleticism seem to have taken a step back from where it was pre-injury.
Arroyo is the only top 10 position prospect who could potentially help the 2025 Reds. That is still only “potentially” as he’ll probably start in AA, and who knows how he’ll perform after a surgery, and a year off.
I don’t want to give up on Dunn, Hinds, and Hurtubise, but they aren’t top 10 and haven’t proven that they can hit AAA pitchers consistently. They are longshots at this point.
On the positive side we do seem to have good pitching up and down the minor leagues. We already have a pretty full, and controllable major league group of pitchers. That’s an asset that I’ll be interested in seeing how it’s used. Do we trade pitching prospects for bats, or do we trade MLB pitching for position prospects?
Personally feel like Lowder will help at some point in 2025 as well. Likely not until mid-season or later, but if he continues his good starts, he will be in Louisville to finish this season.
As for Arroyo, I guess it all depends on how he bounces back from being out a year. Some guys do that well and others it takes a few months to get back everything. If he can bounce back pretty quickly, there’s no question he will be with the Reds at some point next season.
Idk why not start by drafting Condon instead of Burns ??? It still doesn’t make sense to me as much as I like having pitching 1st , we needed a Charlie Condon way more imo
Good list. With the exception of Burns, I think the farm lacks top of scale talent as of now. Stewart, Duno, Collier, Arroyo could all make a jump but I think the real talent is the depth of the system. IMO, this team has one of the stronger 15-30 prospects lists. Lots of younger talent that is making some names. Henley, Pitelli, Mariano, Lin, etc. I also think that the team has a plethora of SP arms that can really show some homegrown talent for many years. Ty Floyd didn’t even make the list and could end up being a great SP3 in the league. Last 3 IFA classes have produced some really intriguing talent with many just now in stateside pro ball. Over the next 2 years, this farm has a chance to really catapult in the rankings if some of the young guns can develop and produce.
I hope Ty Floyd has that upside, but he’s going to go nearly 2 years between throwing competitive pitches in a live game setting, hard to say what to expect while also making the jump from college to pros.
Touching on our recent IFA classes, it feels like the Reds have made a shift with the elimination of the high level rookie league in that they are getting a lot more bodies for the DSL teams and using a lot of them with the ACL team as well. The high school draftees have been fewer with the draft being cut in half so while a few draftees and UDFA US prospects will play in the ACL, it feels almost like a graduated DSL team at times. Even this years draft I could see Tyson Lewis bypassing ACL and starting in Daytona next season. Colon and Casiano will likely be ACL guys but that team feels like it will largely be dominated by this years DSL standouts and high dollar guys like Sanchez, Mariano, Yeycol Soriano, Jaset Martinez, Christian Lopez, etc….
That’s a subtle point, the strength being the depth vs. top shelf. And, as you state, it may only be transitory, as the younger kids establish themselves further.
With that, i do think we have a few top shelf ‘items,’ beginning with Burns snd Duno, who, being a big, big kid, is impressively athletic — in particular, he seems to have terrific hands. I’m very bullish on Cabrera, as well, and Stafura is now nipping at his heels. And let’s not forget Edwin Arroyo, who is a top 100 kind of talent.
Do, where i see you point, and agree, our more elite players may only be veiled for a short time. 2025 is going to be fun.
How close was Lorant to making the list? The peripherals are impressive and it seems like the Reds are trying to convert him to a starter, although limiting his appearance counts like they do with other young pitching prospects.
Any gauge on his stuff?
He was in the conversation for the last few spots on the list. But he’s a guy who averages 90.1 MPH on his fastball. He’s going to have to keep proving it as he moves up the ladder.
Lorant averages only 90.1 mph on his fastball?! That is shocking information. Makes sense why you don’t have him included, then. Much like Carlos Sanchez and his high ground ball rate last year.
Yeah, thought Mey might get a mention too.
My reliever criteria is basically this: You don’t really get considered unless there are two things going for you – you have legit big league closer stuff, and you’ve performed well in at least Double-A.
Mey is halfway there.
Too high:
I like Duno, but that is an awfully small sample size and he has missed a lot of time this year. The talking heads around the internet seem to love him too though. I hope he can get back on the field this season. Seems like a long time for a rib injury.
Dunn has not been very good this year, be it in the majors or at AAA. Top 25 still, yeah, he’s not that far removed from a great year, but 12 feels rich to me
Leo Balcazar has struggled mightily this year and has hit for almost no power.
Too Low:
I’m very high on Sammy Stafura. Given how tough it is to hit in Daytona and the results he’s had as a 19 year old i’d at the very least have him above Cabrera. Cabrera probably has a little more power and is the same age, but Stafura is faster and more likely to stick as a SS.
Adam Serwinowski has been very slow developing, but he is coming along pretty much as good as we could have hoped. The walk rate needs to come down a little more and he needs stretched out a little more, and hopefully he’ll get the chance to do so in Dayton next year after pitching a controlled full season this year. She should get to around 90 IP, maybe closer to 100 if they have him go more in fall instructionals. The goal should be to have him throw a normal full season next year.
I know Rhett Lowder is still pretty high at #4 on the list, but I think he is our clear #2. The results have been iffy in AA and he got hit hard in the middle of the season, but he is figuring it out and his underlying peripherals were solid even when he was struggling. Learning to pitch to contact better against professional hitters is starting to pay dividends over the last month and I think he’s a clear #2 after Burns.
Should be on the list:
Not only did Bernard Moon end up with a near identical OPS to Sheng-En Lin (.831 vs .834) he did it by improving each month and in July the last month of the ACL, he had a .972 OPS. A second baseman with some speed and power potential who steadily improved, he’s a top 20 guy for me.
Kyle Henley was another ACL standout who’s carrying tool is 80 grade speed. 35 SB in 53 games, one of the fastest players in the 2023 draft. Got on base at a good clip and started to show more extra base pop as the season went along, he also has a solid frame to add a little more power as he matures. The K rate needs to come down some, but the ceiling his high.
Ryan Cardona is old for A ball (High A, but still A ball), turning 24 back in May, but after seeing him pitch live, I think his stuff and smarts can play at a big league level. The upside is limited, but he has a solid 3 pitch mix with a fastball that sits low 90’s but can touch 93-94 from time to time and his changeup has progressed into a usable pitch. I saw 5 of his 11 consecutive no hit innings and he was using all three pitches to get whiffs, changing eye level, setting hitters up. The upside may only be a backend starter, but I think it’s a big league profile.
Dunn is one of those guys where next year he’s either going to make it or he’s going to drop down in a big way. Once I got outside of the top 10 I had a real problem differentiating between a lot of guys the rest of the way. Take Dunn for example – he’s got five big league tools. Some of those are big league skills right now, too. The performance this season hasn’t been good. But he’s got a track record in the past of hitting, too. But he’s also at an age where he’s basically on a make-or-break it as a big leaguer in the next year. How do you rank a guy like that versus say, Sheng-En Lin who is 18, plays in the complex where the ball flies and he didn’t show any power, had a high strikeout rate, but still produced well at the plate for the season and is also a potential pitcher but we haven’t actually seen him on the mound in like 18 months? What do you do with a guy like Rece Hinds, who has more home runs in the big leagues at the age of 23 than probably 90% of the guys in the farm system right now will ever have, but also has a massive problem making contact and is tough to project as a starter without a big time improvement.
Balcazar was a guy that I’m willing to give a slight break to. He was 18 in the first half of the season. He was less than a year out from an ACL injury for the first two months of the season, too. It’s definitely been a lost season, and as I noted – he hasn’t quite been as explosive as he was last year. That, of course, is why I dropped him so far on my list. But I have seen him do things in the past and with the injury/timeline, and his age all mixed in there – he’s got a little more wiggle room for me here.
Lowder – I think he’s still a top 100 guy. But with specific regards to his spot on the Reds list – I think Petty has no doubt better stuff. His control isn’t as good, particularly this year. Both guys need to work on command some. I’m leaning on the stuff when both guys have battled inconsistency at the same level with similarish enough numbers. They’re extremely close in value, though, and I’m perfectly fine with anyone who wants to have Rhett Lowder higher.
Moon and Henley were both guys that were on the periphery of the conversation at the back of the list. But the complex leagues are a lower level of competition than they’ve ever been before, and the gap from the complex to A-ball is also bigger than it’s ever been. I just want to see more from anyone who is in the complexes before getting too high on them.
Hard to argue with any of that. Obviously, you put a ton of time, thought, and consideration into this.
I’m good with the Cabrera/Stafura ranking as they are, 8 & 9.
For one, Cabrera has spent the whole year in Daytona and the FSL, and has worked his way through seeing opponents multiple times, dealt with their adjustments, as well as the grit and grind of his first year of full season ball. I think there is a lot to that.
Also, watching Cabrera, he has leadership ability. He has carried that certain target all year of having been a big signing, batting 3rd, and being a rock in the infield. His teammates rally around him, IMO, and his intangibles are impressive.
That said … i’m very, very impressed with Sammy Stafura. He has really nice actions at short stop, gliding easily with a strong arm. His offense, in those same soul crushing FSL parks has also been quite good. And, where Cabrera has had two full summers in complex league ball, Stafura had a cup of coffee in AZ last year and is doing very well in his first significant taste of pro ball.
I’d wager we are seeing the early stages of a pretty interesting competition between these two.
Cabrera has been playing mostly 3B since Stafura got to Daytona with the odd start here and there at SS, and lately he has been playing some 2B as well. Stafura on the other hand has only played SS in the field, which shows which way the brass is leaning for their future. Both should be in Dayton next year, and if Stovall is also in Dayton then I would guess we see Cabrera primarily at 3B next year.
With Acosta, who i still like, and Balcazar likely repeating Hi A next year, that will be quite an infield.
The Dragons DH this year was usually getting an extra OF in the game or one of Stewart or Collier, with the other playing 3B. When Stewart started playing more 2B as the year went on it leaned a little heavier to the OFs. Next year will likely be juggling IF through the DH with some OF mixed in.
Thank you Doug. In my opinion, this year, at this time, is probably the toughest time I have seen to make a list like this in recent years. There has just been so much inconsistency throughout the system this year. And so many guys could be interchanged on this list, including some that are not on the list. This couldn’t have been easy. It brings a high potential for criticism. I commend you for doing so, Doug.
Anyone who has spent a lot of time watching the Dragons live this year, which I would be one, would tell you if given the choice to see Stewart or Collier at the plate, they would pick Stewart. I would switch those two on the list.
Hard for me to see how Hinds stock is down. Since a part of this is potential there is no doubt Rece isn’t ready yet, but he has certainly proven what his potential is.
With Hinds – His stock is down because he’s got a .293 on-base percentage in Triple-A this year with an OPS of .701 while striking out 39% of the time he steps to the plate. That does ignore his one hotter than the sun week in the big leagues, but I’m putting my faith in his entire career over one week.
When the year began I was easily the highest on Hinds among anyone that does this whole prospect thing full time. BA, FG, BP, The Athletic, ESPN – they were all significantly lower on him. Pretty sure that I’m still the high guy when it comes to Hinds. He’s got to make more contact. He’s made adjustments in the past at every other level – but he’s not doing that so far in Triple-A. A 39% strikeout rate is never going to work. Not even he can hit for enough power to overcome that and be a big league starter.
Agreed
I’ve been at the Bats games the past Tuesday and Wednesday nights, and plan to be there again tonight. As DH Tuesday, Hinds lined an HR off the left field foul pole, then struck out three times. Last night he got a base hit on a solid line drive to left center, then added three more strikeouts. In my untrained eye, he does not look good on off speed pitches. Most all his misses were off speed and knees or below. He seems to just wave at them, right hand comes off the bat, and there doesn’t appear to be bat speed on these swings. He does the same thing pitch after pitch, with six strikeouts in the past two nights.
I’m hoping for a good showing tonight. If rankings were only based on one night, Wednesday night Dunn, Maxwell, Richardson would all be all stars and and Gonzalez would be gold glove at SS.
Guessing Spiers and Williamson have exhausted their prospect status?
It’s almost irrelevant, as they are still both relatively young/new to the ML’s as well as valuable guys for 2025. That is especially true given the lack of immediate help available in the high minors in the system. A quartet of Burns, Lowder, Petty, & Aguiar reaching AAA next year or later 25, with Spiers and Williamson vying to ML innings is a significant strength.
Williamson exhausted his last year. Spiers did so at some point last month.
Thanks. Guess i have to stop commenting that Spiers is our most advanced pitching prospect now. All things must pass. Sigh.
I’m really hoping they don’t rush Lowder or Burns up too fast.
I’d like to see Lowder start 25 in AA.
I would like to see Burns start in A+ just like they did with Lowder, but actually wait till mid season to promote him to AA.
Petty on the other hand I think will be ready for AAA, his numbers have been trending in the right direction since his terrible start to the year.
We have enough depth that I don’t see a point in rushing either of them up.
I thoroughly agree. To re-state, rather than hoping these arms arrive in AAA, it’s better to say arriving in the high minors.
In general, i still believe there is much to be gained and learned by having the kids graduate appropriate to their long term development. In particular, that process of getting around the league circuit, seeing teams multiple times, and making adjustments to their adjustments is absolutely key in developing ML players.
From Dave’s Broken Records, the failure of and loss of hitters in the 2020 draft has left a big hole at AA this year.
Hendricks has failed to develop. The loss of Mac Wainwright and Jackson Miller is also important. Those are three prospective solid bats that are just missing.
I know i can’t pin all of the AA disaster there. Arroyo’s injury robbed them of their best player. Both James Free and Alex McGarry just retired. And they were left with light hitting utility guys and fringe prospects like Ibarra and Pitelli.
I’m actually relieved we didn’t promote any of our better players at Dayton up to Chattanooga. It’s got to be discouraging there.
I don’t think we will see any Dayton promotions to Chattanooga unless it’s to make room for someone else, and even then I don’t think their primary guys get moved up. Next year that Dayton team is pretty much going to be moved up together minus a couple guys and a few holdovers from this years Lookouts and the return of Arroyo. Next years Bats roster will be a mixture of holdovers, MiLB free agents, and a few guys moving up from AA to AAA.
2025 Lookouts Prediction
C: Mat Nelson
1B: Ruben Ibarra
2B: Sal Stewart
SS: Edwin Arroyo
3B: Cam Collier
LF: Jay Allen
CF: Carlos Jorge
RF: Hector Rodriguez
DH: Mixture of Collier, Stewart, OF, Ibarra
BN: Ethan O’Donell, OF
BN: Dominic Pitelli, INF
BN: Logan Tanner, C
1. Chase Burns
2. Chase Petty
3. Ryan Cardona
4. Javier Rivera
5. Jose Franco
CL: Luis Mey
Acuna will be there somewhere, too.
As will Tyler Callihan and Austin Callahan
They’ll be relatively young but can’t argue with the talent.
This looks accurate, but let’s hope and expect that Burns and Petty don’t last beyond June in AA. To really move into serious contention they need those 2 and Lowder to make MLB debuts next season – at the very least one at the break and perhaps the others later or into the Sept. callups. Not to rely on them, but get the program moving into 2026 and beyond.
I’d guess Phillips, Acuna, Aguiar are TBD, and Ashcraft and Williamson really to be ready before spring training.
With that volume they could finally thrive even if 2 or 3 falter.
I’d be surprised to see Petty back at AA next year. If Arroyo has big AFL, Winter League, and spring he might just get back on track and go to Louisville. Even if he starts in AA it might be a very short stay if he performs.
Alex McGarry didn’t retire. He’s played for both the Long Island Ducks and with the Kane County Cougars (where he’s still playing) since he was released by the Reds.
I think this year is harder than before to make a Reds prospect list due to the extreme ups and downs and new guys who are performing well but maybe don’t have the stuff or tools as high as scouts can like… Doug made a nice job doing this list at this point…
I’m intriguing on Adolfo Sanchez being #21 but Jirvin Morillo who was one of the most valued prospect signed in that class does not make the list even though Morillo has been performing better all season than Adolfo Sanchez..
It’s got to be very hard to grade out DSL players other than in pedigree.
We could say Morillo has it…
#1 Burns has been assigned to the Dragons. Wonder if this will be similar to Lowder’s assignment last year. Taking a roster spot but never getting into a game. It will put the numbers 1 and 2 draft picks in the same stadium together for the rest of the week.
I keep going back to the Reds brass saying he has innings left. Lowder threw 120 IP last year, so it made sense to shut it down. Burns only had 100 IP in college this year, so maybe they try to get him another 20 or so. Holman had just under 92, so i’d like to see him too. Maybe the Dragons can make a playoff push with all the talent they have. Getting Sal back would certainly help as well.
I realize he was left off because of his age but I’d hope that Ivan Johnson gets a look at Spring Training in 2025.
Although I haven’t seen his stats for the last few games he’s a versatile position player that has been crushing the ball leading to his jump to Louisville.
If K’s are just an acceptable part of the game nowadays then he’ll be fine because he can definitely strike out with the best of them too. Same thing goes for Sheng who likes to swing and miss.
Hopefully the Reds can help these two and Rece cut these down over the off season.
It’s just still hard to believe that 20-25% is an acceptable rate in the modern day league.
Ted W. and Tony G. have to be rolling over.
Getting home grown utility guys instead of expensive vets is a good thing. I’ve always liked Johnson’s athleticism. Urbaez is another. Every team needs these guys.
While it’s been a disappointing 2024 up and down the system, there are some definate positives out there. Let’s hope they they continue to add talent in 25 by drafting high and another strong Intl class.
I’m thinking it’s becoming more and more likely they make a significant trade this Winter to aquire a major outfield hitter with at least 2 years of control (say two of Lowder, Collier, Arroyo, and Stewart) and 1 or 2 more in the Acosta, Allen level to bring that guy in.
I have long been against overpaying at the deadline to sneak into the Wildcard. This is not that. This is a statement about winning and winning big. Most of the other pieces are in place or beginning to come into focus.
All my opinion of course.
Let’s hope we get wildly lucky in next year’s draft lottery again too
Only the first 6 picks are part of the lottery, our 7th pick for Lowder wasn’t a lottery pick. Strictly speaking under the old system we would have had the 4th pick in 2023.
Louisville still searching for pitching help, Casey Kelly. Last name sounds familiar!
Curious if the new prospect from Red Sox, Portes got top 25 consideration. Seems like a good one. High 90s and still a teenager.
I was hoping Huggins would have a breakout and be top 25 by now but he’s been MIA.
The Reds farm is very young for the most part but very robust. They have done a great job of restocking after all the great prospects promoted. About 75% of the active roster has come from farm in the last 3 seasons.
He was in the conversation at the back end of the list. I decided I want to see him a bit more, talk to more people about him, etc.
Man, what a disaster this season has been on the farm. Thanks Doug for all you do, can’t have felt good watching nearly everyone stagnate.
Also @Doug, Lowder didn’t count as a lottery pick. The ineligible teams next year are the White Sox and As.
My memory is failing me! I thought it was a top 7 pick, but it’s a top 6 pick.
In the old system we could have drafted Wyatt Langford in 2023, but then we would have picked potentially as late as 16th this year.
Rhett Lowder
Chase Burns
or
Wyatt Langford
Trey Yesavage (The next SP taken after the top 15 picks)
Probably won’t know the answer to that for 6 more years.