Hector Rodriguez homered for Louisville, Jay Allen II doubled and scored a run for Chattanooga, Jacob Friend homered in Dayton’s win, and Jalen Hairston extended his hit streak to 11 in Daytona’s victory.
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The Louisville Bats lost 5-1. Box Score
- Hector Rodriguez went 1-4 with a home run (24).
- Michael Toglia went 1-4.
- Michael Chavis went 1-3 with a walk.
- Zach McCambley was charged with an unearned run in an inning with a strikeout.
- Hunter Parks threw a shutout inning with 2 strikeouts.
Top Pitch Velocity: Hunter Parks – 96.7 MPH (strike)
Top Exit Velocity: Ivan Johnson – 105.1 MPH (groundout)
Furthest Hit Baseball: Hector Rodriguez – 394 feet (home run)
The Chattanooga Lookouts lost 5-2. Box Score
- Jay Allen II went 1-4 with a double and a run.
- Carlos Sanchez went 1-3 with a walk.
- Alfredo Duno went 0-2 with 2 walks and a run.
- Pablo Aliendo went 1-3.
- Kevin Abel threw 2.0 perfect innings.
- Thomas Farr threw a shutout inning.
The Dayton Dragons won 5-4. Box Score
- Julio Carreras went 1-4 with a walk, double, steal (3), and a run.
- John Michael Faile went 1-2 with 2 walks, a home run (2), HBP, and 2 RBI.
- Jacob Friend went 1-3 with a walk, home run (16), steal (19), HBP, and 2 runs.
- Marcus Smith went 1-4 with a walk, triple, steal (2), and 2 RBI.
- Ty Floyd allowed a run in 4.0 hitless innings with 3 walks and 5 strikeouts.
- Trent Hodgdon threw 3.0 hitless innings with a walk and 5 strikeouts.
The Daytona Tortugas won 7-3. Box Score
- Jalen Hairston went 1-3 with a walk, 2 steals (2), an RBI, and a run.
- Arnaldo Lantigua went 1-4 with a run and 2 RBI.
- Ty Doucette went 1-4 with a run and 2 RBI.
- Rafhlmil Torres went 1-3 with a double, run, and RBI.
- Ichiro Cano went 3-4 with 2 runs and an RBI.
- Anielson Buten went 1-4.
- Dylan King went 1-2 with a walk, double, run, and RBI.
- Dominic Scheffler threw 2.1 hitless innings with 3 walks and 4 strikeouts.
- Mike Villani threw 2.0 hitless innings with 2 walks and 5 strikeouts.
Game Notes
Jalen Hairston extended his hitting streak to 11 games. He’s gone 23-52 during the streak (.442) with seven extra-base hits. He’s now hitting .320/.366/.485 in his 28 games since joining Daytona.
Since July 4th Ichiro Cano has played in 10 games. He’s had hits in nine of them, going 18-39 and hitting .462/.533/.667.
After going 21-45 in the first half, Daytona is now 14-8 in the second half and are in 1st place of the Eastern Division.
The ACL Reds had the day off
They’ll be back on the field on Monday night.
The DSL All-Star Game
The Dominican Summer League held their All-Star game on Sunday. All three Reds prospects who were named All-Stars played in the game.
Angel Nunez came off of the bench and went 0-1. Eider Gutierrez also came off of the bench and he went 1-1 with a single. Ysaias Escalona came out of the bullpen and recorded the final two outs of the 7th inning while giving up a hit and picking up a strikeout.
The DSL Rojos will be back on the field on Monday morning. The DSL Reds will have Monday off before returning to play on Tuesday morning.
Organizational Notes
Cincinnati signed another draft pick over the weekend, adding 19th round right-handed pitcher Ryan Nelson out of East Central Community College to the fold. They have now signed 15 of their 21 draft picks.
Right-handed pitcher Owen Holt retired. He missed all of the 2025 season and most of the 1st half of 2026 before returning to the mound with the ACL Reds earlier this month on rehab. He threw a hitless inning on the 11th and a perfect inning on the 16th. But he retired on Saturday.
7/20 Game Preview
| Team | Record | Time (ET) | Probable | Box Score | Listen | Watch |
| Louisville | 47-47 | OFF | DAY | Here | Here | Here |
| Chattanooga | 46-44 | OFF | DAY | Here | Here | Here |
| Dayton | 48-40 | OFF | DAY | Here | Here | Here |
| Daytona | 35-53 | OFF | DAY | Here | Here | Here |
| ACL Reds | 9:00pm | 9:00pm | TBA | Here | N/A | N/A |
| DSL Reds | 19-14 | OFF | DAY | Here | N/A | N/A |
| DSL Rojos | 16-18 | 11:00am | TBA | Here | N/A | N/A |
I know this won’t be popular with some, but if the Reds decide they can’t realistically contend in 2027 or 2028, I think they should fully commit to building for 2028–2032.
The goal wouldn’t be to remain competitive in the short term. It would be to maximize the number of impact players under team control during what I believe could be the organization’s next legitimate championship window.
That means no player should be considered untouchable—not even Elly De La Cruz or Hunter Greene.
This isn’t because I want to trade them. It’s because players with multiple years of team control have the highest trade value in baseball. If you’re going to rebuild, you should do it when your assets are worth the most, not after their value begins to decline.
Some of these trades are just what Duke posted the other day, but the overall strategy—and any criticism that comes with should be directed at me.
The benchmark I used for EDLC and Greene is the Juan Soto trade. When Washington dealt Soto in August 2022, he had approximately 2½ years of control remaining. Elly and Greene each have roughly 3½ years of control, so in theory their trade value should greater than that of Soto. That said Greene’s injury history brings that back a bit.
Washington received:
CJ Abrams (#9 prospect prior to 2022 season)
MacKenzie Gore (#10 prospect prior to 2022 season)
Robert Hassell III (#30 prospect prior to 2022 season)
James Wood (unranked before 2022, but #11 at 2022 YE so at the time of the trade it is safe to say he was in the top 25 – 50)
In other words, Washington turned one superstar into four top 50 prospects. That’s the type of return I used as the framework for these proposals. Except I did not go that far.
An additional benefit of a full teardown is that the Reds would likely draft near the top of the first round in both 2027 and 2028. Those selections would become another source of high-end talent to complement the prospects acquired in trades. By the time the club is ready to contend again, the roster would consist of players acquired through four different avenues: the current farm system, the trade returns, high draft picks, and future international signings.
But would teams be willing to pay that price? Could you get Dalton Rushing, Josue De Paula, Zach Root, and Eduardo Quintero for Hunter Greene? Would the Braves trade Cam Caminiti, Eric Hartman, Briggs McKenzie, and something else good for Elly De La Cruz? I’m not sure if they would.
Unless the FO is willing to spend a lot of money this offseason, this roster will not compete in either of those season. It would behoove them to consider this and to start operating more like the Brewers and Rays with how they handle talent. Greene you hold until probably mid season so he can rebound from the elbow. Elly is game changer today and would bring back package similar to your above.
@ Stock, isn’t the Nationals Soto trade one of the few over the last 6 years that have turned out well for the selling team?
The Nationals didn’t get much for Mad Max and Trea Turner, the Padres didn’t get much when Soto was traded to the Yankees…I guess Mason Miller to the Padres was a good trade for the As.
I think Reds fans need to be realistic about where this team stands.
The Reds’ strength is their pitching, yet even that projects as no better than average in 2027 unless ownership makes significant investments. Given the organization’s history, I don’t expect that to happen. As a result, I think the Reds enter both 2027 and 2028 with only a small chance of reaching the playoffs.
The Reds had one outstanding month in 2026 when the bullpen was virtually untouchable. Once that bullpen regressed, so did the team. While injuries certainly played a role over the course of the season, the biggest reason for the decline was that the bullpen stopped performing at an elite level and returned to something much closer to its expected talent level.
The strength of this team is its pitching, and here’s how I see it:
Rotation
Burns – Legitimate No. 1 starter.
Greene – Legitimate No. 1 when healthy, but he has been available for only about half of his career.
Abbott – Solid No. 3 starter.
Lodolo – No. 3-quality arm when healthy, but durability has also been an issue.
Lowder – Projects more as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter.
Bullpen
Closer: Emilio Pagán – Below average compared to most MLB closers.
Setup: Tony Santillan – More of a middle-relief option than a late-inning weapon.
Setup: Graham Ashcraft – Probably the best closing option currently on the roster, although I think he was overused this season. His ideal role is the seventh or eighth inning.
Setup: Chase Petty – I know many still see him as a starter, but I believe his long-term value is in relief.
The remaining bullpen options are mostly replacement-level arms.
The rotation also comes with significant injury risk. If Greene or Lodolo miss time again, the Reds are likely turning to pitchers such as Williamson, Aguiar, or Franco. Those are reasonable depth options, but ideally they are fifth starters, not pitchers you want counting on for extended stretches.
Even if everything breaks right, I think this projects as a below-average pitching staff overall.
The offense concerns me even more.
Projected lineup
Catcher – Major question mark.
First Base – Sal Stewart has a chance to be a long-term answer. A post on here ranked him as the 17th-best first baseman in baseball.
Second Base – Major hole.
Third Base – Major hole.
Shortstop – One of the best players in baseball.
Left Field – About average.
Center Field – Major hole.
Right Field – Major hole.
Steer – Below Average
The farm system also offers limited immediate help. Hector Rodriguez projects as an average major leaguer and plays a position currently occupied by one of the Reds 3 best hitters, but beyond him there aren’t many impact position players who appear ready to contribute in 2027.
To become a legitimate contender, the Reds would likely need to add multiple bullpen arms, including a proven closer, strengthen the back of the rotation, and fill at least three of the five major holes in the lineup. That would require a level of spending that I don’t believe ownership is willing to make.
That’s why I don’t think Reds fans should look back at that great month in April 2026 and expect it to represent what this team can sustain over a full six-month season in 2027.
If that’s the reality, then the question isn’t how to patch the roster for 2027—it’s how to build a roster that can truly contend in 2028 and beyond.
Excellent eval of the current roster. Whether the fan base is capable of continuing to support thru a rebuild after years of bad trades & ownership that has no plan other than get by on the cheap is debatable. I am 76 & have followed the Reds since the early 60’s so have experienced the gamut of emotions….
This is a very solid realistic view of the Reds now and moving forward. Looking at the rest of the division, STL is young and improving, the Cubs have money to spend and a solid core, the Pirates best talent is young and if the timing of their Pitching matches up with their hitting they could be very good, and then the Brewers who are the barometer for the division and keep pumping out young talent. The Reds need a full reset, finally stick to rebuild, and build depth through their minors. No more we are close, lets waste our prospect capital on a player that barely moves the needle.
Pagan was rated #5 among 30 MLB closers in 2025.
He was injured and hasn’t performed to that level in 2016.
Here are my 10 trades:
To Philadelphia: Brady Singer, Spencer Steer
To Cincinnati:
Cade Obermueller – Age 22/LHSP/Draft 2025 Rd 2/Current Level A
Gage Wood – Prospect #50, Age 22, Level AAA
To Cleveland: Eugenio Suarez
To Cincinnati:
Will Hynes – 19/RHP/2025 Round 2/ACL
To Chicago Cubs: Nathaniel Lowe
To Cincinnati:
Jaims Martinez – 17/SS/2026 Int 900K/DSL
Pierce Coppola – 23/RH nothing more than a RP
To Miami: Caleb Ferguson Brock Burke
To Cincinnati:
Luis Arena – 18/SS/A Ball
Nate Payne – 20/RHSP/Rd 18/A+
To Texas: Pierce Johnson
To Cincinnati: Hector Osorio 21/OF/A+
To Houston: JJ Bleday
To Cincinnati:
Xavier Neyens – 19/3B/2025 Rd 1/A+
Albert Fermin – 17/3B/2.3 M
To Tampa Bay: Tyler Stephenson
To Cincinnati:
Trevor Harrison – 20/RHP 2023 Rd 5/A+
Jackson Baumeister – 24/RH RP
To Miami: Andrew Abbott
To Cincinnati: Karson Milbrandt Prospect 72, RHP, Age 22, AAA
To LA Dodgers: Hunter Greene
To Cincinnati
Josue DePaula Prospect 4, OF, Age 21, AA
Eduardo Quintero Prospect 30, OF, Age 20, A+
Christian Zazueta Prospect 85, RHP, Age 22, A+
Zach Root, Age 22, LHP, 2025 1st round draft pick, A+
To Seattle: EDLC, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, Sam Moll
To Cincinnati:
Kade Anderson – Prospect #5, LHP, 22, AA
Ryan Sloan – Prospect #8, RHP, 20, AA
Johnny Farmelo – Prospect #60, OF, 21, A+
Felnin Celesten – Prospect #70, SS, 20, A+
Juan Rijo – 17/OF/2.2 M/DSL
Part of the problem with a philosophy of planned mediocrity is that it self perpetuates said mediocrity, not its remedy or its bane.
The Reds, with this ownership and management, are probably incapable of even considering a rebuild, especially just 3 1/2 years after a 100 loss season. It would represent an admission of failure and likely cost the architects of that effort their jobs — how could it not? And leadership won’t take actions that will cost their own jobs. So enacting a scorched earth rebuild is in all likelihood an impossibility.
That said, it’s still interesting to speculate. My first thought it that the M’s trade has EDLC very underrated. Alone, his return would have to be two top fifty guys, with add-ons. Second, Seattle just inked their short stop of the future, Colt Emerson, to a 10-year deal. And they have their 2B of the future, Cole Young, about a year into his ML career. I have thought about an Elly-to-Seattle move, given their long term SS, JP Crawford is struggling and has his contract expiring, combined with the team being in the playoff hunt. My thought is the trade would for practical purposes have to bring back Young. Selfishly, being in the PNW, I’d love to have Elly out here. Seattle also has 6 ML starters filling 5 spots, before Anderson and Sloan, who are thought to be arriving later this year as extra pieces. They have been actually shopping Castillo, and are quietly shopping Hancock. So they don’t need Lodolo.
Not a chance the Mariners make that trade
@stock, I have been banging this same drum lately as well. My issues is Krall and company have already had a chance at a full sell off and have failed. We can not let them do it again with Elly and Hunter.
I would let Krall sell off the expiring contracts and maybe Lodolo at this deadline. Then I would fire him and allow a replacement to trade to off Hunter and Elly at next years deadline with the same amount of time as Soto had.
But you are correct, this team is not going to suddenly start contending the next two years. This rebuild was a failure and it is time to start another one. Sad time to be a reds fan, again.
Fire both Krall and Meador. I have no confidence in them, especially after the Lux and Hayes trades.
Agreed. Hire Matt Kleine as President of Baseball Operations and Will Hudgins as his #2 or throw money at Erick Neander and let him build out a staff. It’s time the Reds start fresh across the board. Let the new staff handle the tear down and rebuild.
Hector is on pace for a 38 HR season if he stayed in Louisville for the entire 150 game minor league slate. That’d also be 97 RBI, 107 R, 24 2B, and 6 3B. I don’t think he will play the full minor league season, but that is certainly getting it done, and getting it done with the MLB ball which isn’t as juiced as the minor league ball this year.
It still baffles me they use a different ball.
Nice game for Jacob Friend. His BABIP has normalized back to .302 and his line is down at .220/.373/.458 as a result. The OBP and slugging are still in a good spot, but he needs to drop that 33% K rate down to around the 25% range to get that batting average back to something more manageable. The .300+ avg was a mirage as I was saying it was then, you can’t rely on an unrealistically high BABIP to last. It’s fun, but it’s a mirage.
The Good: Ty Floyd hasn’t allowed a hit in his last 8 IP with 8 K
The Bad: He still allowed an earned run
The Ugly: He had 6 BB in those 8 IP
He staying healthy is a step forward
He also turns 25 in 6 weeks. If we can get anything out of him it’ll be a win at this point.
The earned run he allowed WS a walked batter just before he was taken out that Quigley allowed to come in when he allowed the first hits of the game.Floyd is progressing nicely though he is on the same restriction’s Petty was on when in Dayton. I was happy they allowed him to go out in the fifth to see if he could qualify for a win. I think he got up to 95 or 96 MPH which was a little above his recent norm. On the whole, very positive.
David Hinojosa switched his commitment to Wake Forest and is heading there. Would have been nice to have nabbed him, but I expected him to head to college.
He is looking to improve at Wake Forest pitching lab for sure
Kind of worried about Becker though. Hope they get that done.
Until I hear an actual negative word, i’m 100% assuming this gets done with no issue. Plenty of guys still unsigned across rds 1-2-3