P.J. Higgins had three hits for Louisville, Austin Hendrick homered in Chattanooga’s win, Justin Lebron hit his 8th home run since being drafted in Dayton, and Sherman Johnson connected for his first professional home run.
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The Louisville Bats lost 3-2. Box Score
- Graham Ashcraft (rehab) threw a perfect inning.
- Carlos Jorge went 2-5.
- Francisco Urbaez went 1-4 with an RBI.
- Noelvi Marte went 2-4 with a triple and a run.
- Leo Balcazar went 1-4 with a double.
- P.J. Higgins went 3-4 with a run.
- Garrett Hampson went 1-3.
- Ben Wereski allowed 2 runs in 5.0 innings with 5 strikeouts.
- Chase Petty threw a perfect inning with 2 strikeouts.
Game Notes
Graham Ashcraft struggled to throw strikes in his previous rehab outing on Sunday, firing just 12 strikes out of 27 pitches. In this game he threw seven strikes out of his eight pitches he needed to record three out.
Top Pitch Velocity: Connor Phillips – 98.2 MPH (ball)
Top Exit Velocity: Noelvi Marte – 103.9 MPH (triple)
Furthest Hit Baseball: Will Benson – 395 feet (lineout)
The Chattanooga Lookouts won 5-1. Box Score
- Alfredo Duno went 1-4 with a run.
- Ruben Ibarra went 0-2 with 2 walks and a run.
- Yerlin Confidan went 1-3 with a run.
- Austin Hendrick went 2-4 with a home run (14), 2 runs, and 3 RBI.
- Peyton Stovall went 2-4 with a double.
- Luke Hayden allowed a run in 5.0 innings with 2 walks and 4 strikeouts.
- Taylor Floyd threw 3.0 perfect innings with 4 strikeouts.
- Johnathan Lavallee threw a hitless inning with a walk and 2 strikeouts.
The Dayton Dragons lost 14-6. Box Score
- Justin Lebron went 2-5 with a home run (8) and 2 RBI.
- Ty Doucette went 2-5 with a home run (17) and 3 RBI.
- Kien Vu went 2-5.
- John Michael Faile went 1-5 with a triple and a run.
- Ryan McCrystal went 1-3 with a walk.
- Tyson Lewis went 1-3 with a double and an RBI.
- Kyle Henley went 2-4 with 2 runs.
- Brady Afthim threw 2.1 perfect innings with 3 strikeouts.
Game Notes
Justin Lebron continues to crush the ball for Dayton since he was drafted. He’s now hitting .301/.348/.639 with four doubles and eight home runs in 19 games played. He’s homered in back-to-back games to start the series against West Michigan.
Ty Doucette got out to a slow start with Dayton when he arrived after a promotion in early August. But since August 19th he’s been on fire for the Dragons, hitting .370/.452/.815 with four doubles, a triple, six home runs, and 17 RBI in 13 games played. That’s boosted his line with Dayton over the first month with them to .291/.429/.646.
Kien Vu has had back-to-back multi-hit games since rejoining Dayton this week. He only had four total multi-hit games out of his 48 games played with Chattanooga.
The Daytona Tortugas lost 5-3. Box Score
- Sherman Johnson went 1-4 with a walk and a home run (1).
- Ichiro Cano went 1-5 with a run.
- Rafhlmil Torres went 1-3 with a walk, double, and an RBI.
- Henry Hunter went 2-4.
- Iker Redona allowed a run in 2.0 innings with a walk and 4 strikeouts.
Top Pitch Velocity: Abraham Gaitan – 94.6 MPH (foul)
Top Exit Velocity: Arnaldo Lantigua – 108.5 MPH (groundout)
Furthest Hit Baseball: Sherman Johnson – 396 feet (home run)
9/3 Game Preview
| Team | Record | Time (ET) | Probable | Box Score | Listen | Watch |
| Louisville | 58-74 | 7:35pm | Emanuel | Here | Here | Here |
| Chattanooga | 57-71 | 7:00pm | TBA | Here | Here | Here |
| Dayton | 64-62 | 7:05pm | Ortiz | Here | Here | Here |
| Daytona | 57-70 | 6:30pm | TBA | Here | Here | Here |
| ACL Reds | 35-24 | Season | Complete | Here | N/A | N/A |
| DSL Reds | 36-19 | Season | Complete | Here | N/A | N/A |
| DSL Rojos | 24-31 | Season | Complete | Here | N/A | N/A |
“Justin Lebron hit his 8th home run since being drafted in Dayton…”
I’m pretty sure Lebron plays in Dayton, but was not drafted in Dayton.
That aside, it’s nice seeing the transition from the bbcor bat to the wood bat going so well in terms of average and power.
Taking a look at the SEC hitters taken in the 1st round this year who are playing in A ball (Hacopian, Helfrick, Reese, Jackson and Lebron) they are all hitting well.
It makes one wonder if SEC pitching is comparable to A ball pitching…
I still maintain that by and large SEC/ACC pitching is comparable to Low A pitching. While hitting well, they aren’t putting up the monster slash lines they did in college, though that in part is due to the bat change as well. In general, they are still hitting for less average and striking out more than they did in college though, so I still compare it to Low A.
The ball is juiced big time. Would love to know why or how lol. Runs are up 5.5 a game and almost 15% since last season.
That has to taken into account. Baseball American had a great article on it. Either way the kid is on fire. I’m excited to see him next season as he moves up the ladder
I wonder if it would make sense to move Lebron to Louisville after Dayton completes the season since the triple-A season finishes later so he could play some more games and just watch him out how he can perform a that level in a small sample size…
@RedsG, I don’t know if I’d do that, but what I might do differently after this sneak peak of Lebron is start him in AA next season. I was with everyone who had him returning to A+ to start the year, but I’ve changed my mind.
I know the league makes adjustments, and that the player adjusting to that is part of his maturation process, but dang he’s smoking the ball.
Personally, I want to see the K rate stay under 25% before moving him up to AA.
That’s always a good idea, but just like these other numbers we’re still talking about short sample size.
I don’t know enough about his hitting profile to know if he normally K’s a lot. I feel like Dayton might be too far down for him to start his development in earnest.
If we are mid 2027 season and his K rate is too high, then I’ll be more concerned.
I think where Lebron starts next April is on him. If he has an EDLC work ethic, I could see him having a great winter and starting 2027 in Chattanooga. But it would not be terrible to slow play it either. Look what happened when they rushed Alcantara this year.
I’ve been thinking about what is best for Lebron in 2027 and I’m in the undecided camp.
This long-winded comment is another way of saying I think it may be good to get Lebron out to the Arizona Fall League and see how he does against high level velocity, spin and possibly more advanced pitching. If nothing else, it can give the development people more information on how best to challenge him (let him fail) while playing him at a level where he can practice the skills he needs going forward.
Part of me really wants to see that projected Dayton infield we’ve been talking about, Doucette, Becker, Lebron, Lewis (and catcher of the day).
This is a personal want or need of mine. But it can also be an organizational one, too, as putting together a high achieving group helps via winning, culture, etc.
Then comes the individual developmental part, and that’s where I don’t have great clarity yet.
Coming into his pro debut, I felt it would be good to get Lebron into A or Hi A games to face better pitching and see the flaws in his swing and pitch recognition first hand, day to day, against challenging pitching. It’s a little counter-intuitive, but my thought was we need him challenged enough to see him fail.
One question, then, is what defines appropriate degrees of failure (where he doesn’t get wrecked in the process) as well as success. One answer might be those K and BB percentages, which are 25.8% K’s and just 6.7% BB. These are admittedly just surface numbers as well as within the sample of 89 plate appearances. His swing rates, contact percentages, chase rate, etc are all in equation.
It’s almost that I’d like to see him face enough pitching to carve him up yet allow him success while learning the pitch recognition and contact skills he struggled with in college.
Right now, he is showing (in my opinion) elite bat speed. I’d have no problem saying it’s a 70 grade tool. It is allowing him to homer at a high rate. So he is having a good deal of success. A fair amount of those HRs are coming on center cut pitches (“mistakes”) but that’s not a bad thing and is exactly what you want a prospect to do with them. You can think he isn’t being challenged enough, but he does have those failure rates and low success rates in K’s and BB’s. So it might be fair to say he is assigned to the best level for him here in 2026 and possibly 2027, at least the start. However, it may also be fair to say he isn’t being appropriately challenged by Hi A pitching and needs AA. I really don’t know — i was concerned enough after the draft I thought he’d need to debut in Daytona this year then go to work on his swing in the off season.
I just don’t want the Reds to do something hair-brained with Lebron. They tend to be very conservative, one-step-at-a-time in advancing players, yet still have the ability to accelerate things, ie Burns, Elly. And they have also made a few mind boggling decisions, such as their promotion(s) of Austin Hendricks when he’s been flailing.
They may undecided, too, and will wait until spring, after a fall off season on working on things, to decide whether its A+ or AA. In fact, the more i think about it, that may be what they do.
Also going into the equation is that if you start Lebron in AA, does that move Carlos Sanchez to 2B? If so, does Peyton Stovall go to 1B for the majority of the time? Who then plays SS in Dayton? We should probably keep Becker at 2B full time, that is where his possible future lies. Lewis has started to really take hold at 3B and that is his most likely future position. Ichiro Cano is a 3B only. Steele Hall isn’t ready for High A yet at 19. I suppose Alfredo Alcantara would have to be the answer for Dayton, but then who backs him up? Becker play there once a week? Give Cano a shot there?
I wouldn’t mind seeing
1 Sanchez 3B/SS
2 Lebron SS
3 Graham 1B/DH
4 Duno C/DH
5 Collier 3B/1B/DH
as 2027 AA opening day’s 1 – 5 batters.
I don’t know if Sanchez has the arm for 3B personally. I think he has trouble with accuracy from SS.
If the did move Lebron to AA, and moved Sanchez off SS, they could always get a place holder ie Acosta, Vargas, Carreras, to anchor the Dayton infield. But i think they’d just use Becker there and Alcantara at 2B, and delay Becker’s move off the position until he joins Lebron and/or Sanchez at AA.
Today’s BA article had some information on Lebron and some added underlying numbers which might mean he’s not ready (at this time — next spring may be different) for AA.
Sums up the dilemma well:
“Even while continuing to swing-and-miss too frequently (29% miss, 22.3% in-zone miss) and struggling against spin (44% miss rate vs. breaking balls), his ability to hit for power has been electric.”
I’ve probably seen about half of Lebron’s at bats in Dayton so far, and the swing and miss on breaking balls is definitely noticeable (though he has crushed a couple hangers as well) and is why I keep saying that he likely starts back in Dayton at the start of 2027.
Big, big year for Mr Collier. I’ve said it a thousand times, his type of power doesn’t grow on trees. And he’s still just 21 turning 22 (November). But he has to be considering a reinvention of his swing (and I’m assuming he’s gone to the mountaintop with this question already, or at least booked the travel). And that’s only part of it. He’s only walking 8.5% of the time, too. But … if he can get to Southern League average .244/.335/.410/.745, that power makes a difference and could at least get him to a corner infield utility job. Problem is, it’s a long way to league average from his .211/.288/.373/.662.
Justin Lebron has 8 HR in 89 PA. Kien Vu has played pretty much every day this year in 121 games and has 509 PA. Extrapolating Lebron out as an every day player his pace would put him at 46 HR over those same 509 PA if he maintained his current pace. I knew Lebron had good power, but I certainly didn’t expect this kind of power, dang, lol.
Nice start from Luke Hayden. He is going to be one of the guys they are counting on next year in the AA rotation in his age 24 year. It’d be nice if Hayden could develop as starter depth and maybe get a shot at the back end of a rotation. As it stands now, this is how next year is looking to me to start next year assuming generally good health:
AAA:
Julian Aguiar
Jose Acuna
Jonathan Harmon
Jared Lyons
Sam Benschoter
AA:
Luke Hayden
Kyle McCoy
Nestor Lorant
Javi Rivera
JP Ortiz
High A:
Edgar Colon
Stharlin Torres
Ovis Portes
Mason Morris
Ethan Norby
Low A:
Ryjeteri Merite
Ty Horn
Aaron Watson
Iker Redona
Duncan Marsten
Alejandro Rivera
Complex:
Calvin Proskey
Ysaias Escalona
Oneill Diaz
Reid Clague
Christian Lopez
Duke, we gave up on Cole Schoenwetter , Luke Holman and Ty Floyd?
Hurt, hurt, and hurt. Maybe they’ll work back. Maybe they won’t be ready. I don’t think we can count on any of them being ready to be a SP to start next year. Doesn’t mean they won’t or can’t, just that history says that we should be wary.
I think Jose Navarette needs to be added to your ACL list.
I think Justin Henschel and Braden Osbolt will be 100% back from TJS and need to pitch somewhere, probably Dayton.
Bryce Archie has been a disappointment but am hoping he takes a huge step forward this winter.
last years RoY spent less than two years in minors and moved quickly to AAA and then to Majors. and Baldwin is a catcher.
for those who have made projecting thur the minors almost a scientific study, what are the metrics or the intangables that LeBron or others would need to demonstrate to be deemed ready to be fast-tracked?
Lebron has a 6% BB% and a 25% K%. If he could get both of those into the teens then the Reds have something special.
Here are Baldwin’s BB% and K% by year in the minors:
2022
BB%: 17.1%/K%: 22.5%
2023
14.1%/20.5%
2024
13.1%/17.2%
Carter Graham ejected for doubting his strike 3 call. Not that it is reliable, but the GameDay box had it below the strike zone. They really should have challenges at all levels if it is going to be part of MLB.
The half with and half without approach would be dumb to continue with. It is probably here to stay so every player at every level should have the opportunity to learn and practice it. Imagine being stuck in a league where you don’t get to use it for a year (or more), then watching your competition have that same opportunity?
Maybe Graham saw Sal’s several ejections arguing balls and strikes at AA last year and thought it’d give him a leg up?
He’s got to learn the FIRE!
Carlos Jorge reportedly called up to the Reds today
Just curios, How far behind is Duno from Salas. Salas is younger and had worse stats than Duno offensively. Salas also ranked behind Duno in MLB pipeline. Why is he already up and Duno isn’t even in AAA?
Ethan Salas is considered to be a much better defensive catcher than Duno. And at catcher that skillset is far more important to just about every team in baseball.
Well, AFL isn’t too far off. Who will be there may be interesting. Thinking Lebron may make an apperance, but it would be early, next year could see. Thinking there may be a few repeats like Duno since he missed a little time to injury, probably Hayden.
Michael Trautwein sighting.