The Arizona Fall League is set to begin on Saturday. The Cincinnati Reds will be a part of the Peoria Javelinas this season. They will play the late game tomorrow. The rosters were announced just over two weeks ago, with the Reds having eight players slated to join Peoria. But there was a change that showed up since then. At least according to the official roster, outfielder Jay Allen II is no longer on the Javelinas roster and he’s been replaced by outfielder Yerlin Confidan.
The 23-year-old outfielder split his season between Dayton and Chattanooga. Confidan hit .251/.339/.382 with the Dragons in 72 games. He was then moved up to Double-A to join the Lookouts. He hit better in his 54 games at the higher level, posting a .260/.322/.438 line. His power was up, as was his average, but his walk rate did drop and his strikeout rate did go up.
Confidan has raw power that stacks up with almost anyone in the farm system. He can put up very high end exit velocities. But he hasn’t been able to translate that raw power to games with consistency. Defensively he’s improved over the years, but he is still likely a below-average (but playable) corner outfielder. He will be Rule 5 draft eligible this offseason is he is left off of the 40-man roster.
Jay Allen II had his best offensive season at any level where he spent at least 20 games when he hit .280/.374/.483 in 90 games this summer with Double-A Chattanooga. He was called up to join Louisville in mid-August and in the final four weeks struggled to get his bat going, hitting just .211/.318/.250 in 23 games for the Bats.
The outfielder is Rule 5 draft eligible this offseason if he is left off of the 40-man roster. It will be interesting to see how the club handles that situation. Allen II is a very good defensive center fielder. That’s been the case for his entire career. But he’s struggled to do much hitter in his career until this season in Double-A. But we also know that the minor league baseball this year was not normal and that it was flying further than it has in past seasons and players, teams, and leagues at the Double-A level and lower (Triple-A uses the MLB baseball, which was normal this year for the most part) all saw big spikes in hitting. And in the first year of the new ballpark in Chattanooga, it played quite hitter friendly compared to the league as a whole.
That’s going to be a thing to keep an eye on next season, too. If the baseball situation gets figured out and it’s back to normal next year, how do the numbers look for a lot of guys who may have benefited from getting an extra 5-10 feet on fly balls in 2026?
Allen’s strikeout % at AA was 21.2 this year, versus 24.5 in 2025, and his average went from .227 to .280, so it just wasn’t the baseball. He did actually improve.
Having said that, I don’t really think that another team will select him in the Rule 5 draft, which MLB may not even have this year. His SO% jumped to 35.2 in AAA, albeit in only 88 PAs, and his OPS was only .568.
Allen was a recruited D1 quarterback in high school, and likely a little green as a baseball player when drafted, so he has a right to be a late bloomer. And he may well not ever make it. 2027 will be his make-or-break year, and he needs to play in AAA, which he won’t be able to do if he is put on the 40-man and a lockout ensues.
As to Allen’s not playing in the Arizona Fall League, that could be for any number of reasons. He may have a lingering injury, or he may have a family medical situation. And maybe the Reds have already decided what to do with Allen for 2027, and wanted to take a closer look at Confidan, who is almost exactly the same age and who had a pretty good run in 211 PAs at Chattanooga.
The strikeout rate did improve. The average improved but that could also have been entirely related to the baseball. We don’t really know. What we do know is that much like the college hitting stats from 2024, we should be suspicious and question pretty much all output from the year.
Well, that’s too bad for Jay Allen II. It seemed like a nice opportunity for him. While not as elite as Carlos Jorge out there in CF, i do enjoy watching him go get the ball, as well.
I like following Confidan. When he swats a homer, it can go a long way. He might like the AZ weather for that reason.
Hard to see either as Rule 5 adds this year. But then it’s hard to see any Rule 5 adds this year.
I mean there’s no way they leave Carter Graham unprotected right?
Well, there’s Graham, yeah. When I think of it, he actually fits a certain profile of a guy who’d get drafted — the older prospect who’d fill a low cost bench job. I often think of Rule 5 draft selections as high risk/high gain profiles but it’s probably every bit as true as higher floor/lower ceiling guys. Even then, in another year with more depth, we might not be sweating it too much leaving him unprotected.
What would be the reason for this move? Is Allen kind of hurt? or just a last minute change of plans?
I think the Reds wouldn’t be worry about protecting Allen and Confidan to ML rule 5…But I’m not sure if Confidan could be picked up in the minor league rule 5 version if he stays in Double-A roster…
It could be a lot of things, but I can’t imagine that Confidan would be MiLB rule 5 eligible. That would mean that not only did the team not think he was deserving of a 40-man roster spot (which seems like reasonable people could agree/disagree on). But I would find it hard to believe that he would also not be included on the Triple-A roster (which in terms of him being MiLB rule 5 eligible doesn’t mean he actually has to be playing in Triple-A next year) that of all Rule 5 eligible players he would not be one of the next 30-something players they would protect.
Don’t forget about the time that the Reds sent Jayvien Sandridge to the AFL and then let him leave as a free agent the next month. Not everything the Reds do makes sense, especially when it comes to the AFL.
In theory it makes sense. They wanted one last look at him to decide if they wanted to keep him around. In theory they got that look and decided he wasn’t someone they felt was worthy of a 40-man roster spot and didn’t add him, thus allowing him to become a free agent.