What does the future hold for RHP Dan Langfield?

When Dan Langfield finally returned in May of 2014 after missing all of the 2013 season, it was a very impressive return. He topped out at 97 MPH, pitching in relief and just dominated the opposing hitters. Things went smoothly for Langfield for a bit of time after that, but he would have some ups-and-downs over the rest of the season.

There were plenty of good things. He made nine starts out of his 21 appearances, showing that he can still handle more than just a relief role in terms of his stamina. The right hander had 81 strikeouts in 60.1 innings pitched. From a stuff standpoint, he really stood out at times.

There were some not-so-good things too. He walked 43 batters in 60.1 innings pitched, a rate that must come down in the future. He was a very big fly ball pitcher, which isn’t something that can’t be overcome, but he had the second lowest groundball rate of all pitchers in the system during 2014.

As noted above, Langfield had time as both a starter and a reliever. Let’s take a quick look at his splits:

I chose to look at these stats first for a reason. To me, they are the most important. How often do you miss bats and how often do you miss the strikezone? Pitchers walks and strikeout rates generally tell us how successful they will be (along with home run rate – Langfield had the same rate for each). As a reliever Langfield walked significantly less hitters and struck out significantly more (on a rate status). His strikeout rate as a starter was very, very high. On the flip side, his walk rate as a starter was incredibly high. As a reliever his walk rate was quite high and it looks small compared to what he did as a starter in terms of walks.

Now let’s take a look at some different numbers from his time as a starter and a reliever:

Here we see a different story than the one above. His ERA and hit rate was much lower as a starter than as a reliever despite guys making more contact, hitting homers at the same rate and walking guys at much more frequently. The big difference is that his batting average on balls in play was significantly lower as a starter than it was as a reliever.

What role is best for Dan Langfield moving forward?

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Some pitchers have differences in their batted ball types depending on whether they are starting or reliever. Let’s see if that works in Langfield’s case, or at least if it did for 2014:

The groundball rates were essentially the same, but the distribution of the other three types was a little bit different. Less fly balls, more line drives and more pop ups as a reliever. What really stands out though, in both, is his pop up rate. It’s believed that pitchers have some control over the rate of pop ups they generate and Langfield is well above-average here (8% if the average). While there was some differences in the batted ball types, it wasn’t much of note.

Scouting Report

This is directly from the 2015 Prospect Guide for Langfield.

After a strong professional debut in the 2012 season, right hander Dan Langfield missed the entire 2013 season with a shoulder injury. He would miss the first month of the 2014 season still recovering from that injury before returning to the mound in early May. He would initially work out of the bullpen in stints lasting more than an inning before eventually moving into the rotation later in the season. Langfield throws his fastball in the 92-94 MPH range and topped out at 97 MPH in relief. With a high ¾ arm angle that is almost over-the-top he throws on a downhill plane. Despite that plane though he was a flyball pitcher in 2014. His main secondary offering is a 12-6 breaking curveball that is an above-average pitch right now and flashes itself as a plus pitch. On occasion it will flatten out, but more often than not it’s a put-away pitch. As a reliever those are the two pitches that he relies on. When he works as a starter he also uses a change up in the low 80’s that is an average offering, but it’s a third pitch for him to mix in every so often more than one he relies on often. The largest area of concern for Langfield is his spotty control. He walked 16% of the batters he faced in 2014, a number that must come down to remain a starting pitcher. As a reliever his walk rate was stronger than as a starter, though it still needs to be lowered. There’s plenty of upside with the right hander, though with his control problems he may profile best as a reliever where he can dial up the velocity and rely on his curveball to pitch out of the back end of a bullpen.

The Reds may look at Langfield as a starter in 2015, as it was their plan during 2014, but plans do change at times. He will be 24-years-old at the start of the season and have limited experience in Low-A. With his control problems throughout his history, his age and the depth that the Reds have at starting pitching it wouldn’t surprise me to see the team try and put him in the bullpen and fast track his arm through the system. As a reliever, if he can get the walks down a little bit, he’s got the stuff that can dominate and he could move quickly.

If he’s put into the rotation somewhere, he’s going to take time to move up through the system, even if he fixes the control problems he’s shown. While 24 isn’t old, given his experience you’d have to think that Langfield as a starter, is at best two years away given how many other guys he would have to pass up along the way, that would put his ETA at age 26 for him. That’s something that seems like a bit of a stretch when his stuff plays well out of the bullpen and he’s had the control problems that he has. There’s an outside shot that he sticks in the rotation, but the safe bet would be to have him in the bullpen moving forward and pushing him quickly as long as the walk rate doesn’t get out of control.

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