Today is the third part in a series that we are running where we look at a player that may currently be overlooked, but is someone you shouldn’t be sleeping on for the 2015 season. In part one we looked at outfielder Kevin Garcia. Last week we looked at reliever Drew Hayes. This time we will look at third baseman Tanner Rahier.
The Reds selected Tanner Rahier in the second round of the 2012 draft, which makes his inclusion a little bit strange given that he is just entering his age 21 season, but he’s never hit over .238 and never posted an on-base percentage of .300 in three seasons. The 2014 season was easily the best of his career and he hit .238/.298/.356 during the season.
While the overall line leaves plenty to be desired, there’s some good in there as well. From the start of the season through the first week of July, over 291 plate appearances, Rahier was hitting .294/.341/.434 for Dayton. From that point forward he hit .140/.226/.223 while watching his strikeout rate go from 16% to 29%, nearly double the rate.
The explanation for the huge drop off in production can be partially explained through the stats. In his first half he saw his batting average on balls in play at .332. That rate falls in line with one that is within reason of expectation. In the second half that number dropped to .183. That rate simply isn’t something that should be expected to happen. The league average is just over .300 in the Midwest League. Normalizing that goes a bit of the way to explain the second half struggles.
On the other side of that though was the nearly doubling of his strikeout rate and his power disappearing over the second half. There could be a reason to explain both of those as well.
Scouting Report
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As a second round pick, Rahier clearly has the tools to play. He’s got slightly above-average power potential with 15-20 home runs not being out of the question for him in the future. He flashed some of that power potential in the first half of the season before falling apart in the second half.
For the most part of his career he’s been a good contact hitter, but it’s come with an aggressive approach in the past. He toned things down in 2014 with a focus on being a bit more patient and it did work in the first half.
On the defensive side of the ball is where Rahier has shined since signing. He’s an above-average defender with a good glove and a strong arm. The third baseman can make all of the plays.
Those are the good sides of things. Now to the concerns with Rahier. The second half of 2014 was an utter disaster. The numbers speak for themselves, but let’s explore a little deeper.
Rahier just looked slower. His bat speed was dramatically slower down the stretch and it directly led to the lowered power and the big increase in strikeouts. He simply didn’t have the bat speed needed to hit a good fastball down the stretch. He battled some hand injuries throughout the season, but that alone doesn’t explain it because he was also moving slower in the field and on the bases.
He just looked worn down in the second half of the year. He has the tools to perform like he did in the first half over the long haul, but he will need to stay in better shape over the course of the entire season to get the most out of those tools and production.
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