Coming into the 2015 season Daniel Wright ranked 24th on my Cincinnati Reds Top 25 Prospects List. When the midseason update came around the 24-year-old right hander fell just outside of the Top 25 after having a rough first half of the season.
From the start of the season through May 24th, Wright posted a 6.34 ERA in 44.0 innings. From a peripheral standpoint, he actually had strong rates. He only allowed one home run, walked just 15 batters and had 42 strikeouts. He was suffering from a very high batting average on balls in play, which was sitting at .400. In the 2014 season his BABIP was .287, which is in the range of what you would expect.
Last night the right hander tossed seven shutout innings for Pensacola, allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out six batters. That start continued a strong run that Wright had been on since June 5th. In the six starts over that time he has posted a 3.41 ERA in 37.0 innings with just eight walks and he’s struck out 35 batters while allowing three home runs.
Let’s take a quick look at the two different stretches for Wright this season:
| From | IP | ERA | H | HR | BB | K | BABIP |
| April – May 24 | 44.0 | 6.34 | 55 | 1 | 15 | 42 | .400 |
| June 5 – July 2 | 37.0 | 3.41 | 29 | 3 | 8 | 35 | .271 |
His walk rate dropped from good to a very strong rate, the strikeout rate has stayed the same and his home run rate has actually gone up. The big difference has been in the BABIP, which was unsustainably high in the first stretch and at a sustainable range in the second stretch.
The rough start to the season for Wright was pinned mostly on an unsustainable rate of balls put in play turning into hits and as the season has gone forward and he’s added more innings and opportunities that rate has continued to drop. For the season, his BABIP is still sitting at .340 and it should continue to drop down to a rate closer to .300. With his ERA sitting at 5.00 on the season, the early part of the year is still pulling down the overall numbers, but if he can stay the course through the season then his ERA should continue to drop as things continue to normalize.