Is Reds prospect Jesse Winker the next Joey Votto?

Some days you wake up and you aren’t quite sure what you are going to write about and have to sit around thinking of things. Other days the ideas are handed to you. Today was one of those days. When I opened up Tweetdeck this morning, I had this waiting for me:

@dougdirt24 Interested to see #’s since June compared to Votto’s #’s in AA. What he did last night 1-2, 2 walks, Run, RBI, very Vottoish

— Paul Erskine (@Ersky44) August 27, 2015

It’s an interesting thought. In fact, I made a comparison to Joey Votto for Jesse Winker back in May of 2013. Paul was curious about the numbers though, so let’s take a look at what they show us.

Obviously we run into several issues here. First and foremost is the sample size. Joey Votto did that for an entire season, while Winker had plenty of struggles in April and May and that time has been cut off of the sample. Second is the age. Winker is a year younger than Votto was at the same time. Third is the park. Winker plays in a ballpark that crushes power to right field, while Votto was playing in Chattanooga. While I don’t have the data for the 2006 season in Chattanooga, the stadium still exists and over the past few seasons in which I do have the data, it boosts power to all parts of the field, with power to right field being boosted the most.

With all of that said, I still think that Votto’s power played out a little bit better. 46 doubles and 22 home runs is a whole lot of extra-base power. If we were to essentially double the totals for Winker we’d get nearly the same total plate appearances, but see 26 doubles and 22 home runs. While Pensacola is hurting his power output, it’s not hurting it by 20 doubles – though it probably has cost him a few extra home runs.

Going back to the article I wrote in May of 2013 that compared the two players, the comparison was based around this premise: Advanced plate approach, good, but not elite-level power and the ability to use the entire field. In the sample size above, we can see that Jesse Winker is walking at a slightly better rate than Joey Votto was as the same level and he’s striking out at a clip that’s actually a decent amount lower than Votto was. We know that Joey Votto can use the entire field and we’ve seen that Winker has done the same thing in the past. It has been more of the same in 2015 as Winker has gone to left field 19% of the time and to both center and left 17% of the time.

So, the question that is begging to be asked is: Is Jesse Winker the next Joey Votto?

No, he probably isn’t. Joey Votto is one of the best hitters that has been in baseball since he entered the league. Votto is a career .310/.421/.534 hitter and his .955 OPS trails only Miguel Cabrera since entering the league (minimum 1500 PA).

At the same level, Jesse Winker and Joey Votto are similar players on paper. That certainly bodes well for the future for the outfielder, especially since he’s been able to do what he’s done at the age in which he’s done it.

When looking at the two players on the scouting side of things though, especially comparing to what Joey Votto has become since 2006 when he was in Double-A, there are some differences between the two players at the plate. Joey Votto seemed to have an ounce more power at the time and I think that he’s still got a tad more power than Winker is eventually going to hit for. It’s more extra doubles power than extra home runs power, but it’s a difference.

In terms of their plate approach, the two are similar, but different. Both guys are willing to work the count to get their pitch and if they don’t, both are very willing to take a walk. We can see that in both the numbers and by watching them play. But watching them play is where we can also see the difference in their approach. Joey Votto is often criticized by walking too much by some in the media. That’s a bit of a crazy notion to me, saying that a guy is doing too much of a good thing, but I believe that they are actually trying to say that Joey Votto should be more aggressive on swinging at strikes. And on that note, I can agree with them slightly.  He currently swings at 63.4% of the pitches thrown inside the strikezone, which is the 37th lowest in baseball out of 154 qualified hitters. Several very good hitters swing less often than that, including Mike Trout, Jose Bautista, Paul Goldschmidt and Troy Tulowitzki. Not being overly aggressive on strikes isn’t necessarily a bad thing as very good hitters do take strikes.

Watching Jesse Winker play every day, or close to it, thanks to MiLB.tv over the past few years, one thing has stood out. If he sees a good pitch, he’s going to swing at it whether it’s early in the count or not. Like Votto, he’s going to take the pitch on the edge of the zone, but if there is a pitch a little more over the plate, he’s not going to take the pitch simply to work the count. The numbers may suggest the two have a similar approach overall, and in the grand scheme of things, they do, but watching the two of them on a consistent basis you can see that while similar, they are also different.

The approach for Votto has led to his walk rate jumping to 19% over the last four season, a 50% jump from where he was in Double-A. That’s not something we should expect out of Winker, or anyone really. Joey Votto is a guy who has one of the best understandings of the strikezone that baseball has seen in a long time. Despite what Marty Brennamen says, Joey Votto is an elite baseball player and part of that is because of his understanding of the strikezone.

At just 21-years-old, Jesse Winker has comparable numbers to those of what Joey Votto had, but he’s probably not going to develop into the next Joey Votto. That’s more about just how incredibly good that Joey Votto is than anything Jesse Winker isn’t. But, Winker certainly could develop into a hitter that is “Joey Votto-lite”, which would still make him an outstanding hitter. In the future it wouldn’t surprise me to see Winker hit .300/.400/.500 at the big league level to go with nearly as many walks as strikeouts and 25-30 home runs at his peak.