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The Cincinnati Reds lost starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake to trades as they approached free agency. They also got 110 starts from rookies in the 2015 season. Moving forward, it would seem that three spots in the rotation would be locked up by Homer Bailey, Anthony DeSclafani and Raisel Iglesias. That leaves two spots in the rotation up for grabs from a slew of guys with big league experience, including Michael Lorenzen, Keyvius Sampson and Brandon Finnegan to go along with a whole bunch of prospects that we will be looking at today.
The Louisville Bats had twenty different pitchers make at least one start for them in the 2015 season, though two of those starters were on rehab assignments from the Reds. Eight of those players are no longer with the organization and a few more exhausted their rookie eligibility and are no longer considered prospects at this point.
Robert Stephenson made 11 starts for the Bats after beginning his season in Double-A Pensacola. His transition to Triple-A went much better than his initial transition to Double-A did, posting a 4.04 ERA in 55.2 innings with 27 walks and 51 strikeouts after going on a 10 game run from May 6th through the end of June with the Blue Wahoos where he posted a 2.36 ERA in 61.0 innings. A late season injury cost him a few starts and when he returned he struggled over the final three starts of the season. The year was a step forward for the teams top prospect, but it did come with some concerns. His control improved, but overall he still showed a walk rate much higher than you’d like to see and one that will need to improve if he’s going to have big league success as a starter.
John Lamb was a Kansas City Royal to begin the season, but arrived in the Reds organization with a late July trade. He made 17 starts with the Royals Triple-A affiliate where he posted a 2.67 ERA in 94.1 innings. The lefty joined the Bats rotation and made just three starts, tossing 17.0 innings with a 2.65 ERA before spending the rest of his season with the big league club where he showed plenty of flashes of success, but also saw some struggles. On the bright side, he had 58 strikeouts and just 19 walks in 49.2 innings, but he also allowed eight home runs and posted a 5.80 ERA.
Jon Moscot got out to a strong start with the Louisville Bats, making nine starts and posting a 3.15 ERA in 54.1 innings. That was good enough to get him the call to the big leagues where he would make three starts. His first start was rough, but he followed that up with a quality start against the Phillies. In his third start he would last just 0.2 innings as he injured his non-throwing shoulder making a tag in a rundown against the Tigers. It would cost him the rest of the season, missing the final three-and-a-half months and undergoing surgery.
Right hander Josh Smith would spend time in Pensacola and Louisville (and one start in Dayton – just to give him the work in between starts as he got ready for his big league debut). He would make 25 appearances in the minors on the season, posting a 3.45 ERA between the three stops in 143.1 innings with just 33 walks and 123 strikeouts. He would make nine appearances with the big league club and he would struggle mightily, posting a 6.89 ERA in 32.2 innings as he struggled with his control, walking 21 batters.
Down in Pensacola there were several guys who got a decent amount of action in the rotation. Daniel Wright had an up-and-down season. In his first nine starts of the season he posted a 6.34 ERA. In his next 10 starts he would post a 2.94 ERA in 64.1 innings pitched, but would regress in his final eight starts of the season as he posted a 5.01 ERA in 46.2 innings. Overall he would post a 4.53 ERA in 155.0 innings. He posted good peripherals, walking just 47 batters with 130 strikeouts and allowing just six home runs on the season, but his ERA was quite a bit higher than those rates would suggest.
Cody Reed, like John Lamb, began his season in the Kansas City Royals organization. His season began in Advanced-A, but he moved up to Double-A before being traded to the Reds in July. He joined the Pensacola rotation where he made eight starts, almost all of which were dominant. The left handed starter posted a 2.41 ERA between his three stops over 145.2 innings with just seven home runs allowed, 42 walks and 144 strikeouts. After not being in the organization to begin the season, he’s now one of the best pitching prospects on the farm.
After a strong run in 19 games with the Daytona Tortugas where he posted a 3.46 ERA in 104.0 innings, Sal Romano was pomoted to Double-A Pensacola. His first game with the Blue Wahoos was out to a great start as he threw 2.0 perfect innings with two strikeouts, but the game was suspended by rain before the next inning. From there, everything was downhill. In seven starts the big right hander posted a 10.96 ERA as he struggled with his control, walking 12 batters with just nine strikeouts. The 21-year-old was just added to the 40-man roster a few weeks ago.
The rotation in Daytona was full of top prospects. Sal Romano was there for a large part of the season. He was joined by another hard thrower, left hander Amir Garrett. The former college basketball player put together what was arguably the best season of any minor leaguer in the organization. The 23-year-old posted a 2.44 ERA in 140.1 innings, allowing just four home runs, walking 55 batters and striking out 133. He was even better in the playoffs for the Tortugas. Garrett took steps forward and seemed to establish himself as a Top 100 prospect in baseball.
Nick Travieso also spent his entire season in the Florida State League pitching for Daytona. He would miss nearly seven weeks after being hit by a comebacker in the wrist. Overall, the right hander had a 2.70 ERA in 93.1 innings pitched with 30 walks and 76 strikeouts. His performance was a bit stronger before returning from the injury, but was solid in six starts after returning. With the missed time the Reds sent him to the Arizona Fall League where he was dominant, posting a 2.05 ERA in 22.0 innings with just three walks and with 20 strikeouts.
Jackson Stephens made 26 starts with Daytona. The 21-year-old posted a 2.97 ERA in 145.1 innings. He had some early struggles, but rebounded well from May through the end of the season. The right hander posted a career best walk rate, walking just 30 batters in 145.1 innings. That also came with a career low in strikeout rate as he had just 97 strikeouts. His 145.1 innings were more than double his previous career high, which came in 2014 with 67.0 innings for Dayton.
Another trade brought in Keury Mella from the Giants organization in late July. He made 16 starts in the California League where he posted a 3.31 ERA in 81.2 innings with San Jose before he arrived in the Cincinnati organization. The Reds assigned him to the Daytona rotation where he would make four starts, posting a 2.95 ERA in 21.1 innings, but also walking 15 batters with 23 strikeouts. In total he had a 3.23 ERA over 103.0 innings with 41 walks and 106 strikeouts. His season was cut short in the final two weeks with shoulder stiffness, but outside of that, he put together a strong campaign with a career high in innings and strikeouts.
Down in Dayton there were three guys who spent their entire seasons in the Dragons rotation. Wyatt Strahan made 28 starts and posted a 2.79 ERA that covered 164.1 innings, best in the organization. The 22-year-old kept his ERA below 3.50 in every month of the season, showing consistency throughout the year, though his second half was stronger than his first.
Tejay Antone joined Strahan in the rotation from the start to the end of the year. He made 26 starts for the Dragons and posted a 2.91 ERA over 158.0 innings. He allowed just two home runs on the season, walked 33 batters and had 101 strikeouts. His walk rate was among the best in the organization, but he struggled to miss bats, particularly after May ended (19.9% strikeout rate before June – just 12.9% from June through the end of the season).
Right hander Tyler Mahle also spend the entire season with Dayton. The 20-year-old made 27 starts and posted a 2.43 ERA in 152.0 innings. He would show outstanding control, walking just 25 batters. He also showed a good ability to miss bats, striking out 135 as he took home league pitcher of the year honors. Like Strahan, Mahle would show consistency throughout the year, with June behind the month he posted his highest ERA, coming in at 3.33. He would jump up the prospect rankings to #13 within the organization after the season.
Mark Armstrong began the year with Dayton as well. The 20-year-old got out to a strong start, posting a 2.86 ERA through June 1st with 14 walks and 42 strikeouts in 56.2 innings. He began to experience some elbow discomfort and missed four weeks before returning. He made two starts, but left the second start after three innings and didn’t return as he would eventually undergo Tommy John surgery.
Ty Boyles began the year in the Billings Mustangs rotation, but the 19-year-old was promoted to Dayton after making 10 starts with a 2.17 ERA in 58.0 innings in the Pioneer League with 17 walks and 48 strikeouts. In four additional starts with Dayton the left hander struggled, posting an 8.62 ERA in 15.2 innings with six walks and nine strikeouts.
Tanner Rainey, the 2nd round pick from the 2015 draft, made 15 starts for the Billings Mustangs and posted a 4.27 ERA over the course of 59.0 innings. He allowed just two home runs in the hitter friendly league, walked 28 batters and had 57 strikeouts.
Jose Lopez, coming off of Tommy John surgery, made 14 starts and one relief appearance for the Mustangs. The right hander posted a 3.16 ERA with 19 walks and 67 strikeouts. His second half was much better than his first, as he dominated over his final eight starts of the season with a 2.13 ERA in 38.0 innings with just seven walks and he struck out 50 batters.
Jacob Constante spent his entire season with the Mustangs as well. The left hander had a 3.56 ERA in 68.1 innings pitched. Like Jose Lopez, he put together a strong second half of the season. Constante posted a 1.06 ERA in his final 34.0 innings with 14 walks and 32 strikeouts all while not allowing a home run. The lefty continued to show high groundball rates, but his walk rate will need to improve moving forward.
In the Arizona League there were three pitchers who spent more time starting than relieving. 22-year-old Manuel Aybar posted a 4.86 ERA over 33.1 innings (eight starts, five relief appearances) with 19 walks and 34 strikeouts. His walk rate was quite high, but his strikeout rate was also high. 2015 2nd rounder Antonio Santillan made seven starts and one relief appearance. He gave up all 11 earned runs in two appearances as he posted a 5.03 ERA in 19.2 innings with 11 walks and 19 strikeouts. 17-year-old Ian Kahaloa, the Reds 5th rounder in 2015, would make six starts and two relief appearances with a 2.25 ERA. He would throw 24.0 innings with just six walks and he had 31 strikeouts.
Overall Thoughts
The Reds have very impressive starting pitching depth. The team has four starters who are possible Top 100 prospects in all of baseball with lefties Amir Garrett and Cody Reed joining right handers Robert Stephenson and Nick Travieso. Behind those four are more than a few other high-upside arms. Mixed in with the high-upside arms are several safe arms as well. When you get down to the rookie levels there are more than a few upside guys just getting their careers started as well. This, as you likely expected coming into the article, is the deepest position that the Reds have.
Grade: A
Tim Adleman, Wandy Peralta, Barrett Astin, Nick Routt, Seth Varner, Jake Paulson and Jonathon Crawford will all be discussed next week with the relief pitchers.
Top Pitching Tools
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| Player | |
| Fastball | Robert Stephenson |
| Change Up | Robert Stephenson |
| Slider | Amir Garrett |
| Curveball | Robert Stephenson |
| Control | Tyler Mahle |
There are several categories where there could be several different options. The best fastball could go to several players. Sal Romano had the best top end velocity this season, at times sitting 96-98 MPH with the pitch. I chose to go to Robert Stephenson here, as his fastball that worked 93-95 had strong movement and just got by hitters. Going with the fastball of Amir Garrett could have been an option as well as the lefty topped out at 98 MPH this season. The best slider and curveball could probably go a few different ways as well.
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