If the title of this article sounds familiar, it’s because at the same time last year we were asking similar questions and I wrote about it then as well. Jesse Winker, at this point last season, was hitting .229/.343/.314 for the Pensacola Blue Wahoos with five doubles, a triple and two home runs. This season he’s hitting .269/.374/.338 for the Louisville Bats with five doubles, no triples and two home runs.
The numbers are remarkably similar. Even his plate discipline numbers are similar. His walk rate in 2015 at this point was 13.3% and it’s sitting at 14.7% this season His strikeout rate was 14.9% last year and it’s now at 12.6%. Both rates are a little bit stronger in 2016, but are very similar. Pretty much across the board, things are similar. The big difference is that his average is 40 points higher than it was at this point last season, which has carried with it the boost in on-base percentage and a slightly higher slugging percentage.
In the 2015 season when the calendar flipped to June, things changed for Jesse Winker. He played in 81 games the rest of the season and he would hit .310/.414/.497 with 19 doubles, a triple and 11 home runs and put together an overall strong season despite the slow start. And that came in a ballpark that doesn’t help left handed hitters in the slightest.
This season he’s playing in Triple-A with the Louisville Bats and it’s another ballpark that isn’t exactly built for left handed hitters. It’s 340 feet down the right field line, so it’s not exactly the best place to hit home runs – they don’t come cheap. However, it’s probably not the reason that Winker hasn’t hit for much power thus far in 2016.
The reason that the outfielder struggled to hit for power to start the 2015 season is likely the same reason that he’s struggled to hit for power to begin the 2016 season. He’s struggling to elevate the baseball. In April of 2015 his groundball rate was 63%. That was followed up by a 62% groundball rate in May. The rest of the season in 2015 saw his groundball rate between 39% and 45% and as noted above, the power came back along with that.
This season the groundball rates haven’t been quite as high. In April his groundball rate was at 50%, and in May it’s at 54%. Both of those rates are far higher than his career rate of 43%, and unsurprisingly, it’s led to somewhat of a power outage. Over the last two seasons we can look back at his isolated power rates (SLG-AVG, which gives us an idea of just how much extra-base power a player is showing) and his groundball rates and there’s a strong correlation. The three lowest isolated power months are also the three highest groundball rate months he’s had. His three highest isolated power months are also his lowest groundball rate months.
When I spoke with Jesse Winker last August while I was in Pensacola I brought up the turn around, and noted that he had hit a bunch of grounders early in the season, but his fly ball rate really picked up. He said that he adjusted his pitch selection and it really helped turn things around. Perhaps that’s an adjustment that he needs to make once again. He clearly understands the strikezone well, which shows up well in his walk and strikeout numbers, so it should be an easier thing for him to adjust in his approach than perhaps others who don’t have quite the same pitch recognition skillset that he does have.
Getting the ball in the air more is going to be one of the keys for the power coming back for Winker. It’s more likely a matter of when, not if, as we’ve seen him show plenty of power in the past. It’s in there, not something that is still waiting to be developed. An adjustment needs to be made, but he’s shown that ability to alter things and improve in this area before. Keep an eye on his fly ball rates moving forward – if and when he starts elevating the ball more, look for the power to start showing up.