Cincinnati Reds #2 Prospect: OF Jesse Winker

The 2016 season began well for Jesse Winker. The outfielder started, and would ultimately finish the year with the Triple-A Louisville Bats. He would start out April by going 11-31 (.355) in the first eight games, but then went into a mini-slump for the next week that included three 0-fer games. While the hits didn’t show up, he did draw five walks in that span without a strikeout. Winker would finish out the month in a strong way, going 7-20 (.350) with two doubles and two home runs in the final five games to finish up with a .315/.400/.438 line.

May was a bit of a struggle for the outfielder. In the first 10 days he would hit .313 and draw nine walks with just three strikeouts, but his one extra-base hit limited his slugging to just .344 in that span. It was the next 10 days that really hurt the production in May as Winker went on to hit just .097 (3-31). Things would turn around a bit in the final seven games of the month, hitting .286 with two doubles, but the middle stretch had done the damage and he finished with a .231/.349/.264 line. The on-base percentage was strong as he walked more times than he struck out, but the .264 slugging wasn’t good.

June was looking like it was going to be a part of a big turnaround for Jesse Winker. He started the month with a 9-game hitting streak that saw him hit .382 with four doubles and five walks. However, in the 10th game of the month he left the game after 4th inning and just one at-bat. The 22-year-old would miss the next four weeks before a short rehab stint in July got him back on the field.

With the Arizona League Reds on rehab Winker was a man among boys, hitting .462/.533/.923 with two home runs in four games before returning to Louisville to join the Bats on the 14th. After an 0-4 to start his road back he ran off a 9-game hitting streak that included five doubles and more walks (3) than strikeouts (2). The final week of the month didn’t go nearly as well though, finishing just 4-25 (.160). In the two-and-a-half weeks with Louisville he hit .286/.357/.365 for July.

The stretch to end the season in August and September was more of the same from Jesse Winker. In 142 plate appearances he hit for a good average, going 40-118 (.339) and he walked more often than he struck out (21 walks, 20 strikeouts). Like much of the rest of the season, he struggled to find extra-base hits as he slugged just .424 with seven doubles and a home run – his first since the final week of April (just over 300 plate appearances in between home runs – not counting the time in Arizona).

There were some good takeaways from the season. He was able to hit for a good average, .303 on the season and he walked just as often as he struck out, 59 times. He also posted his lowest strikeout rate of his career (13.1%).  The downside was that he suffered a wrist injury for the second time in his career and it appeared to lead to problems hitting for power. That usually follows a wrist injury for a few months, so it’s not much of a surprise, but finishing with an isolated power of just .081 is in the Billy Hamilton category of power and something you’d not expect from a corner outfielder.

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Jesse Winker Scouting Report

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Hitting | This is Jesse Winker’s best tool. He’s able to use the entire field, and prior to this year, has shown power to all fields. His approach in 2016 was to go the other way more as he was pitched outside a bit more frequently.

Power | Two wrist injuries in the past few seasons has put the power output for Jesse Winker in the crosshairs for some. His output in 2016 with Louisville simply isn’t enough for a corner outfielder in the long run. The good news is that he projects to hit for significantly more power than he showed in the 2016 season. He’s going to need to pull the ball more than he did in 2016, but a healthy wrist will go a long way towards him finding 15-20 home runs in the near-term future.

Running | He’s never going to be a stolen base threat, and he’s not likely to get any faster. He’s a below-average runner both now and in the future.

Arm | While his arm has improved over the years, it’s still fringe-average at best. While he’s played some in right field over the course of his minor league career, his arm profiles best in left field.

Fielding | Much like his arm, he’s certainly improved his defense over the years. Still, his combination of speed and arm make him a prototypical left fielder on the defensive spectrum.

Jesse Winker is a bat-first player and one that’s going to bring all of his value with it. There’s not going to be any value provided on the bases or in the field because he lacks the speed and defensive position to do that. He projects to hit for a good average and he understands the strikezone very well, giving him a chance to be a high on-base percentage guy as well. Just how much power he hits for will determine whether or not he’s just an average-regular or an above-average player. If the power develops fully, he’s got a chance to be an .850+ OPS hitter that can be a quality #2-#5 hitter depending on the lineup. If his power doesn’t quite get there he should still hit for a good average and get on base at a decent rate, but profiles more as a #2 hitter than a guy who you could hit in the middle of the order. I’m a believer that eventually the power’s going to show up and he’s going to hit 20 homers, perhaps more at his peak – especially if he stays in Great American Ballpark.

Spray Chart

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