When the Cincinnati Reds traded Adam Duvall to the Atlanta Braves they got, what felt like at the time, an absolute steal of talent in return. It wasn’t so much because they landed an All-Star caliber player. But it was more so that they got some upside with team control. It was what they got for a player in Adam Duvall. He had a .205/.286/.399 line through 105 games at age 29 when traded. Cincinnati got back right-handed pitcher Lucas Sims in the deal that also included Matt Wisler, and the soon-after-the-trade released Preston Tucker.
Lucas Sims is no longer considered a prospect by conventional standards. When the term prospect is used in baseball, it is speaking about a player who has rookie of the year eligibility left. Not every place uses the same criteria for that, though. Everyone uses 50 innings pitched or 130 at-bats as the cutoff point. But not everyone uses the less often mentioned 45-days on the active, non-September Major League roster. The rankings at this site does use that, but Baseball America for example, does not. Sims, however, has thrown 73.1 innings in the Major Leagues and is no longer “a prospect”.
When Lucas Sims was eligible as a prospect, he was well regarded. He peaked as the #40 prospect in baseball according to Baseball Prospectus. That was a while ago, though. He was the top prospect at one point in the Braves farm system. Sims ranked in the top five three different times within the organization. But his last season he was eligible, he finished the year ranked 14th in their organization. The system was absolutely loaded that year for Atlanta – so it’s not quite the same as being rated 14th in almost any other organization. That same season he was a Top 20 prospect in the Southern League, which is usually something organizational Top 5 guys wind up with.
There’s a term in the prospect and baseball world – post-hype sleeper. Essentially, it’s describing a player who used to be valued far more than they are today, but still has a chance based on their inherent talent to bust through. Fangraphs Eric Longenhagen pegged Lucas Sims as potentially being one of those guys earlier today.
He noted how poorly Lucas Sims season in the Major Leagues was in 2017. He posted a 5.62 ERA for Atlanta in 57.2 innings and struggled to miss bats. His control wasn’t great that year – though it was improved over what happened in 2016 when he walked 92 batters in 141.0 innings. In 2018 with the Braves Triple-A team and after his arrival in the Reds organization, his control was solid. And his strikeout rate was very strong. He had 39 walks and 115 strikeouts at the Triple-A level in 101.1 innings.
One reason that Longenhagen seems to think there’s a chance that Lucas Sims can figure it out is the improvement he made with his release point. In the article he shows the release points from 2017 and 2018. In 2017 the chart is an absolute mess. The one from 2018 is a much tighter cluster that shows a far more consistent release point. That usually coincides with better control.
At the beginning of the year it’s quite unlikely that Lucas Sims is pitching in Cincinnati. The rotation is locked in, and even if it weren’t he’s still down the depth chart a bit. In the bullpen most of it is locked in and when push comes to shove he’s down that depth chart a bit too, and he’s got options unlike a few other players vying for a spot. But the still 24-year-old has some real stuff to work with, including a plus curveball. If he can improve his control a little bit, there’s reason to believe that he could still bust out for the Reds in one role or another.