The biggest story of the spring, at least as things are getting started, is all about Nick Senzel. And so is the second biggest story. The first one is: Can Nick Senzel play center field? If the answer turns out to be yes, then it makes the next storyline simple. Will the Cincinnati Reds bring Nick Senzel up from day one? Or will the Reds play service time games and worry about 2025 instead of 2019?
C. Trent Rosecrans has an excellent article up on Nick Senzel over at The Athletic from earlier today. You should most certainly go read it – there’s some good stuff in there. But one thing that struck me was the answer that Senzel gave when asked if he believed the Reds would call him up to start the season:
“Do I believe it? No,” he said Sunday. “But that’s just my honest opinion. We’ll see.”
Strong words from the Cincinnati Reds top prospect. The team has been saying the right things. Manager David Bell said that Nick Senzel was the favorite to win the open center field job. President of Baseball Operations Dick Williams, when asked about service time specifically about Senzel said, “I anticipate putting the best team out there that we can.”
A lot of teams say the right things in spring training. Then again, sometimes they don’t (looking at you, Toronto Blue Jays re: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.). The decision with Nick Senzel isn’t simple. If the Reds think they can compete in 2019, then every single game matters. Multiple projection systems have the Reds in the thick of things in the National League Central. Not a favorite, but right there with the Cubs and Pirates around that .500 mark. Holding down Nick Senzel for two weeks could, at least in theory, be the difference in a game or three. When things are projected to be as tight as they are within the division, that could be the difference between the playoffs or sitting at home on October 5th.
On the flip side of that, though, is that if you do keep Nick Senzel down for two weeks (11 days, actually), instead of becoming a free agent after the 2024 season, he would not be eligible for free agency until after the 2025 season. It’s definitely rolling the dice on the 2019 season when you’ve told your fans, both publicly with words, and with the moves made, that the losing wasn’t acceptable any longer. But that year at the back end isn’t without value. You are telling fans, though, that 2025 is more important than 2019. Most of them will understand that, especially since it’s not like the team will just go without for all of 2019.
There are many arguments that hold water on both sides of this. As Steve Mancuso continues to say, 1 year > 12 days. But there are many that point out that the collective bargaining agreement could, and likely will be blown up before Nick Senzel reaches free agency and the rules could change. Or that the team could treat him as they did Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Devin Mesoraco, Homer Bailey, or Eugenio Suarez and if he’s the player they hope, they’ll extend him before he gets near free agency.
It’s also worth noting that Nick Senzel recently switched agents. He was a Scott Boras client. Less than two weeks ago he switched agents. That could be for a hundred different reasons. But with the thought that he doesn’t believe the Reds will bring him up to start the year, maybe it’s because he was interested in discussing a deal with the Reds and was being advised against it. Boras clients have generally gone to free agency. But several high profile clients of his have signed extensions before free agency, too. Or maybe he just felt more comfortable with a different agent. We will see what happens, but the switch of agents for a high profile prospect before reaching the Majors certainly is news worthy.