Last week I somehow missed the ZiPS Top 100 prospects list over at Fangraphs. ZiPS is a projection system from Dan Szymborski (now in it’s 19th year), and it’s been an evolving system that now incorporates data we could only dream of having our grubby hands on when they first started (Statcast and Trackman data, for example). This year is the 7th season in which ZiPS took a dive into the prospect world for a Top 100 list. There were four Cincinnati Reds prospects that made the list – Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Elly De La Cruz, and Rece Hinds. While the first three names have shown up on nearly every Top 100 list, this was the first one that had Hinds on it.
As for the ranking itself, Rece Hinds came in at #51 on the list. That put him ahead of both Elly De La Cruz (63) and Nick Lodolo (100). Hunter Greene came in at #38 on the list.
ZiPS doesn’t deal in scouting – at least not from the human eye perspective. ZiPS deals in statistical analysis and projection from that.
The Low-A Southeast had Hawkeye (the system that Statcast now uses) in nearly every ballpark in 2021. The only park it wasn’t it, of course, was Daytona. Still, there was road data available for the Tortugas players if you wanted to use it. And that road data did have some good things with regards to Hinds when he made contact. His max exit velocity was among the best in the entire league despite only having 27 games worth of data. Despite that limited number of games he was tied for 22nd in the league in the number of “barrels” – everyone ahead of him had significantly more playing time than he did.
When you look at the more traditional stats, there was one thing that really stood out – the power. That’s long been the calling card for Hinds. Despite playing in what has always been a very pitcher friendly league that suppresses power, Hinds slugged .515 – hitting 10 home runs in just 43 games. Do the math for a full minor league season and you’re talking 30+ home run pace from a guy who was 20-years-old in a league known to crush power.
On the other side of that, though, the strikeouts were a bit higher than you would like to have seen. And while we’re dealing with a limited sample on the Hawkeye data, his chase rate was nearly 39% – another rate you want to see come down.
It would seem that ZiPS looks at his profile and believes in the power enough to overlook the strikeouts. What ZiPS didn’t know at the time of the projection was the potential position switch Rece Hinds was looking at for 2022. Invited out to early minor league spring training, Hinds has been in Goodyear working in the outfield after playing third base early in his professional career. It is not necessarily a permanent change, but it is something that the Reds are exploring. Hinds has had struggles at third in his limited action in the field, having made 11 errors and posting an .890 fielding percentage in 43 games at third since being drafted.