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    Rece Hinds (Photo: Doug Gray)
    Photo: Doug Gray

    Cincinnati Reds #15 Prospect: Rece Hinds – OF

    Doug Gray 16

    In 2021 Rece Hinds missed more than half of the season after injuring his knee. He would only play in 43 games with Single-A Daytona and then get another 11 games of action on rehab with the Arizona Complex League Reds.

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    Despite missing much of the previous season and only playing in less than two months worth of games in Daytona, the Cincinnati Reds assigned Rece Hinds to High-A Dayton when the season began. Things went about as poorly as they could in April for Hinds. He struck out in all 16 games he played, going 8-58 with 33 strikeouts while hitting just .138/.242/.276 during the month.

    Hinds turned things around in May, though. He hit two home runs in the second game of the month and followed it up with two more hits in the second game later that day. When the month was over he had hit .388 with 10 walks, 23 strikeouts, and he slugged .672 in 20 games.

    June went in the other direction for the outfielder. In 17 games he went 12-67 (.179) with just three walks and he struck out 29 times. He played his final game of the month on June 21st before he went on the injured list with a broken hamate bone.

    He missed the next two months, spending a week in Arizona on a rehab assignment, before returning to Dayton’s lineup on August 23rd. Hinds played in 14 games with the Dragons, hitting .218/.283/.473 with seven extra-base hits before being promoted to Double-A Chattanooga for the final series of the year. With the Lookouts he .310/.310/.655 with five extra-base hits.

    For all 2022 Season Reviews and Scouting Reports – click here (these will come out during the week throughout the offseason).

    Rece Hinds Scouting Report

    Position: Outfield | B/T: R/R

    Height: 6′ 4″ | Weight: 215 lbs | Acquired: 2nd Round, 2019 Draft

    Born: September 5, 2000

    Hitting | He has a below-average hit tool.

    Power | Hinds shows plus to plus-plus raw power.

    Speed | He shows above-average to plus speed.

    Defense | He’s an average defender.

    Arm | Hinds shows a plus arm.

    There’s plenty to like from Rece Hinds. He’s got some of the best raw power in all of minor league baseball and with that comes high-end exit velocities. He’s got a cannon for an arm that plays well in right field (he had 11 assists in 64 games as an outfielder in 2022). And despite his size, he’s very fast runner.

    Defensively he made the transition from third base to the outfield in 2022. His arm strength he showed at the hot corner played quite well in right (and a limited amount of time in left). As the season went along he got better at reading the ball and running better routes, too. He’s going to need more time in the outfield, but there’s no reason to think that he shouldn’t be at least an average defender in the corners with a big time arm if he’s given more time out there.

    But there’s two things that have plagued Hinds thus far in his career and it’s possible that they are at least somewhat related to each other. Hinds has struggled to make contact during his professional career, striking out 35% of the time he’s stepped to the plate. That simply has to come down if he’s ever going to have a chance to hit enough to be an every day player in the big leagues.

    The other area that’s been a problem has been remaining on the field. Despite being drafted in 2019, Hinds has played in just 136 games – and that includes two different rehab stints back in Arizona. Now, like everyone else, he didn’t get the opportunity to rack up games in 2020 – though he did get time in at the Reds alternate site – but still, he missed 50 games in 2019, 70 games in 2021, and 60 games in 2022. He’s had to deal with a quad injury (2019), a knee injury (2021), and a broken hamate (2022). That’s a lot of playing time and reps that he’s missed out on.

    The 22-year-old has essentially played about one full-season’s worth of games in the minor leagues despite being drafted back in 2019. All of those missed games means missed time in the batters box and missed time seeing more pitches that he needs to start making adjustments to. All of the tools are there for Hinds to be a quality corner outfielder with plenty of power, but he’s going to need to find a way to make a little bit more contact as he moves forward.

    Video

    Rece Hinds Spray Chart

    Interesting Stat on Rece Hinds

    In 2022 Rece Hinds was a much better hitter on the road than he was at home. During 37 road games he hit .234/.331/.460 with 17 walks and 59 strikeouts in 157 plate appearances. In his 42 home games he hit .232/.279/.400 with 8 walks and 66 strikeouts in 165 plate appearances.

    Doug Gray
    Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another.

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    16 Responses

    2. I remember when some would quip, “too bad you can’t steal first base,” when speaking of Stubbs and Hamilton, because they had tons of speed but couldn’t make contact.

      Sadly, Hinds seems to be in a similar boat, but with raw power.All the raw power in the world won’t do him much good if he can’t make contact.

      But he is still young. So hopefully he can figure things out at the plate.

    4. I love Hinds.

      He got behind after signing out of high school and could play only 3 games his draft year of 2019. He missed the 2020 covid year, and then played in Daytona at age 20, having had minimal ABs in the past two years. Still, he had an OPS of .834 in 43 games in a pitchers’ league, with a 28% strikeout rate. Alas, he hurt his knee.

      He had the hamate injury last year, which is much more bad luck than being injury prone.

      Hinds is 20+ months older than Elly De La Cruz, yet he has had 648 PAs at all professional levels, compared to 1,065 for EDLC, who got 186 in the Dominican at age 17 in 2019. Hinds, then, has about a full year of development behind EDLC, despite being 20 months older. Hinds in effect has always played one level above where he ought to have been.

      2023 is Hinds’s catch-up year. It’s still only his age 22-season.

    5. The comp George gave for Hinds (Aquino) is an interesting comparison.

      Here is my take though. There were 5 player with at least 200 AB who had a K% – BB% greater than 30%:

      Brett Phillips: 34.4%
      Jo Adell: 33.6%
      Keston Hiura: 33.1%
      Jorge Alfaro: 31.8%
      Aristides Aquino: 30.4%

      They all had between 225 and 285 PA. The problem Hinds faces as he moves up is that pitching gets better. This means K% goes up and if Hinds’ K% goes up he is worthless as a ML player. Now lets take a look at these 5 players above and see what their K%-BB% was when they were in A+ or AA.

      Brett Phillips: Age 21/A+/13.1%
      Jo Adell: Age 20/AA/12.1%
      Keston Hiura: Age 21/AA/11.0%
      Jorge Alfaro: Age 21/A+/17.6%
      Aristides Aquino: Age 21/A+/13.3%

      Nothing wrong with any of these K%-BB%. The problem came when they had to face quality breaking balls. For this reason I have Hinds at prospect #33 on my top 60 list.

      To move back into my top 25 his K%-BB% will have to move below 25%. It will probably have to move below 20%.

      1. All that said Austin Hendrick had a K%-BB% north of 30% through July 31st this year and he is ranked #11 on my list. However, from August 1 through the end of the season his K%-BB% was 11.8% and his ISO was .278 The only player to come close to being in the 15% or less K%-BB% with an ISO north of .250 in full season ball is Steer (.241 ISO, 7.7% K%-BB%).

        I know Cam Collier, Carlos Jorge, Leonardo Balcazar and Esmith Pineda had these stats (K%-BB% .250) in half season ball. None of them matched Hendrick’s .278 ISO though.

        Can Hendrick maintain his power and keep his K% at the level they are now? I don’t know. But I feel there is a much better chance that he maintains this level than there is a chance the Hinds cuts his K% in half.

        1. Saw Austin Hendrick 4-5 times was very impressed. I came away impressed with his speed and athletic ability. His homeruns were tape measured shots similar to EDLC’s. Very solid player. I think the light just switched on at some point.

    6. I was down on him last preseason, but then Doug had a scouting report that swayed me over to him. Hinds became one of the guys that I was most excited to see play in 22. We all know how that went, but I am still excited to see what kind of progress he can make with a full season. He’s got the tools, lets hope a bit of luck starts to go his way.

    7. Why do the Reds keep drafting guys that swing and miss so much or just dont hit for average? Hinds, Calihan, Allen, etc. We need guys that can hit and then let them grow into their bodies and hit for power later.

      1. Maybe they are listening to you Collier and Stewart seem to fit what you suggest. At the time he was drafted McLain did.

        2. Two more great examples DaveCT. Add Stephenson and Ervin to the list and you have 6 of the 7 first picks (if they were hitters) are contact players.

        3. Plus two more. The more serious swing and miss guys have usually been guys drafted in the 2nd round and lower, in particular the catchers. Nelson, Tanner, Okey, etc., as well as Ibarra, Taylor Sparks, and KJ Franklin. The exception being Hendricks.

          As for McLain, after his initial season, BA and others were all over his lack of power. So, what does he do? He comes out in 2022 and works on finding his in-game power. So, that’s not really selling out for power, so much as doing something developmentally.

      2. Also I think Allen will eventually fit into better than average K% category. He may have have two years as a pro under his belt but he lost considerable time in high school to football and basketball.

        1. Very true. A similar ‘outcome,’ I guess as Hendricks, being a player from the NE part of the country. Plus he’s just had 172 games in two years of full season ball.

    8. I have zero confidence that rece hinds will make the majors with the reds. His interview in the athletic this fall indicated that he didn’t even think his swing and miss approach was a problem. That shows either a complete lack of understanding of what he needs to work on, a total lack of maturity or a total lack of coaching. Maybe all of the above.

      1. I would not blame coaching.

        Austin Hendrick went from striking out 40% of his PA to 27% in the last two months. His K% – BB% dropped from 30.3% to 11.8%

        Noelvi Marte struck out 21% of his PA in the Seattle organization and only 18% in Dayton. His K%-BB% dropped from 10.6% to 4.8%

        Elly De La Cruz’ K% – BB% dropped from 26.3% to 23%

        Jay Allen’s K% dropped from 24.4% in Daytona to 10% in September. His K% – BB% dropped from 11% to 6.7%.

        If he truly has no problem with a 40% K% then my ranking him 33 is much too high. In my 40 – 45 slots in my rankings I have Confidan, Hubbart, Farr, Brutti, Quintana and Torres. I am starting to believe he belongs in this group.

        Talent is only a piece of the puzzle. Work ethic, coachability and understanding are necessary for growth in anything including baseball.

        If Hinds comes out next April and May with a 40% K% he will quickly fall in my rankings.

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