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    Blake Dunn (Photo: Doug Gray)
    Photo: Doug Gray

    Cincinnati Reds #15 Prospect: Blake Dunn – OF

    Doug Gray 24

    After being drafted in the summer of 2021, Blake Dunn struggled to stay on the field over the next two seasons. He missed a month in that 2021 season and then played in just 37 games in 2022. He performed well while he was on the field but staying on the field was a problem for him.

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    After coming off the bench as a pinch runner in the season opener with the High-A Dayton Dragons, Blake Dunn set the tone for his second in his first start the next day, going 2-4 with a home run and a walk. He kept that going for the rest of April hitting .386/.539/.702 in 19 games with 11 steals for the Dragons before the month came to an end.

    The outfielder went into a slump in the first two weeks of May, but picked things back up a little bit in the second half of the month and carried that forward into June before being promoted up to Double-A on June 6th. He went 1-12 in the first three games with Chattanooga, but on the 9th against Birmingham he went 2-3 with a walk, steal, and a run, and for the next 63 games he went on a tear for the Lookouts. In 297 plate appearances during that stretch he hit .364/.446/.604 and stole 30 bases in those 63 games.

    That 63-game stretch came to an end when the calendar flipped to September. That’s when Dunn went into a bit of a slump. In the final 13 games of the regular season he hit just .175, but he walked more than he struck out and still posted a .400 on-base percentage in that stretch. His five steals in that time pushed him to 54 on the season.

    For all 2023 Season Reviews and Scouting Reports – click here (these will come out during the week throughout the offseason).

    Blake Dunn Scouting Report

    Position: Outfield | B/T: R/R

    Height: 6′ 0″ | Weight: 210 lbs. | Acquired: 15th Round (2021 Draft) | Born: September 5, 1998

    Hitting | He has an average hit tool.

    Power | He has slightly above-average power potential.

    Speed | He has plus speed.

    Defense | He has average defense.

    Arm | He has an above-average arm.

    The 2023 season was the first time that Blake Dunn was able to stay on the field for the full season since he was in college back in 2019 and he took full advantage of his playing time. With 23 home runs and 54 steals he became only the second Reds prospect to go 20/50 since 1960.

    It was a season that saw Dunn do a little bit of everything. He hit for average on top of hitting for power. He uses the entire field and was extremely balanced in spraying the ball everywhere around the diamond. While his hit tool only grades out as average, or perhaps slightly above depending on who you ask, his speed that allows him to pick up additional infield hits could allow that tool to play up some in the future. To that note, he had 29 infield hits in 2023 which certainly played a part in his hitting .312.

    While Dunn isn’t likely to be a big-time power hitter, he’s got the potential to hit 20-25 homers in the big leagues and his speed could help him pick up a few additional doubles as well. With plus speed, and the new rules that promote more stolen bases, it’s tougher to project exactly how many steals he can put together, but he should be able to steal plenty of bases moving forward – though it seems fair to think that after steal 54 in 2023 that he isn’t likely to steal 50+ in the big leagues.

    Defensively he can handle center, left, or right field. In his career he’s played all three, but center or right field are more ideal than left because of both his speed (more valuable in center) and his arm (more valuable in right).

    A well-rounded skillset gives Dunn a high floor to work with. But a potential 5-tool player, he’s got plenty of upside, too. He’s older than your typical prospect, but the amount of lost time due to injuries and the pretty much cancelled 2020 season, he gets some wiggle room on his development timeline.

    Video

    Blake Dunn Spray Chart

    Interesting Stat on Blake Dunn

    He hit .351/.466/.596 with runners on in 220 plate appearances during the season.

    Doug Gray
    Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another.

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    24 Responses

    2. I think that Dunn is the real McCoy. His numbers (including SBs) are pretty consistent across all levels. It would be better if he was 23 and not 25, but as Doug wrote, the 2020 season puts an asterisk on the development of a lot of these guys.

      Dunn was hit by 32 pitches last season.

    4. I don’t know if there is a prospect that I’m more excited to see get off to a good start in 24. He’s not on the 40 man, but I still feel like he’s likely the 1st man called up.

      Dunn 23 HR .947 OPS (AA 163 AB’s AAA 295 AB’s) (24.40 HR)
      Steer 23 HR .820 OPS (582 AB’s) (19.20 HR)
      Friedl 18 HR .891 OPS (488 AB’s) (17.92 HR)
      Benson 11 HR .863 OPS (287 AB’s) (18.62 HR)
      Fraley 15 HR .782 OPS (336 AB’s) (21.69 HR)

      The last (00.00HR) number is the amount of HR’s they paced last year if they were in an evenly split 4 man rotation in the OF. Assuming Dunn makes it up to the Reds at some point in 24, I’d like Fraley to move to full time DH. Then we’d have a very balanced OF Friedl/Dunn CF, Dunn/Benson RF, Steer/Friedl LF. There are no mashers on this list, but a bunch of guys who can hit around 20 HR’s seems pretty good to me.

      1. 80 HR’s from this group is not out of the question by any means.

        RF Benson 10/Fraley 15
        Cf Friedl 20/RH bat 5
        LF Steer 25/LH bat 5

        That’s approaching 30 per position in a sum is greater that all the parts approach.

    5. So many qualifiers for Dunn – small sample size, quirky injury history, age – but the skills show he may the first callup – platoon vs. LHP, speed/defense, PH.

      I’d disregard spring training, but if he’s hot for 150 ABs in AAA get him up and see if he can get into the WAR bonus pool. I expect there will be playing time available in the OF.

    6. I think he is the real deal. If Friedl goes down after May I think he gets the call.

      The Reds are in an interesting position. I have never seen a team in this situation before.

      2021: India/Stephenson (Acquired Fraley)
      2022: Friedl/Greene/Lodolo/Ashcraft/Diaz/(Acquired Benson)
      2023: McLain/EDLC/CES/Steer/Abbott/Williamson
      Opening Day 2024: Marte

      That is 10 everyday position players, 5 SP and a Closer. And they are not done.

      2024 after opening day: Phillips/Richardson/Hurtubise/Dunn
      2025: Lowder/Petty/Arroyo/1st round draft pick/Matheu Nelson/Rece Hinds
      2026: Collier/Balcazar/Jorge/Stewart/Rodriguez/Aguiar
      2027: Cabrera

      It is quite possible the 2025 graduation class could be better than the 2023 graduation class

      1. It’s obviously too hard to predict 1 year from now, much less 2 years from now, but I like the names you have listed.

        Based off of the graduating classes that you’re predicting in 24, and 25 we will have 16 position players, and 9 starting pitchers.

        If Krall has shown anything it’s he good at dealing MLB talent away for good prospects. Next offseason the Reds should have a surplus of MLB assets. Next off season might be a slight pruning. 1, or 2 position players, and maybe 1 pitcher.

        1. Good point. I think the best teams have some turnover each year. With good health, I could see the Reds hitting that point next offseason where they can “prune.”

        2. One of the benefits of pruning is in the psychology of group/team development. Rather than repeat the task at hand each season with the same cast, having wrinkles such as new teammates with different abilities and new roles to deal with and overcome can be a huge benefit and not a deficit. It adds to the challenge in a way that stimulates growth. And these highly competitive athletes eat up. And, lest we forget, psychology is an imprecise science, so high analytics may not be apparent.

    7. He certainly is a bit older than your average prospect but if I had to lay money on a guy that will come through in the big, big way, Blake Dun would be that guy. Solid all around game and truly just seems to be getting better.

      He did nose dive at the end of the season, but it was after being beaned and also a play at third base where he was a baserunner and he seemed to hurt his lower half. Keep an eye on this guy – he could very well be the missing piece in the outfield configuration.

      I’m so high on him, I will be going to Arizona for the first time in my life to watch some spring training games. Chomping at the bit.

    8. Keep in mind Dunn is EXCELLENT t drawing free passes. In addition to his 62 walks last year he also had 32 HBP’s. That’s 94 free passes in 124 games. That would be 122 dress passes in a full MLB season. With his speed that’s a great combo. Can’t wait to see what he does this year and and hoping he makes his MLB debut later this year. he’s not getting any younger at 25.

      1. The age is an issue, but can be mitigated. I wonder how well he knows the HOFer from Holland, and if he can at all following his workout/physical fitness regimen.

    9. What happens if he blows the doors off ST (say 1000 OPS). Do they still send him down if all Outfielders above him are healthy?

      I think the answer is yes. It’s another testament to how far the organization has come in the past couple of years

      1. Agreed. With the typically older pitchers throwing endless breaking balls, AAA presents different challenges that can be important to development, in addition to the depth presently in the org.

        1. Also agree – at least 150, even 250 ABs in AAA. Unless there’s a serious hole to fill, late June for whichever of Dunn/Hinds/Hurtubise looks best.

      2. They sent CES 1.748, and McLain 1.167 down when they mashed in spring training last year. I’d guess there’s little chance that Dunn could get on the opening day roster.

        1. CES was injured at the end of spring, and McLain was the first callup on May 15 after 180 PA/144ABs in Louisville. If Dunn is uninjured and matches McLain’s AAA start, expect him after May 15. I expect him by June 15.

        2. CES was reassigned to minor league camp March 14th, I don’t know the day he was actually injured, but I feel it was later on.

          I guess it’s not really important because I agree with your timeline for Dunn.

        3. TBH I suspect Hurtubise is the first called up – he’s already had success at AAA and he has the skills more suited for the sporadic callup/sub/PH-PR/defensive replacement role. I think they’ll want Dunn and Hinds to play 60-80 straight games at Louisville to be sure they’re ready.

          IIRC the CES issue was initially to tighten up his defense, which is why he was an early assignment to MiLB camp, and then, very late in the spring he had whatever the nagging injury was which put him behind the others on the debut list.

          Should be much simpler this season since they seem more settled on who plays where and when. Injury, of course clouds the issue, but barring a Benson like slump, I doubt there will be much shuffling – recall last season had Barrero/Senzel/Myers/Vosler/Votto all coming and going variously.

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