During the 2022 season, Julian Aguiar pitched well for Single-A Daytona in 23 games before making two starts to end the year in High-A Dayton. His performance stood out and put him on the prospect map after his first full season.
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When the 2023 season began the Cincinnati Reds sent Julian Aguiar back to Dayton where he joined the Dragons rotations. His first start of the season came on the road in Lake County and he was charged with two unearned runs in 5.0 innings while striking out nine batters and walking just one. The next time out he allowed three runs in 4.1 innings at home to Great Lakes. From there he went on a run for the following five weeks where he made six starts and allowed four earned runs on 12 hits and nine walks in 30.0 innings – giving up just one extra-base hit in the process (a double).
That stretch ran through May, but his first two starts of June saw him struggle a little bit as he walked nine batters in 9.0 innings and gave up six earned runs between the two outings against West Michigan and Cedar Rapids. Aguiar would rebound over the next three weeks, allowing just two earned runs in four starts for Dayton and earning a promotion to Double-A Chattanooga in mid-July.
In his Double-A debut the right-handed starter didn’t give up an earned run in 5.0 innings against Mississippi. But the next three starts were a bit of a struggled as he allowed four earned runs in each outing and threw 12.1 innings in that stretch. Just like the bump in the road he had earlier, he rebounded well. In the five starts that followed he allowed just six runs and had 33 strikeouts with just two walks in 29.1 innings for the Lookouts. September began with a tough outing against Montgomery where he allowed six earned runs in 4.0 innings, but he came back for his final start of the season with a 2-run outing in 4.0 innings against Birmingham. He would make one start in the playoffs, giving up three runs in 6.0 innings.
For all 2023 Season Reviews and Scouting Reports – click here (these will come out during the week throughout the offseason).
Julian Aguiar Scouting Report
Position: Right-handed pitcher | B/T: L/R
Height: 6′ 3″ | Weight: 180 lbs | Acquired: 12th Round (2021 Draft)
Born: June 4, 2001
Fastball | An above-average pitch that works in the mid-90’s and tops out at 97 MPH.
Slider | An above-average offering that works in the low-to-mid 80’s.
Change Up | An average offering that works in the low 80’s.
While Julian Aguiar hasn’t exactly exploded onto the scene, he’s sort of come out of nowhere after being a 12th round draft pick in 2021. Since being drafted he’s thrown 230.0 innings with a 3.17 ERA, 64 walks, just 22 homers allowed, and he’s struck out 265. He’s done nothing but get results.
For Aguiar, his stuff has stepped forward since being drafted. When he was in college he threw in the low 90’s and touched the mid-90’s with his fastball. Now he’s throwing in the mid-90’s and touching 97. His secondary stuff has gotten better and more consistent, too. With two above-average pitches, and a third average offering, he’s got plenty of stuff to remain a starting pitcher.
Not only does he throw plenty of strikes, he can do so with all three of his pitches. The mix of stuff and control helps him keep hitters off balance. To this point in his career, Aguiar has also been a guy who has generated grounders at an above-average rate. Prior to Double-A he had a groundball rate of 50% at every level he’d pitched at. In Double-A that dipped to 48% in his 11 starts (the big league groundball rate is 42%).
The jump to Double-A did see his ERA jump up to 4.28 and he allowed more hits than innings pitched. His home run rate more than tripled from where it was in High-A with Dayton, too. While he still performed well with Chattanooga, it was a big step backwards from his first half with the Dragons.
In the 2023 season he threw 125.0 innings, which was a new career high. He’ll need to build upon that total moving forward and show he can maintain his stuff while taking on a larger workload, but that hasn’t been an issue as he’s added to his workload over the last two seasons.
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Interesting Stat on Julian Aguiar
With Dayton he held right-handed hitters to a .460 OPS, but with Chattanooga righties had an OPS of .805 against him. Righties struck out more often against him in Double-A, but also hit five homers against him (just one in Dayton) in 20 fewer trips to the plate.