After being drafted in the 1st round of 2023, the Cincinnati Reds essentially shut Rhett Lowder down for the rest of the year. When the 2024 season began he was assigned to the High-A Dayton Dragons. That assignment was a bit of a surprise given that he was the second pitcher taken in the draft and was viewed as one of the more advanced pitchers in recent memory.
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The first start of the season for Rhett Lowder came on April 5th against Lansing. He was limited on his pitch count to open the season and he threw 4.0 shutout innings with a walk and five strikeouts on 65 pitches. That was followed up a week later with a 1-run, 5.0 inning outing on the road. Seven days after that he was back on the mound in Dayton and had a bit of a hiccup against Fort Wayne as the TinCaps scored three runs against him in 4.1 innings while striking out just once and drawing three walks. Over his next two starts he allowed three earned runs in 12.0 innings and struck out 18 batters with just one walk.
That performance earned him a promotion to Double-A Chattanooga and he would make his Lookouts debut on May the 11th. Things were so-so against Tennessee as he allowed three runs in 5.0 innings.
Things went south in his next outing as he allowed seven runs on nine hits and two walks in 4.2 innings against Birmingham. The next time out it was even worse as he failed to get out of the 2nd inning while allowing five runs. Lowder turned things around a bit over the next two weeks, allowing four runs in 15.0 innings over three starts. But the two starts that followed were clunkers as he didn’t get out of the 3rd inning against Montgomery and then Pensacola scored six runs against him in 5.0 innings. After a solid start against Rocket City, Tennessee faced him for a second time in the season and scored four runs against him in 4.1 innings.
Through his first 10 starts in Double-A his ERA was 6.85 and batters were hitting .324/.368/.508 against him. Something seemed to click for him after that. Over the next six weeks he would make six starts for the Lookouts and allow four total runs while throwing 34.0 innings. During that span he held batters to a .478 OPS – lower than the slugging percentage they had against him in his first 10 starts for Chattanooga.
Cincinnati felt that he had made the adjustments and was ready to move up to Triple-A. On August 22nd he would debut at home for Louisville and throw 6.0 shutout innings against Gwinnett while striking out seven Stripers and giving up just three hits.
With the Reds big league rotation in shambles, Lowder was then promoted to the big leagues. He would make his MLB debut on August 30th in game two of a doubleheader against Milwaukee and he gave up one run in 4.0 innings while walking four and striking out six. His next two outings saw him throw 11.1 shutout innings against the Astros and Cardinals. Taking on the Twins in his next outing, Minnesota got the best of him as they scored three runs in 5.1 innings. The right-hander rebounded well in the final two starts of the season as he fired off 5.0 shutout innings against both the Pirates and Cubs.
From July 9th in Double-A and going through the end of the season, the final 13 starts of 2024 for Rhett Lowder saw him post a 1.02 ERA in 70.2 innings while allowing just two home runs. He was dominant for the entire second half of his season while pitching at the three highest levels of the game.
For all 2024 Season Reviews and Scouting Reports – click here (these will come out during the week throughout the offseason).
Rhett Lowder Scouting Report
Position: Right-handed pitcher | B/T: R/R
Height: 6′ 2″ | Weight: 200 lbs. | Acquired: 1st Round (2023 draft) | Born: March 8, 2002
Fastball | Lowder throws both a 2-seamer and a 4-seamer, and he throws them around the same amount, too. The 4-seamer averaged 94 MPH this season while his 2-seamer averaged 92.7 MPH.
Slider | An above-average offering that works in the mid-80’s with downward biting action.
Change Up | An above-average pitch that works in the mid-80’s with good tumbling action.
Let’s start by talking about his fastballs. The two pitches are quite different. His 2-seamer gets tons of sink, gets very few swings and misses, but generates a lot of grounders. The 4-seamer doesn’t have a ton of movement, but generates a solid number of swings and misses for a fastball, but does not generate many grounders. When facing lefties he uses his 4-seamer three times as often. When he’s facing righties he uses his 2-seamer nearly two-and-a-half times as often.
That breakdown is pretty descriptive of what Lowder does overall. He gives hitters a lot of different looks and mixes and matches things well. Both of his fastballs are used between 25-28% of the time. His slider is also thrown in that same range. The change up is his least used pitch and he throws it just under 20% of the time. Lowder doesn’t lean on one pitch more than any other – you really don’t know what you’re going to get.
While there’s not a single pitch that stands out for Lowder, all four of them are at least average offerings. Combine that with an ability to throw strikes with them all and you’ve got a good starting pitching profile. While the upside may not be as high as some others, the floor is also so much higher, too. He’s about as big league ready as you’re going to get.
With that said, his big league time at the end of 2024 showed both the good and “needs to work on” side of his graduation to the big league level. His ERA was 1.17 in six starts. That’s outstanding. But it was built on unsustainable peripherals. He didn’t give up a home run in 30.2 innings, had a high walk rate, and his strikeout rate was very low. All three of those things are likely to change in the future and balance out a bit.
Even as a groundball type pitcher, he’s going to give up home runs and when you toss in Great American Ball Park, that’s doubly so. His control is good, so his walk rate is almost assuredly going to come down. It’s the strikeout rate that is a bit of a question here. As noted – his stuff is good, but it doesn’t stick out. With a little more command will the walks coming down lead to more strikeouts? Or will it just lower the walk rate? Pitchers can get by with low walk numbers and groundballs, but where his strikeout rate winds up is going to determine exactly how good he can be.
Helping control the running game is an area of needed improvement for Lowder. During his lone professional season the opposition went 21-for-24 against him in stolen base attempts across the four levels he pitched at. While it’s easier to steal bases today than is used to be thanks to limited pickoff attempts and larger bases giving runners an advantage, 21-for-24 is simply giving them too much.
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Interesting Stat on Rhett Lowder
In 2024 at all of the levels he pitched at combined the 2-3-4 hitters had a .301/.376/.446 line against him with 20 walks and 39 strikeouts in 210 plate appearances. The other six spots in the lineup combined to hit .204/.249/.303 with 18 walks and 96 strikeouts in 365 plate appearances.