Josh Smith came into the 2011 season as an older prospect who spent the year before as a professional in the bullpen for Billings and Dayton but was being tried as a starter in his first full season. As a reliever, I noted that his breaking ball had a chance to be very good when I saw it during the 2010 campaign. Moving to the rotation could have put his breaking ball and fastball backwards some as he had to take things back a notch to keep up through the entire game.
Smith began the season well, throwing 6 innings with 9 strikeouts and just one earned run in his season debut. That game would set the tone for the month of April for the former Lipscomb pitcher, saving his best start for the last of the month where he would strike out 12 in 6 shutout innings. For the month he had a 0.93 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 29 innings pitched to go with a 0.72 WHIP for the Dayton Dragons.
In May, Smith would slow down ever so slightly but remained dominant at the head of the Dayton rotation. In his fourth start of the month he would go on to strike out a season high 13 batters while allowing 2 runs over 7.1 innings. He totaled 26.2 innings pitched on the month and had 37 strikeouts to go against just 4 walks. His ERA was 2.70 on the month and his WHIP was 1.09.
June was more of the same for Smith when he threw 22 total innings for Dayton during the month with a 2.45 ERA over four starts. He would strike out 23 opposing hitters and walk just four of them with a 1.05 WHIP. The highlight however came as Smith was selected to start for the Midwest League All Star game where he struck out two batters in a scoreless inning of work.
The month of July was quite tough on the right hander, especially when compared to the previous three months. His ERA ballooned up to 5.20 over 27.2 innings pitched, though his walks were low (7) and he struck out 28 batters while only allowing 1 HR. Perhaps he hit a bit of a dead arm period that didn’t allow him to remain as sharp at all times.
For August and September there was a bit of a rebound with a 5-2 record over 7 starts that took up 37 innings. In that time he would strike out 43 hitters and walk just 11 with a 1.19 WHIP and a 3.41 ERA, though he did allow 5 HR’s in that stretch despite only giving up 5 during the previous four months of the season.
Overall Thoughts
For the most part, Josh Smith was the best pitcher in the Midwest League during the 2011 season. He led the league in wins and strikeouts while finishing 5th in WHIP (among those with 100 IP). He put up a fantastic season for Dayton, helping lead them to the best record in the league and the playoffs. He was old for the league though and his numbers suggest he is a better prospect than they would otherwise tell us. He may be a future reliever in the Major Leagues, but his stuff is good enough that it could play at that level with a fastball/curveball combination. With his age and stuff, he could jump to Pensacola (AA) to begin the 2012 season.
Stats
| W | L | ERA | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | WHIP | BB% | K% | SO/BB |
| 14 | 7 | 2.97 | 142.1 | 122 | 10 | 33 | 166 | 1.09 | 5.7% | 28.7% | 5.03 |