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    Lyon Richardson (Photo: Doug Gray)
    Lyon Richardson (Photo: Doug Gray)

    Reds MiLB Notebook: Lyon Richardson is making it interesting

    Doug Gray 25

    The Cincinnati Reds stopped a 7-game losing streak on Tuesday against the Los Angeles Angels in a 1-0 win. Pitching the final two innings of the game was Lyon Richardson. He allowed two hits, walked no one, and he struck out three batters.

    With his two shutout innings, Richardson lowered his ERA to 2.00 on the spring. He’s thrown 9.0 innings in 2025, allowed nine hits, walked three batters, and he’s struck out nine batters. This is a follow up to what he did last spring when he also pitched well, throwing 8.0 innings without an earned run in three games.

    It’s been a good spring for Richardson, who is the only healthy pitching prospect left in big league camp (Rhett Lowder is also in big league camp but is injured). He made his big league debut back in 2023 when he made four starts and threw 16.2 innings with an 8.54 ERA. Last season he only pitched in one game for the Reds during the regular season and allowed two runs in his 0.2 innings. In Louisville he made 19 starts and six relief appearances where he posted a 4.67 ERA. Control was a bit of an issue as he walked 59 batters in his 98.1 innings, while hitting another six batters. He did strike out 93 batters during his time in Triple-A.

    Stuff has never been much of an issue for Lyon Richardson. Control has been a problem at times. While he’s never really been downright bad with regards to throwing strikes in the minor leagues, he’s never really been good outside of his one season with Dayton back in 2019. Every other season in the minor leagues he’s walked more than four batters per 9-innings pitched. Last season he had a career worst 5.4 walks per 9-innings while pitching for Louisville.

    So far this spring he’s done a good job throwing strikes. And he’s been mixing in four/five pitches. While not all of his innings have featured pitch tracking, most have. In those innings he’s gone with his 4-seamer 31% of the time, his 2-seamer 15% of the time, his change up 34% of the time, the slider 11% of the time, and his curveball 9% of the time.

    We only have pitch tracking data on Richardson for his time in Triple-A and the big leagues, but if we break those down month-by-month we have 13 months worth of data to look at. He’s never thrown his change up 34% of the time in a month. Last year with Louisville and Cincinnati he used his change up 24% of the time. That’s plenty, but the usage of it in the spring so far has made it the single most used pitch he’s thrown (as long as we separate the 4-seamer and 2-seamer from each other instead of just labeling it “fastball”). Perhaps that’s just a spring training thing where he’s been working on that pitch more, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

    Another thing or two worth keeping an eye on with regards to Richardson is that his sinker velocity is up significantly. Last year the pitch averaged 93.6, though the year before it was 94.9. But this spring it’s 96.0. It is getting a little less sink to it, but it’s held it’s running action with the uptick in velocity. Then there’s the fact that he has only been stretched past one inning once this spring. Last year his final five appearances for Louisville were all out of the bullpen. The first three were multi-inning appearances, but then he missed nearly a month on the injured list before returning in the final week where he made two 1-inning appearances. Is he going to be making the full transition into the bullpen at this point? Or is his competing for a spot in the big league bullpen keeping that up in the air and if he doesn’t get that job he will find himself in the minor leagues starting again? We might have to wait and find out with that one.

    Ethan O’Donnell shows off

    Speaking of Lyon Richardson’s outing on Tuesday, he found himself in a jam in the 8th inning with a runner on second base and two outs. He would give up a single in that situation, but left fielder Ethan O’Donnell made a big time play to help his starting pitcher out.

    The throw from O’Donnell was on the money and well ahead of the runner. For those wondering, the throw clocked in at 95.1 MPH. We’ve got very limited data for O’Donnell when it comes to Statcast and tracking his arm strength, but back in 2023 he spent a short amount of time in Daytona where they had the data for road games. His top throw then was 92.4 MPH. There were only 25 throws that were tracked, and most of those were just him tossing the ball back to the infield rather than him attempting to make throws to a bag to prevent a runner from reaching that base safely.

    Doug Gray
    Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another.

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    25 Responses

    2. Richardson might be taking the bullpen spot everyone assumed was going to go to Ashcraft.

      I’ve been hyping up O’Donnell’s arm strength since last summer. Saw him throw a rope right on target to the SS after ranging 50 feet to his left in RF and making a catch in the corner to prevent the guy at 2B from even attempting tagging up and trying to take 3rd. The power is average and as for now I think you have to say the hit tool is average, but arm, speed, and defense are all plus for O’Donnell. If he can hit enough, he can be a starting MLB OF in any of the three spots.

      1. Richardson, Ashcraft, and Maxwell could all be a part of the 2025 bullpen. Right now, we are vet rich with Rogers, Suter, Barlow, and Pagan, but when the inevitable injuries occur, we got a nice trio of guys to step in. We also Mey get lucky with another bullpen arm this season.

        1. Think you would need to include Diaz as a veteran as well. We think of him as young but he is 28 with 3-years in the big leagues and an All Star appearance

      2. At this point, I think I would like to see Ashcraft start the year in AAA as a starter. If he can re-establish himself as a starter, then great. If not, then he can go to the bullpen when needed.

      3. Richardson’s change up is eye opening this year. I think he K’d Machado on it last week. This is part of passing the eye test for me, throwing a 3-2 change for strike 3 to Manny Machado. He seems more centered and in control, more well adjusted. He just turned 25 in Jan. so this all seems relatively on schedule.

    3. I actually think O’donnell’s hit tool is underated. I think it regresses slightly when he sells out for power, when he stays within himself he does a good job, he just needs to recognize the pitches he can drive just a little better. I think he has 15 homer potential, ( actually think his comp is a left handed Austin Hayes, maybe slightly less homer potential) I am really interested to see how he progresses this year in AA and hopefully AAA

      1. O’Donnell needs to cut his K rate a decent chunk still. If he does that, then the upside becomes a lot more real. I could see him even pushing 20 HR power in his prime, but largely in that 10-15 range.

    4. O’Donnell is now to a point (AA) where we should get a good idea of what kind of a player he could develop into.

      I’d love to get one of the AAA OF to (Dunn, Hurt, Hinds) to earn a MLB starting outfield position at some point this season. Then follow that up with one of the AA guys (O’Don, Allen, HRod).

      That’s a lot to ask for from these guys results in 2024. Let’s hope someone separates themselves in 2025.

      1. I don’t seen any one of Dunn, Hinds, or Hurtubise as MLB starters. I think the one with the best chance is Dunn, but even that I see as a long shot.

        1. I’m with you and agree on who has the best chance. That’s why I said I would love to get, as opposed to expect to get.

          I didn’t clock TJ Friedl as a MLB starter, and he proved me wrong. Hopefully Dunn or one of the others do the same.

        2. Dunn is looking better and better in CF, and I think that’s where his greatest prospective value is. He came in on a ball over Elly’s head for a catch yesterday and looked every bit the part of a ML CF. If he’s optioned to AAA, I want him playing the position every day. I get the feeling he is right ‘there,’ about to hit enough where he’ll be a 4th OF for some time. Whether with us or not remains to be seen. But a team with weak offense, ie Seattle, may easily want to pick him up in a trade for a player we can use, say a middle reliever at the deadline. That’s great value for the 15th round guy.

        3. The problem with most little stature guys is the have to play at 100% constantly to keep up with the bigger guys and are typically injury prone because of that. Friedl is an example as is former D-Back, White Sox, Nationals outfielder Adam Eaton. I’m afraid Dunn will be saddled with the same issue or at least the perception.I once had a 5’9″ High School player who was a tremendous hitter but was rejected by several D-1 programs because they thought his body would break down, He ended op at a mid-major and set several school hitting records.

        4. MK – Are you thinking of Dunn as a “little stature guy”? From the little video I’ve seen, and the BRef bio it looks like he’s middling height but pretty solid physically.

          Hurtubise and Friedl seem to be more slightly built or shorter, and Dunn’s progression through MiLB was marked by several flush injuries, including colliding with one of the larger players in baseball history.

          Duke’s comment is likely accurate, but of the trio Hurtubise/Hinds/Dunn, Dunn seems to have the fewest issues to overcome – as it is, Dunn seems to be the midpoint, or median, of Hurtubise and Hinds considering the K/BB% and power projections. He may not make it as a regular, but his skill set right now is closer than the other two.

      2. O’Donnell turns 23 next week, but he’s only had 131 pro games and 456 pro at bats. And he’s in AA. For Dylan Crews, that’s expected but not so much for a 6th round pick.

        I really am not knocking Justin Boyd (he’s been hurt and was from a weaker draft class), but we look like we’ve gotten much better value from our 6th rounder than we did from our 2nd rounder the previous year.

        O’Donnell’s pre-draft report said he had a completely legit chance to stay in CF. Yet he plays alongside two other legit CF’s, with HRod on a corner. It could be a real challenge not to pigeon hole these guys at some point, ie keeping Jorge on center given his incredible range and being a lighter hitter (more classic CF), Allen, O’Donnell on a corner given more power. But O’Donnell may ace that one if he shows the greatest set of tools. Then again, I am certainly not one to underestimate Carlos Jorge, either. What a year at AA this could be.

        1. I’ve seen O’Donnell play CF, he would get the occasional start there in Dayton, no worries about it. He can fill any of the three spots and be an above average defender. Pure ball player. Get that K rate down to about 20% or lower and he’ll be good to go.

        2. Now i have to look up his monthly splits, especially once his shoulder injury improved.

        3. K%

          April 18.4%
          May 28.3%
          June 38.1%
          July 21.9%
          Aug 22.4%
          Sept 44.4% (7 games)

          Vs LHP 24.2%
          Vs RHP 27.7%

    5. Richardson seems always has been just one adjustment shy of establishing as a big leaguer. He has a very nice chance to make the 26-man roster this year after his solid performance this spring. I think he was an outsider before the spring training started

    6. Since the spring training results for Richardson seem to be the outlier vs. his historical record, it would be reasonable to send him to AAA with a bus on standby, ready to bring him north across the Ohio River, should the trend continue.

      1. I’m not sure whether Richardson makes the team out of the gate or not, but this approach would be short-sighted. Spring Training results matter most when a player has shown a clear change in performance, either good or bad. Richardson seems to meet that threshold with the uptick in his pitches. When players get really good ST results but with a similar skill set as shown last season, I agree with your approach–send them down and let them demonstrate the improvements over time.

        1. His stuff looks better to me. His curve doesn’t seem as big breaking. And, as i said above, change looks pretty great.

          We shall see. No harm optioning him. If the improvements are real, he knows it better than anyone, and that confidence can get a life of its own.

    8. Richardson has a legitimate shot at making the Opening Day roster and improving the team. I can see two ways he makes the team:

      If Abbott is held back, Spiers would slot into the 5th starter role, opening the final bullpen spot for Richardson. Alternatively, the Reds could option Diaz to the minor, and Richardson could make the team. Yesterday, Gordon Wittenmyer wrote a blistering article arguing that Diaz should be optioned.

      We all saw the value of quality multi-inning relievers last season. Richardson will help the Reds at some point this season and it may be right off the bat. Given that he only has one option remaining, having him on the team from the start could preserve his option as well.

      1. Diaz has declined or tread water for each of his three seasons.

        H/9 IP
        22 — 4.0
        23 — 5.9
        24 — 6.7

        BB 9/IP
        22 — 4.7
        23 — 4.8
        24 — 5.0

        K 9/IP
        22 — 11.7
        23 — 11.5
        24 — 8.8

        WHIP
        22 — 0.958
        23 — 1.188
        24 — 1.296

        It’d take some research to see if Diaz’ declining numbers paralleled any injury. I don’t want to be unfair. However …

        Enter Francona. This past Fall, Francona et al stated a clear expectation that players needed to get in better shape and to report to camp in shape. According to Wittenmyer, Diaz did not, or did not do so enough to make a positive impression. We don’t know for fact. We can say, no one is raving about his conditioning, as with other arms, Greene Lodolo, Abbott etc.

        IF he did show up in lesser condition than expected, that itself is grounds to option him. That is the accountability Jonathon India addressed post season. Further, it isn’t just punitive, as is so often mistaken for accountability on the other site. It would be the direct consequences of his actions.

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