Home
    Articles
    Chattanooga Lookouts Hat

    Reds top prospect Chase Burns is pushing for a promotion

    Doug Gray 22

    A little more than 10 months ago the Cincinnati Reds used the #2 overall pick in the 2024 Major League Baseball draft to select Chase Burns out of Wake Forest. They then turned around and gave him the largest signing bonus in the history of the draft. With his junior season at Wake Forest and all of the skills he had shown, many expected him to be among the first players from the draft to reach the big leagues.

    The Reds haven’t been the most aggressive organization with someone like Burns just yet. By this point in the career of Paul Skenes he was already in the big leagues, and he began the year after he was drafted in Triple-A. Cincinnati started Burns in High-A where he spent just three weeks before joining Double-A Chattanooga.

    Things had been going quite well for Chase Burns with the Lookouts, but on Sunday afternoon he had the best start of his career. In what was his 6th start in Double-A he allowed one earned run in 5.0 innings while giving up just three hits, walking no one, and he struck out a career high 10 batters.

    Since being promoted to Double-A, Burns has made a mockery of the Southern League. He has walked just three batters in six outings and now has 45 strikeouts. His ERA is sitting at 1.86 in Double-A and opponents are hitting just .204/.226/.330 against him while striking out 43% of the time when they face him.

    Between his nine starts this season, he has a 2.21 ERA in 40.2 innings to go along with 65 strikeouts and just eight walks. In eight of those nine starts Burns has allowed zero or one earned run. In that other start he allowed three runs in 4.0 innings on a day in which he gave up two home runs in his final start with Dayton.

    Among pitchers in minor league baseball who have thrown at least 40.0 innings this season no one has a higher strikeout percentage than the 43.0% mark that Burns is currently sitting at. No one else is even in the 40’s. Only three other guys are even above the 35% mark. The two guys closest to Burns in the strikeout category had walk rates literally twice and three times as high as his current 5.3% mark. He is just on a different level of dominance.

    It’s tough to see what’s really left to keep him in Double-A for. He’s able to overwhelm the hitters and hasn’t had any sort of slip up along the way. The stuff is elite and he’s showing it on the mound. He’s doing that thing where a guy is kicking down the door. While the Reds certainly have a plan in place for Burns, they may need to push the accelerator a bit more given how he’s performing. There’s pitching well and then there’s five levels higher than that, and Chase Burns can barely see that level from where he’s at right now.

    Doug Gray
    Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another.

    Related Posts

    22 Responses

    2. Rhett Lowder. Anybody remember him? Zipped through the minors and made six or so starts in MLB his first year. Where is he now?

      The Reds starting pitching is not their biggest problem. So far Burns has been another five inning pitcher so what does he bring? Doesn’t take the burden off the BP. Reds starters have had a lot of low era starts. What they haven’t had a lot of is quality starts of six or more innings. Does Burns bring that? Hasn’t shown it so far.

      Why start his MLB service time when you haven’t got the consistent offense to support quality pitching, unless you are transitioning to starters going a planned five innings and then a trailer coming in for four innings, and you already have a solid starting staff? Even Bob Gibson spent more time in the minors.

      1. I don’t think he has topped 90 pitches in a start yet. They are limiting his innings now to try to get him to the end of the season at the innings mark they have set for him, which I imagine is somewhere around 130 IP

        1. Last year with Lowder and Petty, the promotions came after they started hitting 6 inning marks regularly, i think using that as a benchmark of mastering the level. Burns is different in just how much less he is challenged, however.

      2. The minors starters are all on pitch counts at every level.They typically average 5 innings a start & can sometimes go 6 with 7 being the max again all predicated on number of pitches and the high water mark is usually 80 pitches. It’s what the Reds do to try and preserve arms.

      3. I totally agree with you. Offense is feast or famine. Most games when we score a good amount of runs, the next few are damn near non-existent. Also out BP is a total train wreck. How did we not sweep The Cubs this past series. Up big both game that we lost and then bottom falls out. WTH?! Worse than last season I believe.

      4. Rhett did pretty well last year in the short amount of innings. I think hes just hurt this year. I’d circle back to that if he ends up blowing this year and ends up starting in the minors next year. I just dont think this is the best comp.

    4. Burns reminds me of EDLC, in being such an elite talent that he will be allowed to develop at the ML level more than others. Before the draft, BA had an article that compared his stuff to Skenes’. If not the Ted Lasso mustache.

    5. Has to have the conditioning to be able to throw 100 pitches in an outing before he is ready for big leagues. I don’t really care what he did a year or two years ago on college, in 2025 he is not there yet. Just maybe last year’s fast promotion has led to Lowder’s arm and body issues this season. Can’t compare that to Skenes as the Pirates were much more aggressive and conditioned him accordingly.

      1. Agree. And hitting 100 pitches once doesn’t count.

        I don’t deny Burns may well be too good for AA, but i don’t think there is any great hurry to promote him, except when shows he can do this for 6-7 innings, like Petty last year. He hasn’t even played a year of full season ball. That 140 game grind is a big step physically and mentally. There is too much rush to get Burns or whoever promoted quickly, for reasons that are as arbitrary as they are anything else. I always ask, for what? To get to the majors in your first year? How is that an organizational goal? It’s an individual goal or a fan goal. Or, to go get demoralized at GABP? It’s not as if Stewart or HRod or Burns will make a difference this year. I actually prefer they keep the AA team together at least through the first half, keep learning how to make a push to the playoffs.

      2. Coaches are taking him out. There is nothing that indicates he couldn’t do it if given the chance

        1. You are missing the point. He has to be built up in a planned way to develop arm strength, endurance and to master his pitches at the point of being fatigued and beyond, not to mention while facing the same batters multiple times in a game. This is standard, not an exception, even for an exceptional player.

          Pitch counts and innings limits exist for reasons. It doesn’t matter for one second that he can do it; of course he can. Many minor leaguers can hit 100 pitches or 6 innings. It matters that he does it consistently, over time, and in such a way as to build arm strength, effectiveness while doing so, and in a healthy way.

          Burns could be promoted tomorrow. He might well be for all anyone here knows. That’s not what is being discussed. What is being discussed is when and how. And only being built up to 5 innings at AA is not enough physically to be a starter in the Major Leagues, where the stress is significantly higher, and thus the risk of injury. Further, developmentally, what is also being said is that
          he should have to face and defeat minor league hitters at least three times through the order (18-21 batters). If he has yet to do that (as did Lowder by the way), the club will be borderline negligent in saying he is physically and developmentally ready to go to the majors.

          This is exactly what i mean by being arbitrary in wanting to see a player promoted — being promoted for reasons other than making a planned progression. It also might well be one of the primary reasons why Lodolo has yet to achieve his promise, being promoted after only 70 or so career minor league innings.

      1. I’m not in favor of using Burns in any high leverage, high stress situations as a rookie while also trying to transition from starting to relieving. I realize clubs have used long relief as a way to break starters in, but the benefits of messing with his progression by making him a temp closer just seem minimal compared to those of keeping him as a starter. Not to mention, he’d only be available once a week as a 3 inning reliever, which puts stress on the other relievers as well as the starters. And, after the huge error of moving Chapman to the bullpen without any cause at all, other than Dusty Baker’s whims, i just can’t see it worth the grief to a club that has far too much negativity.

        1. A 4, 5, or 6 run lead going into the 7th inning should not be a high stress situation. Alas, it is with the Reds, and perhaps it would not be with Burns. Also, depending on pitch count, it wouldn’t limit him to one appearance per week – more like twice a week.

          If he’s ready now (and what indicates he isn’t?) then how best can he help the team? Given their development history I’d have Lowder and Petty ahead of him as a starter, but if he can go 50-60 pitches every few days, let him spend the rest of this season in the pen. Spend the offseason and next spring ramping up to a rotation spot.

          To play to win, every inning counts, every pitch counts. They need to act like it does.

        2. I guess it depends on how closer is defined. I define it as high leverage, shorter appearances, and i don’t see any purpose for Burns in that role (not saying you do). Also, like i said, i can see breaking in a minor league starter via long relief, if done well. But based on how Ashcraft and Richardson were held back for almost a week after their 3 inning stints, i just assume they’d be cautious as heck with Burns, too. Probably more. So that’s blurry for me, especially with Richardson, for example, ready and waiting.

          And, in principle, i agree the minors can and should be used to strengthen the ML club. Where I differ, in the case of Burns (and to some degree Stewart, Arroyo and HRod) is in when and how. At this juncture, given the profound problems with the ML club, i am quickly seeing fewer and fewer reasons to move any AA players that aggressively. Injuries in the starting rotation could change that, like last year in pushing Lowder quickly. I suppose if Marte is out a very long time, Stewart could be given a chance. Or Arroyo, if EDLC gets hurt (HRod has a few more barriers in Fraley, Benson, Lux).

          Another scenario would be if we sell at the deadline (or otherwise move on from players). As it stands, they would have to move on from one of Martinez, Singer, or Lodolo, or move one to the pen, in order to make room for Burns as a starter. Martinez IMO being the most likely to be traded, being on an expiring contract.

          But with each passing failure at the ML level, i see fewer reasons to be aggressive with out better prospects, as opposed to staying on a steadier path and making sure, when they are called up, that they are ready. I just can’t say any of our top ten are truly ready or with any honesty that the situation warrants it.

          My preference if we moved Burns up this year would be as a starter, if his innings allow, or to be put into an exciting, winning situation. He could get his feet wet as a mop up man. But, again, why?

        3. I understand the concerns, and generally agree with them, but I read Doug’s article as making the case that Burns is simply in a different category. He may not be in Skenes class, but he’s closer to that than a typical progression.

          He’s certainly not going to get stuck in a long relief role, but could be used as one as he transitions. Into MLB. looks like Richardson is right at the edge of becoming a valuable long reliever, and I expect Ashcraft to get there as well.

          Right now, though, as in this week, they could use a talented 50-60 pitches and it seems like he’s the best available option, though Richardson may be back very soon in that role.

      2. I’m not at all opposed to him pitching in relief, I think people are more afraid of that now than they should be. I think its an excellent way to limit innings on a younger arm. Timing is everything though. In this current moment, Burns needs to be starting or throwing close to a starters load each outing to build his innings. If the team is in the hunt late and he’s one of the best options in the organization, then I promote him no questions asked, especially for a talent starved team. To each their own though, I don’t think he needs rushed to the big leagues by any means.

    7. He definitely has earned a promotion to AAA. The issue is that AAA probably won’t challenge him much more. A lot of Baseball people would tell you there’s more talent in AA than AAA, which is full of older players on the 40 man. Maybe you put him in the rotation and have Martinez be his backup after 4-5 innings?

    8. Hey Reds Minor League fans, we all know pitchers that throw first pitch strikes usually pitch more efficient and effective than ones that throw first pitch balls. Especially the second time through a batting order. Whats do you think a goal is for a starter?
      I think at least 6/9 fpks is 67%. But not less than 50%. With a batting order twice thats 10 extra pitches you dont have to throw if theyre strikes vs balls to 10/18 batters.
      First time through the order Burns threw only 3 first pitch strikes out of 9 batters for 33%. That got him in trouble the 2nd and they scored their run. The second time through the order he was 4/9 fpks. He threw 80 pitches to 20 batters in 5 innings for 16 pitches per inning. If he keeps that up as all young pitchers learn, in the bigs you need to pitch to contact and not try to blow pitches by every batter.
      Green is finding it hard and learned to throw a slider or change to make his FB look faster. Burns needs to learn to throw off speed pitches for strikes. Anyone attend or chart his game? Gameday doesn’t show what pitches he throws only the results. They used to.
      For example, of their strikeout videos, Schoenwetter threw 6 off speed strikes for his 8 strikeouts vs Burns threw 2 it looked like to me. Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? Anyone?
      Best start for Schoenwetter, hope its “Pretty Weather” the rest of his season as long as he throws fpks over 60%, which he did at 9/15.

      1. Last year in the big leagues the 1st pitch strike rate was 62%. This season Burns has thrown first pitch strikes 66% of the time.

        Gameday does not show the pitches thrown or the correct locations (or velocity) in the minor leagues with the exception of games in Triple-A, games in the Florida State League (except in Daytona) and a handful of rookie-level games when they are played in the big league stadiums rather than on the backfields.

        1. Thanks alot Doug. Maybe in Burns next start we can get more info from a Chattanooga fan in here that can report what they saw like %
          off-speed pitches for strikes? And how well they do that vs top prospect batters. Shows how well they rise to the challenge and maybe the best indicator if they pitch afraid or with complete confidence to “hit the mitt” (of the catchers target). Total “concentwation”.
          Schoenwetter threw mostly off-speed pitches for 8 K’s. Fantastic for his growth! Uncle Charlie! aka the curve! LOL. I used to pitch! 50 yrs ago! Forkball is now the splitter.

    Comments are closed.