Donald Lutz came into the 2011 season as an under the radar type of prospect, noting in the 2011 Prospect Guide that he “had solid plate discipline and some good raw power”. He was a little old for the levels he had played at, but didn’t grow up playing the game so his actual age doesn’t reflect his baseball age.
Lutz began the season off with an interesting April where he hit .301/.338/.589. The average and slugging were both good to see, but he walked just 3 times on the month and struck out 23 times. That was a bit of a concern and something to keep an eye on as he moved forward with the season. The good though was that he had 6 doubles and 5 home runs on the month, showing off some big time power.
In May, there was a big drop off for Lutz in terms of production as he hit just .232/.298/.358. He had 29 strikeouts and 8 walks, improving his plate discipline some, but he struck out at a higher rate than you would like to see and his power dropped off quite a bit with half as many doubles and 2 fewer home runs in 22 more at bats than he had in April. In the last four days of the month, he went into a bit of a tailspin going 1 for 15 to end the month, but he did draw four walks in that time frame.
June saw a bit of a rebound from May, though that was just on the surface. He hit .271/.338/.443 on the month with 6 walks and 29 strikeouts, but it came in just 70 at bats. That is a ton of strikeouts for that amount of time. The walk rate went up ever so slightly, but the power remained similar and the strikeouts remained a big concern.
July saw a much improved Lutz at the plate, even if some of the numbers didn’t bare it out on the surface. He would hit .274/.349/.526 on the month, with a big increase in power as he hit 5 doubles, two triples and 5 home runs in July. The largest improvement was in his plate discipline as he showed a solid walk rate with 8 free passes as well as cutting down on his strikeout rate with just 19 strikeouts in 95 at bats. During the month he would also have an amazing feat to mark down in the record books as he would hit for the cycle in four at bats, all before the sixth inning in a Dayton Dragons blowout win over Peoria as he would hit a home run in the first, a triple in the second, a double in the third and getting a single in the fifth inning.
In August and September, Lutz was absolutely on fire as he hit .386/.426/.538 over 132 combined at bats with 9 walks and 25 strikeouts. He again showed that he could lower his strikeout rate and continue to hit for plenty of power. His walk rate lowered on the month though. His hot bat helped Dayton round up the best record in the Midwest League and lead them into the playoffs as he completed his best year as a professional.
Overall Thoughts
Donald Lutz has some very impressive power, both now and a chance for plenty more in the future as he becomes a better hitter. Despite some improvements in his plate discipline in the second half of the season, I think that is the biggest concern with his game. He significantly cut down his strikeout rate in the second half of the season, striking out 25 times less than in the first half despite having 29 more at bats. His walk rate remained the same though and is well below average. There have been talks of attempting to get him more time in the outfield, despite his size he is an average to slightly below average runner right now. The Reds added him to the 40-man roster this offseason, meaning he has three options remaining before he will have to stick with the big league club. With his power, he will be a real interesting guy to follow moving forward, but his plate discipline seems like the thing that will ultimately make or break his chances.
Stats
| PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 506 | 85 | 140 | 23 | 3 | 20 | 75 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 125 | .301 | .358 | .492 | .850 |
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