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    Julian Aguiar (Photo: Redleg Nation Staff)
    Photo: Redleg Nation Staff

    2026 Cincinnati Reds #10 Prospect: Julian Aguiar – RHP

    Doug Gray 13

    The 2024 season was a good one for Julian Aguiar. He began in Double-A with Chattanooga and earned a midseason promotion up to Triple-A. Things went well enough with Louisville that he was called up to join the Cincinnati Reds late in the season and threw 31.2 innings with them. Unfortunately the season ended early for him as he was injured with less than two weeks remaining in the season and wound up needing Tommy John surgery.

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    For all 2025 Season Reviews and Scouting Reports – click here (these will come out during the week throughout the offseason).

    Julian Aguiar Scouting Report

    Position: Right-handed pitcher | B/T: L/R

    Height: 6′ 3″ | Weight: 180 lbs. | Acquired: 12th Round (2021 Draft) | Born: June 4, 2001

    Fastball | Aguiar brings a 4-seam fastball and a 2-seam fastball to the plate. Both pitches have above-average velocity, averaging nearly 95 MPH in 2024 when he was healthy and he touched 100 MPH during the season.

    Slider | A pitch that works in the low 80’s, the slider is an average to slightly-above average offering.

    Change Up | An above-average pitch that flashes plus at times.

    Curveball | A solid-average offering in the upper 70’s.

    Julian Aguiar wasn’t throwing nearly as hard when he was drafted as he was throwing right before he underwent Tommy John surgery. After hitting 100 MPH in Double-A, in 2024 he didn’t quite reach 97 MPH during his time in Triple-A or MLB later in the year.

    With the Reds in 2024 opposing hitters found success against his fastball as they slugged over .525 against both the 4-seamer and the sinker. He rarely threw his 2-seamer to lefties, but he mixes the two fastballs well against right-handed hitters. The curveball is thrown to lefties and almost never gets shown to a right-handed hitter. His slider is the opposite as he almost never throws it to left-handed hitters. The change up is something he uses to both groups, but he leans on it a lot more against lefties than righties. He will mix and match things up, but depending on which batters box the hitter is standing in really changes up how Aguiar will pitch to them.

    While in the minors Aguiar has shown outstanding control. But with that control he still struggled to put hitters away at times in 2024 and for the first time in his career his strikeout rate was below a batter per inning as he averaged just 7.3 strikeouts per 9-innings pitched between Chattanooga and Louisville, and only 5.4 in his 31.2 innings pitched in Cincinnati.

    In today’s game, most pitchers return from Tommy John surgery and it seems like they haven’t really missed a beat. But that isn’t always the case. Despite missing the entire 2025 season, Aguiar will begin 2026 as a 24-year-old, so while he did lose some time to injury it hasn’t set him back in terms of age/level.

    When he does get back on the mound he’s going to need to take that next step. While he doesn’t need to be a big strikeout pitcher, he is going to need to strike out more than five batters per 9-innings pitched if he’s going to have success in the big leagues.

    There’s a quality arsenal to work here that profiles as a starting pitcher, but if he can’t put away hitters more as a starter, a move to the bullpen could be another option that could allow him to focus his repertoire more and perhaps find a little extra velocity as he doesn’t have to pace himself quite as much.

    Stats

    Missed 2025 with Tommy John surgery

    Video (from 2024)

    Doug Gray
    Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another.

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    13 Responses

    2. Curious to see how Aguiar is post injury. Like Lowder, he too accrued an entire year of service time on the DL because the Reds brought them up at the end of the 2024 season just to fill innings and get experience and then got hurt. I have to assume both start in AAA to show they are healthy and back before we potentially waste a 2nd year on the DL for them.

      1. *IL*

        But I think Lowder will get a chance to make the big league club, where as Aguiar could – but maybe as a reliever. I don’t think Aguiar gets a chance to make the club as a starter as long as there aren’t multiple injuries. While I’d venture to say that Burns has the lead heading into the spring for the #5 spot, if Lowder pitches well and Burns has some struggles for whatever reason, I think you could see Lowder in the rotation and Burns in Triple-A. I just can’t see that same kind of path for Aguiar.

    3. Aguiar is basically found money if you consider his position when he was drafted. If he can throw strikes — and he has — a role similar to Ashcraft’s might be his 2026. That would still be a bargain for the Reds.

    4. Aguiar is definitely an international signing win. I see the Reds signed Dominican lhp Baldwin Moreno last week, which will most likely be their last international signing of the year. With the new signing season starting in less than a month has there been any information on whether Reds are connected to any of this years top newly eligible international free agents?

      1. He’s from L.A., but very much an excellent find for the Reds per JCU. Wonder why he wasn’t found as a HS pitcher.

        1. Aguiar was a mostly a 3B in high school and didn’t really start in earnest to pitch until JuCo.

          He is also a little like Tyler Mahle in that he didn’t get to his velocity until later in age and, more so, after being drafted.

      2. Yeah, he was born and raised in Long Beach, California. He was a 12th rounder, which if not an international-signing win, was still a win for the scouting and development team.

      3. Unless the rules have changed, the window is closed to sign players internationally right now. It won’t re-open until January 15th, even for players who were eligible to sign before then.

        But yes, the Reds are expected to sign Angel Nunez, who Baseball America has as the #5 guy on their “biggest expected signing bonus” board.

    5. He is 17 (3/23/2008, born in San Juan De La Maguana, Dominican Republic. Can’t imagine they could sign him outside the draft process if it wasn’t considered an international signing.

    6. The Guardians designated outfielder Jhonkensy Noel today. Might be worth a look in Spring Training. Valaika and Francona should be familiar with what needs to happen to get him on right track. I’ve seen him hit some shots in the limited games I’ve seen in Columbus.

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