2012 Minor League Full Season Preview

The Minor League season gets started this evening, so what better time to have a season preview than opening day?

Louisville Bats

The Bats official roster hasn’t been released yet and isn’t scheduled to be out until some point today. But, we do know the key figures who will be there. This team, unlike the past 3 years or so, will be very veteran heavy with only a few prospects sprinkled in. Of the position players, only Neftali Soto will play the season as a guy who will be younger than 25-years-old (he will be 23 this season). On the pitching side, relievers Nick Christiani and JJ Hoover will be 24-years-old. This will be one of the older teams in Louisville, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a chance to be a good team. There are some interesting arms on the pitching staff and several guys on the 40-man roster who will be starting position players. The starting rotation will include Jeff Francis (starting tonight), Andrew Brackman, Chad Reineke, Brett Tomko and Sean Gallagher.

Best Position Prospect

Neftali Soto is the youngest player on the team and his power potential will keep him as one of the more interesting guys to watch on this team. While the new Joey Votto contract extension makes his future with the Reds doubtful, it would be in the best interest for himself to just crush the ball and get other teams interested in his services. If he is able to tighten up his plate discipline a little bit, he has the potential to rocket up the prospect charts.

Best Pitching Prospect

J.J. Hoover wasn’t ranked in my past rankings given that he was a member of the Atlanta Braves organization just a few days ago, but his combination of stuff and results puts him at the top of the list for pitching prospects expected to be on the Bats roster when it is officially released tomorrow. He should see some time with the Reds before the end of the season and could be the first bullpen arm called upon from Louisville when one is needed.

Most interesting player to watch through the season

Andrew Brackman came over as a free agent after being released by the Yankees after last season. The Cincinnati product has a huge arm and from a pure stuff standpoint has two potentially plus pitches with his fastball and breaking ball. He has battled control issues for most of his college and professional career, but has said he made strides in that department over the offseason. If he can truly make a step forward with his control, he has the kind of arm that could make him a game changing reliever in the future.

Pensacola Blue Wahoos

This will be the first year for the Blue Wahoos as a professional team. They are opening up a new stadium (which means we don’t know how it will play, though given how most other Florida stadiums play, I am expecting it to be more of a pitchers park) and should have close to a packed house every night with season tickets being sold out. Their roster has several strong prospects on it, including several position and pitching prospects. There is also a mix of older guys who should be good contributors to the team, but probably aren’t going to do much as future Reds. The rotation for the Blue Wahoos (in alphabetical order) is: Daniel Corcino, Tim Crabbe, Curtis Partch, JC Sulbaran and Pedro Villarreal (starting tonight). The team should have good pitching, but the offense may be lacking some power that could make them one of the stronger offensive teams in the league.

Best Position Prospect

Didi Gregorius comes in ever so slightly ahead of Henry Rodriguez here. At shortstop he brings strong range and a plus arm to the position. At the plate he is still a work in progress, but the foundation is there with high contact rates, solid plate discipline, above-average speed and solid power potential that hasn’t made it to games on a consistent basis yet. The development of Gregorius and Rodriguez in 2012 could come into play with the decision on Brandon Phillips beyond this season.

Best Pitching Prospect

Daniel Corcino is at the top of this list thanks to an above-average to plus fastball (four seam, two seam and cutter according to the Futures game Pitch F/X data), above-average to plus slider and a good change up mixed in with a good ability to throw strikes. He skipped over Bakersfield, going from Dayton last season to Pensacola this year. It will be interesting to see how well he adjusts to the big gap in ability of the opposing hitters from 2011 to 2012.

Most interesting player to watch  through the season

JC Sulbaran is my breakout player of the year if I had to lay down money on just one guy. He has had his ups and downs since being drafted, but last year he saw his stuff take a jump forward as he added velocity to an already solid fastball. The reason I think he could be primed for a true break out though is that after battling with inconsistency with his control for several years, he was able to put up a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.33 over the final two months of the season in 2011. He has always had the stuff, so when we combine that it improved over the course of 2011 and his ability to throw strikes went from solid to outstanding as the season went along, he could vault himself into national prospect rankings in 2012.

Bakersfield Blaze

The Blaze will mark their second season as a Reds affiliate by inheriting most of the 2011 Dayton Dragons team which had the best record in the Midwest League. The roster is flush with prospects worth watching on both sides of the ball. The Blaze will be home to seven of the Reds Top 20 prospects (Top 20 after the offseason trades – 5 position players and 2 pitchers) to start the season and even beyond that there are several good players filling out the roster. The team should be very strong as long as they remain healthy and relatively together as a team (ie: half of the starters don’t get promoted in July). The starting rotation (in alphabetical order) is likely to be: Tony Cingrani, Kyle Lotzkar, Brian Pearl, Daniel Renken (starting tonight) and Josh Smith.

Best Position Prospect

Yorman Rodriguez was my 3rd ranked prospect after last season behind Devin Mesoraco and Daniel Corcino, so he is the easy choice here. While most of his ranking is based upon tools rather than production, he will be among the youngest players in the league at 19-years-old and has the tools to match just about anyone in the system. He has good speed, a strong arm, a good hit tool and easy power potential. That hasn’t all translated to the games yet, though you will see flashes of it at times. Given his age, he isn’t likely to be the best player on the team, but I would be surprised if someone from the team were to pass him up as far as prospect value goes.

Best Pitching Prospect

Kyle Lotzkar gets the nod ever so slightly over Tony Cingrani here. Lotzkar has an above-average fastball that he mixes with a good curveball and a change up. He has had trouble staying healthy throughout his career, but with newer (and cleaner) mechanics things could be taking a turn for the better. He has the stuff to be a successful pitcher, staying healthy and gaining more experience could help him make the Reds look smart for adding him to the 40-man roster this past offseason.

Most interesting player to watch through the season

There are about five guys that I want to list here for different reasons, but I will toss out the guy who is probably least known: Brian Pearl. He relieved briefly in college, throwing a combined 11.1 innings in his first two seasons while being primarily a position player before taking on the closer’s role his junior season. The Reds moved him to the rotation the year after he was drafted and first reports on his stuff were outstanding. Unfortunately he went down with an arm injury and missed the next 14 months before coming back last year as a reliever. Before the injury Pearl was throwing his fastball in the low 90’s and topping out of 96 MPH, with a solid slider that flashed plus potential and a good change up. If he can return to that, he could be another in a line of big arms for the Reds.

Dayton Dragons

The Dayton Dragons finished the 2011 season with the best record in the Midwest League, so repeating the success of the 2011 team will be tough to do. The roster is a mix of good potential and organizational guys. Most of the guys will be coming from the 2011 Billings Mustangs (44-32) and the AZL Reds (31-25), so the team has a chance to put together a winner if those squads tell us anything about the talent they have compared to their counterparts. The starting rotation to begin the season will consist of (in alphabetical order): Justice French (starting tonight), Stalin Gerson, Carlos Gonzalez, Radhames Quezada and Tanner Robles.

Best Position Prospect

Junior Arias will be the third baseman for the Dragons and the 20-year-old is also the best position prospect on the team. He has strong offensive tools, with good power now and potentially a lot more to come as well as a good hit tool. He has struggled with plate discipline in his career, which hasn’t allowed his hitting tools to play to their grades yet. Defensively he is raw as a recent convert to third base.

Best Pitching Prospect

Radhames Quezada gets the nod here. He throws a low 90’s fastball that can reach up to 95 MPH and he mixes it with a good change up that he uses as hit put away pitch. He has shown a good ability to throw strikes. He doesn’t have the smoothest mechanics, but there don’t seem to be any injury concerns within his mechanics.

Most interesting player to watch through the season

Kyle Waldrop has an interesting array of tools to his name. He is a good runner and has some interesting power potential. He really struggled with his plate discipline last season, drawing 10 walks to 65 strikeouts for Billings. That is a ratio that must be improved upon if he is going to succeed and get the most out of his tools. How his plate discipline develops throughout the season is what makes Waldrop the most interesting guy to watch on the team in my opinion.

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