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    Reds MiLB Notebook: Luke Hayden brings the heat in Dayton

    Doug Gray 13

    Last night the Dayton Dragons picked up a 7-4 win over Lake County. Unlike a few of the previous games played in Lansing, Michigan or in Dayton, it was a warm one. And with the heat it was starting pitcher Luke Hayden who was bringing the heat from the mound.

    In the Dragons first four games of the year no pitcher on their staff had hit 96 MPH. Reliever Brody Jessee had the top mark at 95.8 MPH. That no longer stood as the highest velocity for a Dragons pitcher after the first pitch of last night’s game as Hayden hit 96.4 MPH. He topped that quite a bit on the night, too.

    When Hayden was drafted he was up to 96 MPH while at Indiana State. Last night saw him top out at 98.8 MPH and he was sitting 96-98 early, but that dropped by about a MPH after the 1st inning.

    Control was a bit of an issue for Luke Hayden while in college – he had 90 walks in 129.1 innings pitched. He only pitched in 5.0 innings in his pro debut after the draft in 2024. But last year he spent the entire season with Dayton and the ability to throw strikes on a consistent basis showed up there, too. He had 72 walks in 101.1 innings. Still, the Cincinnati Reds saw enough that they liked to send him to the Arizona Fall League. Things didn’t go as well as anyone would have hoped as he pitched in four games and walked 10 batters with one strikeout and recorded just six total outs.

    Last night saw Hayden walk three batters in his 4.0 innings as he threw 42 strikes out of 72 pitches. That’s a 58% strike rate. The average rate of strikes thrown in the big leagues hovers between 62% and 63% in a given year. A few more strikes per outing could get Hayden to where he likely needs to be in this regard.

    As a starting pitcher he’s going to need to find the strikezone a bit more. If he eventually winds up in the bullpen then there’s a little more wiggle room in terms of how many walks you can typically get away with but he’s still likely going to need to cut down on those as a reliever, too. But in the bullpen pitchers can usually shrink their repertoire and eliminate a pitch and focus more on fewer ones and that can at times help improve guys ability to throw more strikes.

    Doug Gray
    Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another.

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    13 Responses

    2. Really surprised Hayden is back in Dayton. He had a descent year in ‘25 and then went to AFL. Figured they would move him up faster.

      1. I would assume it’s the walks that are holding him back. Might have a directive of “get the walks down and we’ll move you up”.

    3. Did anyone see Acuna and get a read on what he was throwing? I was watching but there was almost no commentary on his pitches other than “fastball” or “offspeed.”

      In particular, I was wondering about a changeup, as it sure looked like he was throwing a very good one, similar to the one Petty is throwing this year. But he was also locating what looked like a slider in the same spots. Either way, it was effective.

    4. Stewart up to 14th on the BA Top 100, but Duno is at 70 and no Lowder, who as of today still has rookie status.

      So, in a few more at bats for Sal, there is a decent chance we will have one Top 100 prospect. Lewis, i get. Hall, too. Sort if. But, with some of the names ahead of Duno and no Lowder, is BA trying to make a point?

      1. 31 more at bats for Sal and he is a prospect no more. Then we’re down to one. I would contend that Hector Rodriguez should be one, but I doubt BA feels the same.

        2. It shows at least some of the risk taking Hall at 9th overall last year.

          Carlson, taken 10th, is at 82, Arnold, 11th is 37th, and Parker, 8th is at 58. Hall is probably in the 150-175 range given the concerns with his hitting, even with his speed and defense.

      1. Don’t always trust what the pitches are labeled as for minor league guys without digging deeper (if you can). Looking at the data – the system was labeling some of his change ups as sinkers and some of his sliders as cutters.

        He was fastball heavy, but he threw two change ups in the 2nd inning (everything else was a fastball in the first two innings). In the 3rd inning he threw two more change ups and two sliders.

        On the night he had 16 change ups and 3 sliders.

        1. Yeah, I went through gameday summary was looking at velocity and not distinguishing between high velo 4 seamers and sinkers, then the low velo pitches. It was mostly watching the game and saying, This guy is throwing a lot of fastballs really hard and lots of them.

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