Game Breakdown: Robert Stephenson

Season Stats

Tm	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	BF	WHIP	K/BB
Billings	1	0	2.05	30.2	22	2	8	37	123	0.98	4.6
Dayton	1	0	0.00	5.0	1	0	2	6	20	0.60	3.0
Total	2	0	1.77	35.2	23	2	10	43	143	0.93	4.3

Scouting Background

Robert Stephenson throws a fastball up to 101 MPH, though he usually sits in that 94-97 MPH range. He throws a curveball in the 77-80 MPH range that is a plus pitch that has two plane break on it that he uses as his out pitch. The change up is his third pitch and he doesn’t use it as much as his curveball, but it works in the mid 80’s and is a solid pitch.

Game Information

For this game I looked at the first start that Stephenson made for the Dayton Dragons in Midland, Michigan against the Great Lakes Loons. He threw 5 innings with just 1 hit allowed, an unearned run, two walks and he struck out 6 batters while being limited to 70 pitches, though he only needed 65. You can see the box score for the game here.

Game Breakdown

Here is the pitch by pitch breakdown of the game. There may be a few change ups that are classified as fastballs, but the announcer was pretty good at mentioning velocities, so it isn’t likely a big issue.

Pitch	Type	Target?	Result	Position	Notes
1	FB	Hit	Called K	Low Middle	96 MPH
2	FB	Hit	Foul	Low Outside	97 MPH
3	CV	Hit	Swing K	Low Middle	Strikeout
4	FB	Missed	Ball	Inside dirt
5	FB	Missed	Ball	Middle dirt
6	FB	Missed	Swing K	Low Inside	101 MPH
7	FB	Hit	Foul	Low Outside	97 MPH
8	FB	Hit	Swing K	Low Middle	94 MPH – Strikeout
9	FB	Missed	Ball	Middle Outside	99 MPH
10	FB	Hit	Called K	Middle Outside
11	FB	Missed	Ball	Low Middle
12	FB	Hit	Foul	Middle Inside
13	CV	Hit	Called K	Low Outside	Strikeout
14	FB	Missed	Ball	Outside dirt
15	FB	Missed	Ball	Middle High
16	FB	Missed	Ball	Middle Inside
17	FB	Missed	Called K	Low Inside
18	FB	Hit	Foul	Low Outside
19	FB	Missed	Ball	Outside dirt	Walk
20	FB	Hit	FB to CF	Outside low	Fly out to CF
21	FB	Hit	Foul	Inside Low
22	CV	Hit	Called K	Outside low
23	CV	Missed	Ball	Outside low
24	CV	Missed	Swing K	Outside Low	Strikeout
25	FB	Hit	Foul	Middle Low
26	FB	Hit	Swing K	Middle Up
27	FB	Hit	FB to CF	Middle Up	Fly out to CF
28	FB	Missed	Ball	Inside Low
29	FB	Hit	Foul	Inside Middle
30	FB	Missed	Ball	Outside Low
31	FB	Missed	Ball	Outside Middle
32	FB	Hit	Foul	Middle Inside
33	CV	Missed	Ball	Low Outside	Walk
34	FB	Missed	Ball	Outside Low
35	FB	Missed	Foul	Middle Low
36	FB	Hit	GB to SS	Middle Inside	Force out at 2B
37	FB	Hit	FB to LF	Middle Inside	Fly out to LF
38	FB	Missed	FB to CF	Middle Outside	Fly out to CF
39	FB	Hit	Swing K	Low Outside	94 MPH
40	CH	Missed	Swing K	Low Outside	85 MPH
41	CV	Hit	Foul	Low Inside
42	CH	Hit	Swing K	Low Outside	Strikeout
43	FB	Missed	Ball	Low Inside	95 MPH
44	CV	Missed	Ball	Low Outside
45	FB	Hit	GB to CF	Middle Middle	Single to CF
46	FB	Hit	Ball	Low Outside
47	FB	Hit	FB to LF	Middle Inside	Fly out to LF
48	CV	Hit	Foul	Middle Low
49	CV	Missed	Swing K	Low Outside
50	CV	Hit	Foul	Middle Inside	Broken bat
51	FB	Hit	Foul	Middle Inside	95 MPH
52	CV	Missed	Ball	Low Outside	Stolen base on pitch
53	CV	Hit	GB to 3B	Low Outside	Throwing Error – Unearned Run
54	FB	Missed	Ball	Low Inside
55	FB	Missed	GB to 1B	Low Outside	Ground out to 1B
56	FB	Missed	HBP	Middle Inside	Hit Batter
57	FB	Missed	Ball	Middle High	92 MPH
58	FB	Hit	Called K	Low Outside
59	FB	Missed	FB to LF	Low Inside	Fly out to LF
60	FB	Missed	Ball	High Outside
61	FB	Hit	GB to SS	Low Inside	Ground out to SS
62	FB	Hit	Ball	Middle Outside	94 MPH
63	FB	Hit	Foul	Low Outside
64	CH	Hit	Called K	Middle Outside
65	CV	Hit	Called K	Low Outside	Strikeout

Statistical Breakdown

Pitch	Selection	Strike Rate	Ball	Called K	Swing K	Foul	In Play
Fastball	73%	60%	18	4	4	11	10
Curveball	22%	71%	4	3	3	3	1
Change up	5%	100%	0	1	2	0	0

Overall Impressions

Having watched this game twice now, once when it was happening and now when I went back to chart it, I have to admit that I am not really sure if Stephenson or Daniel Corcino is our best pitching prospect, but I really like the fact that I am unsure about it. With the amount of strikeouts and the few walks in Billings, I will admit that I was a bit surprised by the fastball control of Stephenson. Of the 48 fastballs that he threw, he missed the target on 23 of them. His stuff was simply overpowering though and it was close enough to the zone that guys weren’t able to do much to lay off anything close. His curveball is already a plus pitch with two plane break. He can locate it well already and has plenty of confidence to throw it inside, outside and in just about any count. While he didn’t throw the change up much, it was a good looking pitch with some fade/sink to it. Stephenson is still a bit more raw than you would think based on his numbers in Billings, at least he was in this outing, but his stuff is unquestionably the best of any pitcher in the Reds system right now and I am not sure that it is really that close. He admitted to overthrowing a bit early in the game due to his nervousness, so it will be interesting to see him again later this week in Dayton in person to see how he does in his second start at a new level. Overall he clearly has ace potential and a very special arm. Improving his fastball control could be a key for him though, but like most 19 year olds, that is something they all need to work on.

Video (not from the start above)

The Cincinnati Reds prospect that I believed in the most

Reds reliever Robert Stephenson’s slider is making a difference