Donald Lutz hit for the cycle last night and added an extra double just for good measure. The home run that he hit looked like it left the stadium down the right field line in Jacksonville. For the season, the big left handed hitter has a line of .362/.422/.724 with five doubles, two triples and four home runs in just 15 games.
In the previous two seasons in Pensacola (in a total of 420 plate appearances between the two years) he hit in the .240’s with on-base percentages of .315 and .318 while slugging .410 between the two season. He also spent some time in the big leagues, though playing time was minimal as he hit .241/.254/.310 in 59 plate appearances over 34 games from the end of April until the end of June.
While we are still quite early in the minor league season, let’s take a look at how the parts of three seasons in Double-A stack up against each other when it comes to the peripheral stats.
| Year | BB% | K% | IsoP | BABIP |
| 2012 | 7.9% | 19.4% | .147 | .277 |
| 2013 | 7.5% | 22.0% | .179 | .293 |
| 2014 | 7.8% | 20.3% | .362 | .415 |
Realistically, there is very little difference in his walk rate or strikeout rate. We do see two huge differences though. The first one is in Isolated Power where he has gone from so-so, to solid to out of this world over the three year stretch. While Lutz has some of the best raw power in the system, a .362 Isolated Power is not likely sustainable. Of course, if that number were to drop 150 points, it would still be well above-average. The other stat that is seeing big gains is the BABIP, where t is up to .415. That is also rather unsustainable over the long haul. In the short term, with how hard Lutz has been hitting the ball, it wouldn’t surprise me if that is his true BABIP range for now, but it will come down.
What does this tell us? Well, the first is that Lutz isn’t going to keep hitting .362 or slugging .724. I am sure that no one surprised to learn that. The guys who could do that are inner circle Hall of Famers. What is good to see though is that the power is way up. As noted, Lutz has some of the best raw power in the system. His bat is incredibly quick and he is STRONG. Groundballs are down for Lutz, while fly balls and line drives are up. Small sample size of course, but for a guy with big time power, getting the ball off of the ground is a good thing.
At 25-years-old and a spot on the 40-man roster, if Lutz keeps it going much longer, it wouldn’t be overly surprising if he found himself in Louisville playing with the Bats at some point before May is over.