Today I am going to discuss why I think a few players could be primed to break out this season. Last spring I felt really good that Mesoraco was on his way to breaking out, and even I didn’t see what he did coming in the way that it did. I don’t feel nearly as confident this season about anyone as I did last season about Mesoraco. With that said, I will say why I think there is a chance these guys break out and why I think they could also remain at a similar level to what they were before this season.
Didi Gregorius – SS
Why he could break out
Gregorius is a very toolsy player. Defensively he has above average range and an above average arm along with excellent actions at the position. Offensively, there is potential for him to be an good hitter. He has the raw power to be a 10-15 HR hitter and his contact rates are very strong. While I want to temper this all because he will be playing in a hitters paradise (the league is one of the most hitter friendly ones in the minors – think of it like a Coors Field type effect at most of the stadiums), which could make it tough to truly tell if a breakout is real, the combination of lots of contact and power potential at the shortstop position could lead to Gregorius showing off some good skills as well as good numbers in 2011.
Why he could remain similar to 2010
At the plate he still seems content at times to simply put the ball in play rather than swing for the extra base hit. If he continues that this season and his power development doesn’t start to show up, he could remain a similar player (adjusted stats for the league at least) that he was in 2010.
Josh Ravin – RHP
Why he could break out
I have always been a Josh Ravin fan. I have always liked the stuff, even though he has had some struggles with injuries and control in the past. His arm is quite good. Stuff wise, his fastball and change up are solid pitches and I really like his curveball. The stuff, in my opinion, is there and ready for the break out. Toss in that he has dealt with some injuries over the last two seasons and if he is fully healthy it could lead to more consistency in his stuff and the fact that he has shown improvement over that time despite the issues, I believe this could be the year that he takes a big leap forward.
Why he could remain similar to 2010
Ravin has showed flashes in the past as well and has yet to make that full on break through, being limited by his control from time to time as well as injuries. While he hasn’t found himself with a serious injury in his career, he has been plagued by things here and there and it could happen again and leave him at a similar point as he was in during 2010.
Felix Perez – OF
Why he could break out
Perez is a bit of a wildcard here because of his age. He doesn’t exactly fit the profile for a guy who will break out because he is an older guy, but I am listing him because I believe that a lot of people look at his AA stat line and think he is much worse than I believe he is. I believe he will have much more success this season than he did in AA last year because he struggled coming back from an oblique issue for about two weeks and when that was coupled with a small sample size in AA it really hurt his overall numbers. Outside of that two week stretch, Perez hit the ball very well all season long. I like his swing and his bat speed and I believe his game is fairly solid all the way around.
Why he could remain similar to 2010
Maybe the upper minor leagues will be a little too much. I looked at the stats and saw that he really only struggled when he came back from the oblique injury for a short period of time, but perhaps that was just a coincidence and the small sample size led to just the normal ups and downs.
Ryan LaMarre – OF
Why he could break out
While LaMarre is viewed as a solid prospect, much like Gregorius, his tools are viewed to be much better than his current production. Most guys directly out of college for the Reds don’t go straight to Dayton, but LaMarre did and he more than held his own. Last spring he injured his thumb while in college and it may have held his bat back a little bit during the 2010 season, being further removed from the injury could help it play up some. The biggest thing could be the further development of his power, which scouts tend to like quite a bit. With a decent approach, tons of speed, good defense and power that develops LaMarre could go from a good prospect to a very good one with a good showing this year.
Why he could remain similar to 2010
Perhaps the thumb injury didn’t cause any long term issues in the 2010 season, so being removed from the injury won’t cause a bounce back. His power may not develop as quickly and it could lead to him being quite similar to what he showed in Dayton during the 2010 season (adjusted for the league of course).
JC Sulbaran – RHP
Why he could break out
Sulbaran has strong stuff. His fastball and change up can be good and he can bury hitters with a very good curveball at times. Attitude and a lack of maturity has been a knock on Sulbaran the last few years, but he will begin the 2011 season as a 21 year old with two full seasons under his belt. In 2010 he took a step forward with controlling the long ball better than he had previously. If he can couple a little better control and some maturity that helps him focus better on the game he could really break out and use his talents to their full abilities.
Why he could remain similar to 2010
As noted, a lack of focus and maturity has been a knock on him for a while. Perhaps he isn’t quite there yet to take that next step mentally and it could lead to him being pretty similar to 2010 where he can show some flashes, but overall struggles over the full season.