This is the first types of these articles that I hope to do every two weeks or so throughout the season. The first one is on arguably the best pitcher in the Midwest League this season, Josh Smith. Smith leads the league in strikeouts by 13 (over teammate Daniel Renken and by 14 over teammate Daniel Corcino) and also boasts an ERA of 1.78 on the year.
Scouting background
Pitches: Fastball, curveball and change up. His fastball as a starter works 89-91 and can touch 93 at times. As a reliever he worked slightly higher than that (2010). His curveball is tight with good break that he can throw anywhere from the low 70’s to about 81 MPH. It is an above average pitch today and is a legit out pitch. His change up seems like a solid pitch that he throws in the upper 70’s.
Mechanics: Smith’s mechanics looked a little cleaner than I recalled them being out of the bullpen in 2010, but I still wonder if they are conducive to starting in the long run.
Game information
The game that I observed from Josh Smith was from April 23, 2011 against the Great Lakes Loons. Smith threw 6 shutout innings with just 2 hits allowed, no walks and he struck out 4 batters. You can see the box score for the game here.
Game breakdown
Here is the pitch by pitch breakdown of the game:
| Pitch | Type | Target? | Result | Position | Notes |
| 1 | FB | Hit | Called strike | Low, middle | |
| 2 | FB | Hit | Ball | Low, in | |
| 3 | FB | Miss | Foul | Low, in | |
| 4 | CV | Hit | Swinging strike | Low, outside corner | |
| 5 | FB | Miss | Ball | Low, way in | |
| 6 | FB | Miss | Ball | Low, way in | |
| 7 | CH | Hit | Double | Middle, Middle | |
| 8 | FB | Hit | Called strike | Middle, outside corner | |
| 9 | FB | Miss | Ball | Low, in | |
| 10 | CV | Miss | Ball | Low, in | |
| 11 | CH | Hit | Ground out, 1B | Middle, in | May have been poor CV |
| 12 | FB | Miss | Ball | Low, outside | |
| 13 | CV | Hit | Called strike | Low, outside corner | |
| 14 | FB | Miss | Long foul ball | Up, Middle | |
| 15 | CV | Hit | Foul | Middle, Middle | |
| 16 | CV | Miss | Ball in dirt | Way low, outside corner | |
| 17 | FB | Miss | Ball | Up, in | |
| 18 | CV | Hit | Foul | Low, outside corner | |
| 19 | CV | Miss | Long foul ball | Middle, in | |
| 20 | FB | Hit | Foul | Low, outside corner | |
| 21 | CH | Miss | Swinging strike | High, outside corner | May have been poor CV |
| 22 | FB | Hit | Called strike | Low, in | |
| 23 | CH | Miss | Swinging strike | Low, outside corner | |
| 24 | FB | Hit | Foul | Low, in | |
| 25 | CH | Hit | Triple | Low, outside corner | Misplay by Jaren Matthews |
| 26 | Missed | Bad | Camera | Work | Foul Ball |
| 27 | FB | Hit | Ball | Middle, Outside | |
| 28 | CV | Miss | Ball | Low, outside | |
| 29 | CV | Miss | Called strike | Low, inside corner | |
| 30 | CV | Miss | Ground out, 1B | Low, inside corner | |
| 31 | FB | Hit | Fly out, LF | Low, outside corner | |
| 32 | FB | Miss | Called strike | Low, inside corner | |
| 33 | FB | Miss | Ball | Low, way in | |
| 34 | CH | Miss | Check Swing K | Way low, inside | |
| 35 | CV | Miss | Foul | Low, inside corner | |
| 36 | FB | Miss | Ball | Middle, inside | |
| 37 | CV | Hit | Foul | Middle, outside corner | |
| 38 | FB | Miss | Ball | Middle, inside | |
| 39 | FB | Miss | Pop up, 2B | Middle, inside | |
| 40 | FB | Hit | Called strike | Low, outside corner | |
| 41 | FB | Hit | Fly out, RF | Low, middle | |
| 42 | CV | Miss | Ball | Middle, out | |
| 43 | FB | Hit | Foul | Low, middle | |
| 44 | FB | Miss | Foul | Low, middle | |
| 45 | CV | Hit | Ground out, 1B | Low, outside corner | |
| 46 | FB | Hit | Fly out, LF | Middle, outside | |
| 47 | CH | Miss | Swinging strike | Low, inside corner | |
| 48 | CV | Miss | Long foul ball | Up, inside | |
| 49 | CV | Hit | Fly ball, CF | Low, middle | |
| 50 | CV | Miss | Ball in dirt | Very low, outside | |
| 51 | FB | Miss | Ball | Middle, outside | |
| 52 | FB | Miss | Fly ball, CF | Middle, outside corner | |
| 53 | FB | Hit | Pop up, SS | Inside, high | |
| 54 | CV | Hit | Called strike | Low, outside corner | |
| 55 | CV | Miss | Ball | low, way outside | |
| 56 | FB | Miss | Ball | High, outside | |
| 57 | FB | Hit | Fly Ball, RF | Middle, outside corner | |
| 58 | FB | Hit | Called strike | Low, outside corner | |
| 59 | CV | Hit | Called strike | low, outside corner | |
| 60 | FB | Miss | Ball | High, outside | |
| 61 | CV | Hit | Ground out, 1B | Low, outside corner | |
| 62 | CV | Miss | Strike | Low, outside corner | |
| 63 | FB | Miss | Ball | Low, middle | |
| 64 | FB | Miss | Ball | Low, way inside | |
| 65 | FB | Miss | Ground out, 1B | Middle, inside | |
| 66 | FB | Hit | Called strike | Middle, outside corner | |
| 67 | CV | Hit | Called strike | Low, outside corner | |
| 68 | CV | Hit | Ball | Low, outside corner | |
| 69 | CV | Hit | Swinging strike | Low, outside | |
| 70 | FB | Miss | Fly ball, LF | Middle, outside | |
| 71 | FB | Hit | Called strike | Middle, outside | |
| 72 | CV | Hit | Called strike | Low, outside corner | |
| 73 | CH | Miss | Ball | Low, outside | |
| 74 | CV | Hit | Called strike | Low, middle |
Statistical breakdown
| Pitch | Selection | Pitch | Strike Rate | |
| Fastball | 52.1% | Fastball | 60.5% | |
| Curveball | 37.0% | Curveball | 74.1% | |
| Change Up | 11.0% | Change Up | 87.5% |
| Ball | Called K | Swing K | Foul | In play | |
| Pitch | |||||
| Fastball | 15 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| Curveball | 7 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Change Up | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Overall observations
Josh Smith may not have his projection match his numbers he is posting, but I think he has a Major League arm if he can remain healthy. He should be the first pitcher promoted from Dayton to Bakersfield given his age and stuff. His curveball is simply overmatching nearly every hitter in the league and his control is quite good for this level as well. I am still not sure if he will remain a starter as he reaches the top of the ladder, but he has the stuff to be a quality reliever as well.
I would like to do articles similar to this throughout the season. But, I will only be able to do them for now with guys on the Dayton Dragons or the Louisville Bats (or who have made a start for the Bats at this point). I would also do articles on hitters over a series. So if you have a suggestion for a hitter or pitcher who you would like me to cover next, let me know. If you have any other things you would like for me to add into these types of posts for a pitcher, let me know and I will try to include it in the next one.