Today I wanted to look at three guys who have their stock up and three guys who have their stock down the most in the system and try to get into why.
Stock up
Daniel Corcino
In the 2011 Prospect Book (hey, it’s now only $9.99 at the link above if you don’t have one) I wrote this about Corcino in regards to his comparison to Johnny Cueto:
If he can hone in his control some as he matures, the Johnny Cueto comparisons could really begin to make sense
Well here we are in June of the next season and sure enough, Corcino has shown outstanding control so far this season and he has flat out dominated the Midwest League for Dayton. His fastball may even have added a tick of velocity this season. His combination of both stuff and results has vaulted him from #25 in the last prospect rankings into a guy who is probably the Reds top pitching prospect at this point.
Tucker Barnhart
Barnhart has gone to Dayton this season and he has shown off strong defensive tools and despite going from a hitters league to a pitchers league he has improved as a hitter. Right now he is likely the strongest defender at catcher in the entire league who is throwing out an incredible 49% of attempted base stealers. At the plate, he is showing more power this season than he did last year, which is quite impressive given the drastic differences in the league he moved to. He is also continuing to show his strong plate discipline and contact abilities from both sides of the plate. I had him ranked #30 heading into the season, but a rough guess probably puts him right inside the top 20 at this point.
Zack Cozart
It was tough to decide between two guys here, because I rated both guys fairly well last year and don’t think their overall ranking has changed much, but I do think that both have improved their stock quite a bit. Cozart wound up getting the nod because he is an every day player. The main reason I chose him was the last line of the 2011 Prospect Book in his write up:
The key for Cozart will be to keep his bat at an acceptable level and he could become a quality starting shortstop.
2011 rolled around and he immediately slumped in a bad way. He hit just .225 in April, but since then he has arguably been the best hitter in the system. An absolute month and a half tear through the International League has Cozart beating down the door to Cincinnati who is having shortstop issues as it is, but Cozart’s .332/.376/.508 line tells the story of a guy who has made some serious adjustments this season to lower his strikeout rate by about 30% from his 2010 rate while maintaining good power. Right now I think it would be pretty hard to argue that Cozart isn’t the Reds best option at shortstop.
Stock down
Billy Hamilton
While Billy Hamilton’s 50 steals are just an incredible feat to see at this point in the season, the rest of his game has shown to be quite a bit more raw than his 2010 season would have led you to believe. Hamilton has really struggled to hit in 2011 after hitting .318 for Billings last season. Right now he has seen his OPS drop .233 points from last year. While the tools are clearly still there if you watch him long enough, he is struggling with pitch recognition, swing mechanics and in the field with his throwing mechanics that have led to 22 errors so far this season and a .909 fielding percentage. While he is still a Top 10 prospect because of the tools and potential, he isn’t nearly as ready as it appeared that he was.
Donnie Joseph
In 2010 Donnie Joseph was an absolute dominant force for the team he was playing for at the time, posting a 2.08 ERA with 103 strikeouts and 25 walks in 65 innings pitched. However there was a little more beyond the numbers that caused me to pause a little after watching him during the season and I wrote about it in the 2011 Prospect Book which said:
The one thing that could slow down his rise is his inconsistency in throwing his slider for strikes at times. More advanced hitters were able to lay off of the pitch when it was clearly out of the zone.
This season Joseph is showing strong strikeout numbers again and a similar walk rate, but he is getting hit around a lot. His ERA sits at 8.46 and he has allowed 36 hits in 27.2 innings pitched. After asking around some who see him often, it would seem that what I saw last year is catching up with him as he is seeing more advanced hitters. The truly advanced hitters are laying off of his slider and sitting on his fastball and while his fastball is actually up in velocity, when guys can sit on it they can hit it. It is an interesting case because from a scouting his pitches sense, Joseph has actually improved his stock when simply looking at the raw ability of his pitches, but his results and inability to consistently throw his slider in the zone has pushed his stock in the opposite direction.
Yorman Rodriguez
Much like Billy Hamilton, Yorman Rodriguez hit very well in Billings but has really struggled for Dayton. Unlike Hamilton though, it was more apparent that Rodriguez was still quite raw with his skills despite having success in Billings. Even with that said, Rodriguez has seen his OPS lowered by .172 points with the jump to Dayton. At the plate he seems like a different player, with his walk rate and strikeout rate both nearly doubling from what he showed in Billings. While the improved walk rate is a very good sign to see, going from a 16% strikeout rate to a 30% strikeout rate is not a good sign. He was rated as the #4 prospect coming into the season, and while his age and tools are going to very likely keep him in the top 10 he has seen his stock lowered quite a bit going from the first group of prospects and falling clearly into the second or maybe even third group of prospects.