There is a lot to cover in this update, so I may be all over the place. If so, just try to stay with me.
The Billings Mustangs (through Wednesday night) starting rotation has had some extreme groundball pitching so far this season. Robert Stephenson has a 65% groundball rate through two starts. Sal Romano has an incredibly 85% groundball rate through his first two starts. Drew Cisco is sitting at a 57% groundball rate through his first two starts of the year. Ismael Guillon is on the other side of 50% with his 47% rate (still above average) in his 8 innings (1 start, but both outings have gone 4 innings). The infield for the Mustangs must really be on their toes for these starters. Lots and lots of grounders. It is clearly early on, but it is impressive to see either way.
Drew Hayes skipped over High-A this offseason, going straight from Dayton in 2011 to Pensacola in 2012. He struggled mightily in April with a 6.17 ERA. However since then he has made the adjustment and has a 2.42 ERA since the start of May, stretching 22.1 innings pitched.
While this isn’t directly Reds related, with all of the steals Billy Hamilton is racking up, it is worth looking at. Beyond the Box Score looks at the value added in the Majors for each steal based on the Run Expectancy Matrix. Here is the table for the value of different steal situations and results (RE=Run Expectancy, or run value added or lost by the result):
| Successful Steals | Caught Stealing | ||||||
| Outs | 0 | 1 | 2 | Outs | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| RE Added Stealing 2nd | .243 | .159 | .102 | RE Lost CS 2nd | -.640 | -.444 | -.240 |
| RE Added Stealing 3rd | .272 | .270 | .031 | RE Lost CS 3rd | -.883 | -.603 | -.342 |
Jose Reyes added the most value in baseball with his steals, adding 4.2 runs over the course of the season (he stole bases at an 85% clip in 46 attempts). Over the course of a season, that is a little bit less than half of a win for a team (that is however a decent chunk of value added to the players total value). Just another piece to add to the conversation in terms of player value and evaluation.
If you haven’t been following the draft tracker on the site, here is a quick update for you: The Reds have signed their first 12 round picks, including supplemental rounders. They came in $92,900 under their allotted budget, meaning they can use that money to spend on guys after round 10 ($100,000 limit on those guys, anything over that counts toward the budget). With the 5% leeway, the Reds technically have $424,890 in ‘extra money’ to spend on players before they will be punished.
Baseball America has up its list (with video links for most guys) of the Top 20 international free agents from this years class. Go check it out.
Last weekend Didi Gregorius made a fantastic play in Chattanooga. I tweeted it, but if you haven’t seen it, take a look (excuse the commercial, his play is at 30 seconds in):
Schedule for the next week or so:
- Weekend update with pictures and video from Randy’s trip to watch the Blue Wahoos this past week.
- Game Breakdown: Chad Rogers
- Meet your relievers: Drew Hayes and Chris Manno (maybe someone else too, depends on how those two go and my time constraints).