While I think that almost all of us understand that the Reds are incredibly unlikely to bring Shin-Soo Choo back, it does leave up the question of what exactly the Reds are going to do with the center field position. At Redsfest Bryan Price said that the Reds believed that Billy Hamilton would be ready to take over in center field in the spring, but also noted that maybe they would need a backup plan just in case he wasn’t.
The Billy Hamilton Plan
So, let’s first take a look at what the Reds first plan seems to be, and that is Billy Hamilton. Clearly his speed is something we all know about. It is literally game changing in all parts of the game. It allows him to hit better (defenses play a step in, giving them less reaction time and time to cut the ball off), puts pressure on the pitcher and catcher on the basepaths and allows him to track down all kinds of flying objects in the outfield. But those things only matter so much. You also need to be able to hit, and Hamilton didn’t exactly light up Triple-A last season. That of course doesn’t tell us the entire story though.
From the start of July through the end of the season with the Reds, Hamilton hit .280/.327/.355. From a hitting standpoint, those numbers are good enough for a guy like Hamilton. His on-base percentage though was a bit lower than you would like to see from a leadoff hitter, which is where Bryan Price implied he would be hitting when he was in the lineup. Hamilton talked about his on-base percentage at Redsfest both times I had a chance to hear him being interviewed and he noted that while he doesn’t expect to replicate the .420 mark that Choo had, that his goal is to work hard to improve upon what he did in that category in 2013. That is a good sign, that he understands how important it is to just on base and that he wants to work on doing just that and he has shown success in higher, sometimes much higher on-base skills.
It is still rather early in the offseason, so there aren’t many projection systems out just yet. The two that are out though are in near agreement on what Hamilton will hit, with both being within 3 points in AVG, OBP and SLG in the .250/.305/.338 range. If Hamilton were to produce that line, it wouldn’t be shocking, but the two systems come to the same numbers a bit differently. The Steamer system and Oliver system have the same walk rate projections, but different strikeout rates and BABIP projections that lead to their numbers. Steamer has an 18.8% strikeout rate, but just a .300 BABIP. Oliver on the flip side shows a 24.3% strikeout rate, but a .330 BABIP. What would a mix of these two systems with the “best” outcome from each category turn out?
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 564 | 514 | 140 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 106 | .272 | .327 | .377 |
If Hamilton could pull that line out, he would be a borderline All-Star when you add in his base running and defense. While the on-base percentage is still a little bit lower than you would like, although eerily the exact same as he posted from July through the end of his season in 2013, with what he can bring on the base paths it would be enough in my opinion.
If Hamilton is more likely to be the guy who hits .250/.305/.338 on the season, then it is likely best that he spends at least the first part of the season in Louisville working on his game and getting better prepared for the second half with the Reds.
The non-Hamilton plan
The first option, since we know about him and already have him under control, is Chris Heisey. Heisey projects much like Hamilton in the average and on-base departments, but would provide quite a bit more power. Defensively, Heisey would be a downgrade to Hamilton, who shows big range, but Heisey would hold his own as a defender at the position. On the bases he would also be a downgrade to Hamilton, though Heisey has been a good base runner in the past. While I don’t believe that Heisey is the perfect guy to fill in with, as long as he doesn’t hit above 6th in the lineup, it wouldn’t be the worst option if the Reds deem Hamilton to need some more time in the minor leagues.
Skip Schumaker was recently brought in by the Reds and has plenty of experience in center, including 29 games there last season with the Dodgers. While he is going to be a below-average defender at the position, he could always platoon some with Heisey in larger ballparks. Offensively he would provide a solid average and some on-base skills that aren’t likely to be there with the other options. Like Heisey, I don’t think he is the perfect guy to fill in, but there are worse options out there and if used right, could be used well as a fill in until the team decides that Hamilton is ready to take over full time.
There was talk last offseason that Jay Bruce could perhaps be an option in center if Choo wasn’t able to handle the position defensively. While it would be quite surprising to see the Reds move Bruce to center until Hamilton were ready, other teams have moved very good players around the diamond to help improve the team (Cabrera and Trout have both moved in past seasons). While the downgrades would be there in base running and defense, Bruce will very likely far outproduce Hamilton at the plate.
Free agency/trade options. There could still be someone out there on the market who could help bridge the gap. Fans have openly talked about moving Phillips to the Yankees, who have a glut of outfielders. Walt could always have a move up his sleeve and pull out a trade that no one saw coming like he did when he acquired Mat Latos from the Padres. Then there is the group of free agents, ever dwindling as it is, that could be mined perhaps even for a platoon partner to line up with a Schumaker or Heisey to split duties.